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2024-2025 Tank Race

We have a stretch of very winnable games coming up. Winning the last two games really hurts the tank. Before we were hoping to sell off vets to get top 3 lottery odds. Now we might be selling off vets just to ensure we stay bottom 5.
 
Top 3 lottery odds gives us as good of a chance as anyone to land a top 2 pick (27.4%) or top 3 pick (40.1%). Top 5 lottery odds drop us to 21% for a top 2 pick and 31.6% for a top 3 pick.
 
KqWIN said:
Extremely critical time upcoming….surely Hardy and the FO knows what to do right?
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This is where I am skeptical... that they know what to do. They sent Cody to the showcase when we had a game where we'd be favored against Brooklyn and a 50/50 game against Detroit.

If Cody and Collier aren't playing 20 minutes a game at least then we don't know what we are doing. Super negative players are just as powerful as sitting your best players. We need to do both for a couple weeks. Then hopefully the trade deadline does the trick for the remainder of the season.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
This is where I am skeptical... that they know what to do. They sent Cody to the showcase when we had a game where we'd be favored against Brooklyn and a 50/50 game against Detroit.

If Cody and Collier aren't playing 20 minutes a game at least then we don't know what we are doing. Super negative players are just as powerful as sitting your best players. We need to do both for a couple weeks. Then hopefully the trade deadline does the trick for the remainder of the season.
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I think you're right and I hate it. Hardy in the players may get some satisfaction by beating up on the worst of the worst, but it will come a serious cost. I would live with it if it's the rookie contract guys leading us to victory, but I fear the vets will have an impact.

I also don't buy "we're doing it to showcase trade value". It's just the human element, hard to bench healthy players. It's understandable to some degree, but again....very harmful to the franchise.
 
KqWIN said:
I think you're right and I hate it. Hardy in the players may get some satisfaction by beating up on the worst of the worst, but it will come a serious cost. I would live with it if it's the rookie contract guys leading us to victory, but I fear the vets will have an impact.

I also don't buy "we're doing it to showcase trade value". It's just the human element, hard to bench healthy players. It's understandable to some degree, but again....very harmful to the franchise.
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I think Svi could be partly a showcase because him and Juzang seem to alternate in that rotation spot some but both are deserving of time ahead of Cody (as almost all NBA players are lol). I think a smart team that needs a backup center and some shooting would throw a second or two at us with a contract for Svi and Drew. Like Philly should be in on that since Embiid is so in and out and Drummond has been *** this year.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I think Svi could be partly a showcase because him and Juzang seem to alternate in that rotation spot some but both are deserving of time ahead of Cody (as almost all NBA players are lol). I think a smart team that needs a backup center and some shooting would throw a second or two at us with a contract for Svi and Drew. Like Philly should be in on that since Embiid is so in and out and Drummond has been *** this year.
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I think showcasing is real, but it's probably highly overstated. Don't think teams do it as much as is said and I don't think the effects of "showcasing" are as impactful as people say they are either. It would take a big change over an extended period of time to really change a perception of a player, like Collins. Not sure anything Svi does is really going change a FO opinion on him. A guy like Eubanks played 150+ games the previous two seasons, I think teams know who he is.

Reality is that the biggest reason why these guys are playing are that the coach wants to play them....which isn't crazy at all. The crazier part is that we have a league where a large chunk of the league should be losing on purpose.
 
KqWIN said:
I think showcasing is real, but it's probably highly overstated. Don't think teams do it as much as is said and I don't think the effects of "showcasing" are as impactful as people say they are either. It would take a big change over an extended period of time to really change a perception of a player, like Collins. Not sure anything Svi does is really going change a FO opinion on him. A guy like Eubanks played 150+ games the previous two seasons, I think teams know who he is.

Reality is that the biggest reason why these guys are playing are that the coach wants to play them....which isn't crazy at all. The crazier part is that we have a league where a large chunk of the league should be losing on purpose.
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Yeah its likely that Svi and Juzang alternate because the coach feels they both are deserving of time. I guess its only "showcasing" in that having them in the rotation keeps them relevant and their trade value may be boosted versus just straight benching them. It isn't the reason they are playing though so its not really showcasing.
 
