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14th Tank Platoon

Hack said:
ahhh. But percentages can lie.


Since 1995 the odds of winning the number 1 overrall pick have been roughly the same. Its changed a few times because of an addition of a team to the lottery, bringing the number of lottery teams from 13-14. But they didn't change much. The 1st slot changed from 22.5% to 25% etc..But for the purpose of the argument we will start it at 1995 so we can get a bigger picture.

The odds for winning the lottery are shown in the table primetime made. I dont think I need to show them because you should know what they are. They are on page one in case you dont.

This is how many times each slot has actually won the 1st pick overall since 1995

1. 2 times
2. 2 times
3. 6 times
4. Zero times
5. 4 times
6. 2 times
7. 1 time
8. 1 time
9. 1 time
10. Zero times
11. Zero times
12. Zero times
13. Zero times
14. Zero times

So you see, even though the first slot has a 25% chance of winning the 1st pick, its actually only won it 10.5% of the time.
1st - 10.5%
2nd -10.5%
3rd - 31.6%
4th - 0%
5th - 21%
6th - 10.5%
7th - 5%
8th - 5%
9th - 5%
10th - 0%
11th - 0%
12th - 0%
13th - 0%
14th - 0%

Thats whats actually happened. So the percentages can lie.

Personally, Id rather not even have the 4 slot. Id prefer the 3rd or the 5th. I dont really care about first or second. Plus that ship has sailed.

Also, if you look at how each slot has faired to win the 2nd or 3rd lottery slot, it shows that chances are still good 1-5. But for example, winning the 3rd slot doesnt ever really happen passed the 5th slot. Winning 2nd hasnt won much past the 7th slot. But that whole range is pretty evenly distributed.


Its just a lot of luck. Anyone can win 1-6, perhaps 1-9.
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First thing I learnt in Business Statistics class 'Past results have no relation to current tests'.
The percentages are given too you. Unless the magic ping pong ball fairy really hates the team that finishes 4th to last.
 
ljnapoli said:
First thing I learnt in Business Statistics class 'Past results have no relation to current tests'.
The percentages are given too you. Unless the magic ping pong ball fairy really hates the team that finishes 4th to last.
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I only posted what I did to point out that its not any kind of guarantee that having a top slot will result in a lottery win, and to give hope to Ugli, and point out that our chances wont be dead in 1-6 range.

Also, life is not predictable. Ping pong balls arent predictable. Saying what can happen doesnt predict what does happen. In order for the statistics to play out the way you think they should, you would play it a lot of times. We arent doing that. Its one year.
 
Hack said:
I only posted what I did to point out that its not any kind of guarantee that having a top slot will result in a lottery win, and to give hope to Ugli, and point out that our chances wont be dead in 1-6 range.

Also, life is not predictable. Ping pong balls arent predictable. Saying what can happen doesnt predict what does happen. In order for the statistics to play out the way you think they should, you would play it a lot of times. We arent doing that. Its one year.
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Yeah, but you said that you would rather have the 5th pick than the 4th pick...
 
zbone said:
Hack genuinely does not understand what probability is. Leave him alone.
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Doublea said:
Yeah, but you said that you would rather have the 5th pick than the 4th pick...
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ya, not hard to understand. Its a game of luck. So far no luck on the 4th pick. Again, we arent talking about doing this thousands of time. Its one time.

1st slot vs field so far...2-14

Somewhere between 2-6 > 1st slot

if we are talking about winning the first pick.
 
b_line said:
Next Derrick Williams, tbh
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Nothing like Derrick Williams tbh.

Williams was a great college scorer who wasn't good defensively and was an actual tweener.

Gordon is a great college defender who isn't good offensively, has legit PF size and can guard the perimeter.

Only thing that is similar is that they are athletic (Gordon is way more athletic though IMO) and play PF.

Gordon is a defensive oriented Blake Griffin. Doesn't have the natural feel around the basket like Griffin does, but is a much better defender.
 
Hack said:
ya, not hard to understand. Its a game of luck. So far no luck on the 4th pick. Again, we arent talking about doing this thousands of time. Its one time.

1st slot vs field so far...2-14

Somewhere between 2-6 > 1st slot

if we are talking about winning the first pick.
Click to expand...

Obviously. Only a moron wouldn't believe these facts.
 
Hack said:
You are right. Its a guarantee that if you have the most ping pong balls then the 1st pick in the bag.

Thats a fact.
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I never said that, it gives you a higher probability, which is something you always want. It's interesting how the person who is wrong in an argument always seems to pull up false facts and exaggerations once they start to realize that they are wrong.
 
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