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2024-2025 Tank Race

jazznik said:
Yesterday Washington played Houston and put out the following starting five: Sarr - Kyshawn George - Kuzma (they limited him to 17 minutes) - Coulibaly - Carrington. The Wizards lost by 23. THAT is how you should tank.
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The fact that Lauri was questionable with back spasms and played last night tells me we only kind of understand how grimy we need to get. That is an injury you can EASILY justify and extra day or two even if he is relatively pain free. We barely survived but we can't have any more of the games like Dallas.
 
jazznik said:
Yesterday Washington played Houston and put out the following starting five: Sarr - Kyshawn George - Kuzma (they limited him to 17 minutes) - Coulibaly - Carrington. The Wizards lost by 23. THAT is how you should tank.
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They also suck *** even if they played their fully healthy roster, so it doesnt really matter. They are going to lose to Houston 9/10 times no matter who they play.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Yeah I am more a fan of the Presti method of "here is the 5 year plan and we do not deviate" but there is some bias there because it has worked so well. I also thought it was dumb they didn't at least add a cheap big to supplement the roster a bit because they are so "disciplined". So i think there is merit to Ainge's opportunistic approach.

I think my big criticism of the approach Ainge has is just overconcerned with the dimes and nickels versus the dollars at times. Like don't trade Bogey for KO... you had a roster hole which is how you gain a lot of ground in the tank race (we didn't know walker would be good immediately). Wanted full value for Mike and others rather than settling earlier (maybe he didn't have the opportunities... I think he did). Adding Svi and Drew this year may pay off and not hurt the tank too much but both have been good and provide more infrastructure for winning. If they simply trade one player and manage vet time with Sexton/Lauri/Kessler AND (the real key) prioritize 20 minutes for both Collier and Williams every night no matter what... then the tank should be fine. Neither guy should spend a minute in the G. I don't care what is better for their development. They are nickels and dimes and a top 5 pick is the dollar (maybe quarter).

So overall I appreciate what I think the franchise is trying to do as the last few years of DL was terrible and frustrating. It’s nice at least to have a little bit of proactivity even if it misses the mark at times.
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Did Presti really have a 5-year plan that he didn’t deviate from? Their team made the playoffs after trading Paul George and Russell Westbrook.
 
Elizah Huge said:
Did Presti really have a 5-year plan that he didn’t deviate from? Their team made the playoffs after trading Paul George and Russell Westbrook.
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Its was using it more as a figure of speech. Not literal. Just his mindset is "this is the plan, this is the timing/steps, don't jump at something outside the plan".
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
They also suck *** even if they played their fully healthy roster, so it doesn't really matter. They are going to lose to Houston 9/10 times no matter who they play.
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But that wasn't the only game when Washington put a young lineup on the floor: that has been their strategy for a while. You can be a bad team and still catch a good team having a random bad shooting night or miss a couple of players - and win. The Wizards are not content with losing to good teams 9/10 times: this would add up to 3-5 extra wins per season and those extra wins do matter.

Washington wants to lose 10/10, while the Jazz are seemingly OK with 8/10.
 
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To add some statistical context: right now the Wizards have the worst record and the Jazz - the 5th worst. If the draft was held today it would mean that the Wizards statistically most likely would be picking in the 1-4 range, while the Jazz - in the 6-9 range.
 
jazznik said:
To add some statistical context: right now the Wizards have the worst record and the Jazz - the 5th worst. If the draft was held today it would mean that the Wizards statistically most likely would be picking in the 1-4 range, while the Jazz - in the 6-9 range.
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I think the weighted average is the proper way to evaluate it. That would 3.7 vs 5. The floor of the pick being 5 is the biggest benefit imo. Sliding to 7/8 would suck. They'd need to hit on low odds to really benefit.