Two wins in a row do not help us, what the ****? Send Sensabaugh back down to the G league or whatever, get him out of there. He is killing us with his great play and scoring. We need the L's!!
 
SoberasHotRod said:
The Jazz are going to need to hope to get lucky. That was always the case, but I think 5th best odds is very likely and we really need to get a top 2 (maybe top 3) pick for this season to feel worth it.
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There is roughly 6% difference in chances to land top 2 pick with 5th best odds vs best odds. People act like that matters but it doesnt for a single draw. You need to get really lucky either way if top 2 is all that matters.

The margin of error for a single cointoss is always 50%. Both heads and tails have 50% chance of appearing but the result of one toss will always be 100 to 0.

Thats the problem of the lottery, and why you shouldnt sacrifice too much to jump 1 or 2 spots. Being the worst team really doesnt pay off anymore, when even the 5th worst gets just 3.5% less lotto balls.
 
HermanG said:
There is roughly 6% difference in chances to land top 2 pick with 5th best odds vs best odds. People act like that matters but it doesnt for a single draw. You need to get really lucky either way if top 2 is all that matters.

The margin of error for a single cointoss is always 50%. Both heads and tails have 50% chance of appearing but the result of one toss will always be 100 to 0.

Thats the problem of the lottery, and why you shouldnt sacrifice too much to jump 1 or 2 spots. Being the worst team really doesnt pay off anymore, when even the 5th worst gets just 3.5% less lotto balls.
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Good post.

I can't really get behind all the sky-is-falling rhetoric. Our dream is to get an MVP (or at least All-Pro) caliber player out of this draft. The odds of this are low, well below 50%, even if we secure the league's worst record. While our odds of getting such a player are worse without the top lotto odds, the difference is not as high as I think people are imagining.

I can't really get on board with the idea that we've "wasted the season" or "ruined our future" by moving from one low-likelihood scenario to a somewhat lower low-likelihood scenario.
 
HermanG said:
There is roughly 6% difference in chances to land top 2 pick with 5th best odds vs best odds. People act like that matters but it doesnt for a single draw. You need to get really lucky either way if top 2 is all that matters.

The margin of error for a single cointoss is always 50%. Both heads and tails have 50% chance of appearing but the result of one toss will always be 100 to 0.

Thats the problem of the lottery, and why you shouldnt sacrifice too much to jump 1 or 2 spots. Being the worst team really doesnt pay off anymore, when even the 5th worst gets just 3.5% less lotto balls.
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No, people act like it matters for a reason. With the worst record you are guaranteed at least the 5th pick. But with the 6th worst record you are statistically more likely to end up with the pick in the 6-10th range. That would be pretty disappointing if after such an ugly tanking season the Jazz would end up having the 5th or 6th worst record and will be getting the 9th pick. Don't you think so?
 
KqWIN said:
Hopefully NOP is primed for a nice little winning streak.


View: https://x.com/willguillory/status/1876345419833450959?s=46/
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Their schedule gets charmin soft too... so if Zion can come back and help them beat the tankers that would be great.

As of right now I'm looking at NO as a team that can pass us. I am also looking at Brooklyn as the team that could jump ahead of us. I think 4th/5th is kinda where we settle in. The Blazers lack the organizational leadership to truly tank and too many people are fighting for their jobs. Feels like they have and interim owner, GM, and coach.
 
jazznik said:
No, people act like it matters for a reason. With the worst record you are guaranteed at least the 5th pick. But with the 6th worst record you are statistically more likely to end up with the pick in the 6-10th range. That would be pretty disappointing if after such an ugly tanking season the Jazz would end up having the 5th or 6th worst record and will be getting the 9th pick. Don't you think so?
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Such a silly post. It was 1st vs 5th odds, not 6th, and the premise was that we must land a top 2 pick. Pick floor seems pointless in that context.

Also FYI the average expected draft position for the worst record is 3.7, and for 5th worst its 5.0.... but thats besides the point if the argument is that we must land Flagg/Harper.
 
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