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#3 Draft Picks over the last 30 years

BabyPeterzz

BabyPeterzz

Well-Known Member
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I lifted this from RealGM. Look like Favors success has the numbers behind it.



1981 Buck Williams ----- 3 time allstar
1982 Dominique Wilkins ----- 9 time allstar
1983 Rodney McCray ----- average player
1984 Michael Jordan ---- enough said
1985 Benoit Benjamin ---- Average player
1986 Chris Washburn ----- Bust
1987 Dennis Hopson ---- Bust
1988 Charles Smith ---- Above average, good scorer
1989 Sean Elliot ---- 2 time allstar
1990 Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf ---Above average
1991 Billy Owens ---- Average player
1992 Christian Laettner --- 1 time allstar
1993 Anfernee Hardaway ---- 4 times allstar
1994 Grant Hill --- 7 times allstar
1995 Jerry Stackhouse --- 2 time allstar
1996 Shareef Abdur-Rahim --- 1 time allstar
1997 Chauncey Billups ---- 5 times allstar
1998 Raef LaFrentz ----- Average player
1999 Baron Davis ---- 2 time allstar
2000 Darius Miles --- Average player
2001 Pau Gasol ---- 4 time allstar
2002 Mike Dunleavy jr --- Average player
2003 Carmello Anthony --- 4 times allstar
2004 Ben Gordon --- above average
2005 Deron Williams --- 2 time allstar
2006 Adam Morrison --- Bust
2007 Al Horford --- 2 time allstar
2008 O.J Mayo --- Above average
2009 James Harden --- Average
2010 Derrick Favors ----
 
Ironic, your first entry is Buck Williams - that was the last player that The Nets developed into an all-star.
 
OK I did some analysis just for ***** and giggles and here is what I got.

I predict he will become a, Above Average, borderline All-Star player.

I assigned each category a score as follows:

Bust, -5
Average, 1
Above Avg, 3
1-3 time AS, 5
4-7 time AS, 7
8+ AS, 9
MJ, 10

Then I applied that to the list and got the following data:

Average of the list = 3.38 (just north of above average player)
Mode = 5 (most players on this list scored a 5, which is 1-3 time All-Star)

Here is the breakdown by score:

-5 = 3 players
1 = 7
3 = 4
5 = 8
7 = 5
9 = 1
10 = 1

All scoring from 1-5 = 19 (66% of the list)

So based on this he is most likely to end up somewhere between 1 and 5 (Average to up to 3x All-star). Based on the mode and the average I think he has a solid shot of being an Above Average player, borderline All-Star.

Least likely to be MJ or more than 8X All-Star
2nd Least Likely to be a bust.


Nowhere near scientific but was kind of fun.
 
This data is good reference. I think my gut for Favors is that he's very likely a 3-5 player (on "LRS" - the LogGrad's rating system.) I'm convinced after one game (and his NJ stats) that he's not a bust. But his ceiling is related to one thing - work ethic. I think we'll know who he's going to be after his first NBA off-season. I think trading Milsap is absolutely OUT OF THE QUESTION if Milsap and Favors turn out to be good (and hopefully best) pals. I want Milsap to be the work-ethic example. Milsap is a 3-4 on LRS and what would Favors be if he learns Milsaps work ethic??? (Walt Perrin hinted at this answer.)
 
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