I'm fine with them threading the needle a bit by keeping Lauri/Walker/Sexton but they need to really maximize their chances at the 3rd and 4th best odds by playing Williams/Collier/Flip and just bypass Svi/Juzang/Eubanks/Mills when possible. I'd also like more maintenance on injuries but that will come (too late?).
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
It makes sense because the one player you were going to be able to retain is Rudy and he was older and you didn't know Lauri was gonna be an All-Star. It could also make sense to do one of the trades and build around the other... because multiple things can make sense. But building around Rudy and Mike Conley plus the stuff we got back had its own drawbacks.

I give zero effs what an Athletic article says. I give less effs than that about what Spence thinks. I will listen to his show because he gets great guests that provide insight but he clearly has a bone to pick with the current regime.

The reason we toiled in between strategies was pretty simple. Lauri/Walker were way better than they thought and they didn't cut deep enough early enough the first year. They continued the following year because they wanted to see if they could do the fast rebuild and the draft was terrible... so they actually might want to make the play in and convey the pick they gave up. And look... I'm one of the guys that was like "ummmm guys this is still a 35 win team" so I'm not excusing them but that is what the thought process was. If they had gotten lucky and landed a top 4 pick in either draft things might be a little different.

There are up seasons and down seasons. They could have tried to continue Don and Rudy but it was so clearly over with those two. The prior group did nothing to build the pipeline so either we had to invest more draft capital (the lifeblood of a non-FA market) or rearrange some deck chairs and hope that the issues that had been bubbling for years unresolved would resolve themselves. I have it on very good authority that the locker room and org was a completely unhappy mess. It was a perfectly fine decision to blow it up for the premium they got. Because they did so well in the trades it made it hard to bottom all the way out. The drafting has been spotty but that is how drafting goes.
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I dont think anyone believes that keeping Donny and Rudy together was a good option. That ship had sailed. But no matter how you spin it, we sat in limbo for two years twiddling thumbs and then gutting a team. Once you blow it up, not committing to a direction made no sense and time has proven that IMO. Going all in on Wemby was not a bad idea. And you obviously can just blow people off that don't agree with your narrative but anyone with objectivity about where we are at has to admit they make very good points - it is not like they are just stabbing in the dark. I am not arguing that there was only one way to move forward with Rudy and Donny because I agree that Donny wanted out (though I think he would have stayed and played) and I dont think Danny ever liked Rudy. That is fine and it is his job to decide. But there have been some huge missteps in this process. If you are going to blow it up do so. If you want to rebuild around an all-star, there were lots and lots of options and assets to do so.
 
gomretat said:
I dont think anyone believes that keeping Donny and Rudy together was a good option. That ship had sailed. But no matter how you spin it, we sat in limbo for two years twiddling thumbs and then gutting a team. Once you blow it up, not committing to a direction made no sense and time has proven that IMO. Going all in on Wemby was not a bad idea. And you obviously can just blow people off that don't agree with your narrative but anyone with objectivity about where we are at has to admit they make very good points - it is not like they are just stabbing in the dark. I am not arguing that there was only one way to move forward with Rudy and Donny because I agree that Donny wanted out (though I think he would have stayed and played) and I dont think Danny ever liked Rudy. That is fine and it is his job to decide. But there have been some huge missteps in this process. If you are going to blow it up do so. If you want to rebuild around an all-star, there were lots and lots of options and assets to do so.
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I mean I admitted they didn't cut hard enough. But the blow up it moves were the correct moves (Rudy and Don anyway). I think they thought they had more time in 22-23 and they started out 10-3 or whatevs when they had a rough schedule. Then hosting the AS game and Lauri is in contention... it became a PR nightmare to take the foot off the gas... a nightmare they should have endured. Had they committed to the follow through of trading Mike/Bogey and whatevs to LA for Russ and one pick then I think they cement their place in the tank race. Move JC too. Yup they did fumble that part of the situation... but it was more likely to yield a lesser prospect than Wemby but maybe a better prospect than Taylor.

Last year I didn't really care much what they did because the draft was not good at the top.

They are not without fault... and its been frustrating... hopefully they right the ship and get lucky. If they get lucky its funny how much more smart they will look in the Athletic articles and such.
 
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