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2023 NBA Draft Megathread

I'm not seeing a lot of complete busts out of this draft. There are guys who will not live up to their draft position, but almost the entire first round looks like they belong.
 
With Brice looking like an NBA player the list of potential busts from this draft are dwindling. Even Kris Murray, who would be one of the top guys on the list for me, has had a couple of solid games.

To be fair there are still some guys we haven't seen enough of, which is a bad sign for them. There are also guys who won't improve as expected or fall off a cliff. We probably won't be able to have a really good idea on busts until after next season. As it stands today, there are very few first rounders who I don't think will become NBA rotation level players.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
If there's a surprise player in this draft who would end up going top 5 in a redraft a few years down the line, that player is probably Brice Sensabaugh.
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Ferguson_Mellochill said:
Just a reminder that Brice Sensabaugh is a 19 year-old, 6'6", 230-lb wing with 52/41/83 shooting splits. He should be a bonafide floor spacer and shouldn't be overlooked in the "Who's the best shooter in the draft?" discussion. He's also got potential to improve his strength and athleticism, and he should be able to get to the rim better in the NBA.

If the Jazz are drafting mid-first, he ought to be on people's short list.
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Ferguson_Mellochill said:
I'm genuinely curious to know what the front office thinks about Sensabaugh. He's not a complete player at this point, but he's one of the best shooters and most polished offensive players in the draft.
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Hmm.
 
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One of the rabbit holes I've been looking in to is how to normalize production for low usage players. Specifically as most know I'm a Cason Wallace fan, and his production per minute is low, but mostly because he never touches the ball. OKCs offense runs through SGA and Jalen Williams and Wallace ranks as one of the lowest touches per minute rookies that gets playing time. There is a points per touch metric on NBA.com, but there isn't an assists per touch stat, so I had to create one. Basically I just took the assists/minute and touches/minute to figure out assists/touch. Here are the leaders from the 2023 class:

- Sasser
- Podz
- Porter Jr.
- Andre Jackson Jr
- Scoot
- Keyonte

From here I created a "production per touch" statistic that is calculated as pts + 2.4ast per touch. (2.4 is the average pts per assist). Here are the leaders from the 2023 class:

- Cam Whitmore
- Grady Dick
- Wemby
- Cason Wallace
- Jalen Wilson
- Jordan Hawkins

Lead guards, or guys who take the ball up the floor should probably be put in to a different category for this stat, since they will be penalized for touching the ball during parts of the offense where they shouldn't be expected to produce. On the other hand the counting stats sometimes are swayed in their favor since they have more opportunities to be part of the offense.

Thoughts?
 
SoberasHotRod said:
One of the rabbit holes I've been looking in to is how to normalize production for low usage players. Specifically as most know I'm a Cason Wallace fan, and his production per minute is low, but mostly because he never touches the ball. OKCs offense runs through SGA and Jalen Williams and Wallace ranks as one of the lowest touches per minute rookies that gets playing time. There is a points per touch metric on NBA.com, but there isn't an assists per touch stat, so I had to create one. Basically I just took the assists/minute and touches/minute to figure out assists/touch. Here are the leaders from the 2023 class:

- Sasser
- Podz
- Porter Jr.
- Andre Jackson Jr
- Scoot
- Keyonte

From here I created a "production per touch" statistic that is calculated as pts + 2.4ast per touch. (2.4 is the average pts per assist). Here are the leaders from the 2023 class:

- Cam Whitmore
- Grady Dick
- Wemby
- Cason Wallace
- Jalen Wilson
- Jordan Hawkins

Lead guards, or guys who take the ball up the floor should probably be put in to a different category for this stat, since they will be penalized for touching the ball during parts of the offense where they shouldn't be expected to produce. On the other hand the counting stats sometimes are swayed in their favor since they have more opportunities to be part of the offense.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
That's a great stat to find good trade targets.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
One of the rabbit holes I've been looking in to is how to normalize production for low usage players. Specifically as most know I'm a Cason Wallace fan, and his production per minute is low, but mostly because he never touches the ball. OKCs offense runs through SGA and Jalen Williams and Wallace ranks as one of the lowest touches per minute rookies that gets playing time. There is a points per touch metric on NBA.com, but there isn't an assists per touch stat, so I had to create one. Basically I just took the assists/minute and touches/minute to figure out assists/touch. Here are the leaders from the 2023 class:

- Sasser
- Podz
- Porter Jr.
- Andre Jackson Jr
- Scoot
- Keyonte

From here I created a "production per touch" statistic that is calculated as pts + 2.4ast per touch. (2.4 is the average pts per assist). Here are the leaders from the 2023 class:

- Cam Whitmore
- Grady Dick
- Wemby
- Cason Wallace
- Jalen Wilson
- Jordan Hawkins

Lead guards, or guys who take the ball up the floor should probably be put in to a different category for this stat, since they will be penalized for touching the ball during parts of the offense where they shouldn't be expected to produce. On the other hand the counting stats sometimes are swayed in their favor since they have more opportunities to be part of the offense.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
Good stuff. I love this kind of data
Surprised Grady Dick is so high
Sent from my CPH2451 using Tapatalk
 
Some may depend on the offense and the coach. Some young players may be literally told not to shoot unless it's an uncontested dunk. Some guys are given the green light.
 
Here is the stat for Jazz Players. Stay tuned though because I just read the glossary definition of "touches" which I thought only referred to offensive touches, but it appears it could mean any touches. I'm going to have to figure out how to factor in stocks and rebounds.

1710181830449.png
 
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