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2024-2025 Tank Race

SoberasHotRod said:
NBA.com has team win% since 1996-1997, so the past 28 years. There has only been one other year (1997) that has had more than 3 teams finish with a record of 0.250 or lower. The average number of teams that finish with a record of 0.250 or lower is 1.89. (Yes, I've had a lot of time on my hands pretending to be busy at work today).

Either teams are going to start winning games because this pace is unsustainable, or we are looking at the largest group of disgusting tanking teams in 27 years.
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Building off this thought, I used B-Ref to see the standings on December 30 in each of those years (a few years of lockout means a few years' data were missing).

There was only one year that was close to the situation this season (with five teams under .250); that was 1997, with 4 teams under .250 at this point of the season along with two other teams that were at .250 exactly. That season led into the 1998 draft (Danny Manning, Rik Smits, Charles Smith, Chris Morris, Mitch Richmond, ...).

Two other years also had as many as 4 teams under .250: 2012 (Anthony Bennett, Victor Oladipo, Otto Porter, Cody Zeller, Alex Len, ...) and 2023 (Risacher, Sarr, Sheppard, Castle, Holland, ...).

Frankly, I'm surprised to see that these drafts were the seasons that had so many teams toward the bottom. Maybe it means that there's not really much connection between draft quality and the commitment of teams to losing.

During Wemby's upcoming draft season, only one team was below a .250 winning percentage on December 30, and Spurs themselves were at .343.

The previous year (with Chet, Paolo), there were two teams below .250. Thunder were at .353.
 
idiot said:
Building off this thought, I used B-Ref to see the standings on December 30 in each of those years (a few years of lockout means a few years' data were missing).

There was only one year that was close to the situation this season (with five teams under .250); that was 1997, with 4 teams under .250 at this point of the season along with two other teams that were at .250 exactly. That season led into the 1998 draft (Danny Manning, Rik Smits, Charles Smith, Chris Morris, Mitch Richmond, ...).

Two other years also had as many as 4 teams under .250: 2012 (Anthony Bennett, Victor Oladipo, Otto Porter, Cody Zeller, Alex Len, ...) and 2023 (Risacher, Sarr, Sheppard, Castle, Holland, ...).

Frankly, I'm surprised to see that these drafts were the seasons that had so many teams toward the bottom. Maybe it means that there's not really much connection between draft quality and the commitment of teams to losing.

During Wemby's upcoming draft season, only one team was below a .250 winning percentage on December 30, and Spurs themselves were at .343.

The previous year (with Chet, Paolo), there were two teams below .250. Thunder were at .353.
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Wow, nice work!!!

I've looked in to and noticed the same thing as you, that there is not a positive correlation between draft class and number of tanking teams, and if anything there is a reverse correlation.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Wow, nice work!!!

I've looked in to and noticed the same thing as you, that there is not a positive correlation between draft class and number of tanking teams, and if anything there is a reverse correlation.
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Yeah, here's another point at which the "general wisdom" about tanking doesn't really match the data very well.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
We've been doing a fine job of tanking so far, and in most years we would be set up very nicely for a top 3 odds. We happen to be tanking in a year with more really bad teams than the NBA has seen for at least the last 10 years.
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Is it a surprise, though? Teams like Washington and Brooklyn have been shedding their good players to make sure they are terrible. And Ainge instead held on his good vets, resigned Markkanen and added Eubanks and Svi. He has done everything in his power to make tanking as difficult as possible.
 
Toronto lost by 54 points lol.
They only scored 71
 
UTA loses by 16
NOP loses by 11
TOR wins by 17
WAS wins by 18

The Wizards beating Charlotte helped build their confidence, so that's one good thing that happened.

NOP now has a commanding lead of 2.5 games. Teams 2-5 in the tank race are all within a half game.
 
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