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538 article on "alpha" players

Ellis269 said:
Goes to show just how good that 2012 Heat team was. Damn. According to these metrics, Lebron and DWade graded out higher than any other duo to win championships over the last two decades.
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Nah, Lebron said it wasnt a super team so it wasnt right?
 
Gobert just posted the 159th best season of any player in NBA history according to win shares at 14.29. I bet he gets close to a top 100 performance next season.

Here is the company he is around:
151. Dwight Howard 14.39 2010-11
152. Dwyane Wade 14.39 2005-06
153. Elgin Baylor* 14.39 1962-63
154. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*14.38 1978-79
155. George Mikan* 14.38 1951-52
156. Walt Bellamy* 14.36 1963-64
157. Hakeem Olajuwon*14.33 1993-94
158. LeBron James 14.30 2004-05
159. Rudy Gobert 14.29 2016-17
160. Kevin Love 14.29 2013-14
161. Bob Pettit* 14.28 1962-63
162. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*14.26 1980-81
163. Tiny Archibald* 14.24 1972-73
164. Horace Grant 14.15 1991-92
165. Moses Malone* 14.09 1978-79
166. John Stockton* 14.08 1987-88
167. Russell Westbrook14.05 2015-16
168. John Stockton* 14.04 1990-91
169. Jerry West* 14.03 1963-64
170. Shaquille O'Neal*14.03 1994-95
171. Anthony Davis 14.03 2014-15
 
sepanol said:
Anyone thinks either Hood or Mitchell could be Betas according to this evaluation? Indeed we need 3 betas and 1 gamma if we dont have an alpha to win a championship.
Freaking GSW has 2 alpha, 1 beta, 1 gamma. Ridiculous.
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Actually, it's fair to say that one only needs two betas and one gamma to compete for a title. Throw in some good luck with injuries and solid bench depth, and you've got a realistic shot. Of course, everything is skewed right now because of what you mention: freaking GSW.
 
Ron Mexico said:
What I dont get about this projection about Gobert is that he was 5.8 last season why would his projection be 3.6 for next season? I would guess it would go up with a pass first PG plus the fact that he got better every month last season. He grew into a star last year. I expect him to be better than last season and at least as good as he was at the end of last season. I think he will be in that Alpha grouping.
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Where did you get the 5.8 stat? I'd love to see how their CPM stat ended up last season.

My guess for your question is that projections would naturally trend toward the center of a range of projected value. So I'd guess that all projections would end up "flatter" than the actual results.

But I'm an English major, so I wouldn't listen to anything I have to say about advanced statistics.
 
Strutter said:
Where did you get the 5.8 stat? I'd love to see how their CPM stat ended up last season.

My guess for your question is that projections would naturally trend toward the center of a range of projected value. So I'd guess that all projections would end up "flatter" than the actual results.

But I'm an English major, so I wouldn't listen to anything I have to say about advanced statistics.
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Actually the number I saw was not the CPM looking at it again. Based on the numbers he is using though I would guess it was around there, but they did not share the numbers and I dont want to compile them myself.

I never actually understand a lot of these. Gobert CARMELO stat was 12.4, which is very very high but it is projected to be 9.5 next year and go down every year after that.
 
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