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2023 NBA Draft Megathread

KqWIN said:
I wouldn't say they are less relevant that the last 1-2 drafts because we don't even know if players from the last 1-2 drafts are busts yet. But too each their own. Does data count from earlier times? I don't see why not and I don't see a reason to cut off at one specific year or another. Unless you think something has drastically changed in overseas development, I don't know why those years would not be relevant.

Not enough for me to say that overseas players are worse than American prospects, but kudos for actually coming to the table with something. I genuinely respect the effort. I'm just not personally not convinced that overseas prospects are better or worse than their American counterpoints. If I like or dislike a player. it's not going to be on the basis of them being international or not.
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Just for the conversations sake I will go back 20 years total.
 
I’m counting 16 total hits out of 60 pre-2015. That’s on the generous side too. That’s considering guys like Fournier, Saric, Mirotic and Sefolosha as hits, etc.

So in total that’s 20 hits out of 85 in the last 20 years. Still a 23.5% hit rate which is not great at all. That comes out to exactly 1 hit per year on average.
 
Just did a quick run through of non-international players drafted since 2003.

I counted around 240 out of 515 drafted total that would be considered hits. That’s a 46.6% hit rate total. I understand this is just based merely on my opinion only.

Let’s say I’m off by a couple percent on the non-international players on the high side and I’m off by a couple percent on the international players on the low side.

That would still put it at around a 26% hit rate vs a 44% hit rate. My quick hypothesis would be that the hit rate for non-international is almost double that of an international player on the high side.
 
Elizah Huge said:
Since 2015 there has been a total of 25 international players drafted in the first round. Only 4 of them are any good.

That’s a 16% hit percentage. The only hits are Doncic, Giddey, Porzingis and Sengun.
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In fairness, I'd consider Sabonis a Euro, and Killian Hayes showed some signs of life last year, but I get your point. There are a few others that are wait-and-see (e.g., Jovic, Dieng, etc.).
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Wtf is a "hit"?
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Exactly. If you trade and get something of value then I also consider it a hit. Exum would be a hit technically...or at least a neutral return or something like that.

If a team can avoid "bad" misses and narrow it to neutral and hits only then you will have a great team eventually because that is better than what most teams do. I would NOT want to put a rookie in unrealistic circumstances. Most players crumble. If a player high up on a draft board doesn't have the mental fortitude to succeed then I would trade out of that pick almost every time.

There are plenty of All-stars that occurred late in the draft selection were the expectations were low. I like Bilal at 28 because the expectations is low and he could succeed. If he gets picked at 9 he will crumble under the pressure.

Whereas Taylor Hendricks at the 9th pick could succeed because his role is narrow. Just backup minutes at the 4, play defense and shoot some threes. The pressure is not sky high and unrealistic.
 
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Ferguson_Mellochill said:
In fairness, I'd consider Sabonis a Euro, and Killian Hayes showed some signs of life last year, but I get your point. There are a few others that are wait-and-see (e.g., Jovic, Dieng, etc.).
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In fairness? Sabonis was born in Portland and played at Gonzaga. This isn't a question of heritage, it's a question of competition level and the ability of scouting to assess players in their given context.

And "hit" is defined as the team being happy that they drafted the given player where they were drafted (a squishy definition, but outside of how subjective that is I actually dig it). Hayes ain't that.
 
Elizah Huge said:
Just did a quick run through of non-international players drafted since 2003.

I counted around 240 out of 515 drafted total that would be considered hits. That’s a 46.6% hit rate total. I understand this is just based merely on my opinion only.

Let’s say I’m off by a couple percent on the non-international players on the high side and I’m off by a couple percent on the international players on the low side.

That would still put it at around a 26% hit rate vs a 44% hit rate. My quick hypothesis would be that the hit rate for non-international is almost double that of an international player on the high side.
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And honestly this all makes sense. Its strange anyone would not think that international players are less likely to be good nba players than americans. The NBA is played in america. There are basketball hoops everywhere in america. America loves basketball. America is always the favorite to win the gold medal in the olympics.

I would guess that argentina has a higher bust ratio when they acquire american soccer players. Because americans arent as good at soccer as agentinians are.
 
whatthe said:
Exactly. If you trade and get something of value then I also consider it a hit. Exum would be a hit technically...or at least a neutral return or something like that.

If a team can avoid "bad" misses and narrow it to neutral and hits only then you will have a great team eventually because that is better than what most teams do. I would NOT want to put a rookie in unrealistic circumstances. Most players crumble. If a player high up on a draft board doesn't have the mental fortitude to succeed then I would trade out of that pick almost every time.

There are plenty of All-stars that occurred late in the draft selection were the expectations were low. I like Bilal at 28 because the expectations is low and he could succeed. If he gets picked at 9 he will crumble under the pressure.

Whereas Taylor Hendricks at the 9th pick could succeed because his role is narrow. Just backup minutes at the 4, play defense and shoot some threes. The pressure is not sky high and unrealistic.
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Exum is not a hit. Jazz fans were extremely unhappy about drafting exum.
 
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