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Fan Duel Win Totals -- Jazz at 27.5 wins

SoberasHotRod said:
Good point. How many extra wins per year do you think we will get because of our extra home court advantage.
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It is already accounted for in the numbers of existing Jazz players and thus is already baked into the numbers for the most part....but to answer your question, the Jazz win approximately 3 more games each year due to the extra home court advantage.
 
KqWIN said:
Keep in mind, this is very rudimentary. I wouldn't really call it a model...but I think that range you came up with is pretty fair and reflects what we're seeing Vegas. Everyone has our line at around 29.5....I would take the under personally but I think we've found a reasonable ball park.

I think the higher outcomes are not impossible, but they will also likely be blocked by grimey tanking activities at the end of the years. For example, this team has the ability to become a play in level team if we play all our best players a lot and Key makes a big jump....but we're unlikely to even allow that possibility to happen. We tanked hard two years in a row where the incentives were less, I'd expect to do it once again.

Key is probably my favorite to lead the team in minutes this season, he's definitely a big swing point. I might have to do a case study on guys who had similar early careers....guys who received a ton of opportunity but were also very bad during their rookie years. There's guys like Fox and Garland who got a lot better, but also guys like Burke and Mudiay. I'll have to do a deeper dive to see what we can expect.
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I started to look for Darko comps for Keyonte as well, but didn't find anything worth discussing. If you take Keyonte's year in perspective, he started the year ok at a -2, so a little better than expected for a rookie, but then struggled to rookie expectation levels (-3), then he started to make some progress to about a -2 DARKO (similar to Clarkson), but then they started sitting Lauri and everyone and the load was too much for Keyonte and he dropped way down. My guess is if we kept Lauri and Clarkson in the rotation for the whole season and lightened his load a little he would have ended up at -2 or better.

I'm pretty sure If Keyonte is still playing at -3.8 DARKO level next year, that Hardy isn't going to play him the highest minutes on the team. So that's another consideration.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I started to look for Darko comps for Keyonte as well, but didn't find anything worth discussing. If you take Keyonte's year in perspective, he started the year ok at a -2, so a little better than expected for a rookie, but then struggled to rookie expectation levels (-3), then he started to make some progress to about a -2 DARKO (similar to Clarkson), but then they started sitting Lauri and everyone and the load was too much for Keyonte and he dropped way down. My guess is if we kept Lauri and Clarkson in the rotation for the whole season and lightened his load a little he would have ended up at -2 or better.

I'm pretty sure If Keyonte is still playing at -3.8 DARKO level next year, that Hardy isn't going to play him the highest minutes on the team. So that's another consideration.
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I'm pretty sure initial values for rookies are basically place holders, so I wouldn't put too much stock into that....but I'd agree that he's probably going to be much better than that his rookie year. What's difficult for Keyonte is that he plays such an outsized role. Even if he's not a bad player, we're asking him to do one of the hardest things in the NBA (be a lead ball handler) and also not asking him to play much defense. That's just a recipe for negative unless that player is truly special.
 
Hedda Gambler said:
Really? I can't see a single game we will go into as favourites until the Pistons game in December.
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The first Spurs game is a pretty easy W. They will be coming off a B2B against OKC on the road.

And it's hard to say how hard the schedule is until we know how many opponents are on B2B's or not when facing them.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
The first Spurs game is a pretty easy W. They will be coming off a B2B against OKC on the road.

And it's hard to say how hard the schedule is until we know how many opponents are on B2B's or not when facing them.
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I didn't check the opponents schedule, so you are probably correct there, even though I think the Spurs will be much better than us this season .
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
The first Spurs game is a pretty easy W. They will be coming off a B2B against OKC on the road.

And it's hard to say how hard the schedule is until we know how many opponents are on B2B's or not when facing them.
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Playing SAS 4 times before Thanksgiving. We do worse than split those and I think we are doing pretty good with the tank. Early schedule should benefit the tank.
 
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