Actual vs. Pythagorean wins

Discussion in 'Utah Jazz' started by idiot, Jan 7, 2019.

  1. Ellipse

    Ellipse Well-Known Member

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    Short answer: The model needs to be tweaked.

    Also, it seems a bit silly to try replacing the actual record with a hypothetical record. If the algorithm isn't going to be used as a probability estimator of future wins, then it serves little purpose.
     
  2. framer

    framer Well-Known Member

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    Part of the issue is that good defense can only go so far. When you build your team's identity on it, you are going to have inexplicable failures where the other team shoots well despite your playing good D. Good offense usually beats good defense. Generally, however, good defense will destroy mediocre teams which is why our point differential gets so high.

    If you make playing good Defense more dependent upon how the refs feel that day, you will get all kinds of variation in your statistics.
     
  3. idiot

    idiot Well-Known Member

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    Seems that the "running-the-score-up-in-garbage-time" possible explanation doesn't fly this year


     
    checkbookdoc and NAOS like this.
  4. NAOS

    NAOS Well-Known Member

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    I wonder how much that loss in Dallas is throwing off any/all statistics of this type. I know this stat is trying to adjust for that game, but I wonder what it would look like if that single game was subtracted from the sample.
     
  5. idiot

    idiot Well-Known Member

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    Which direction are you thinking it throws things off?

    (I tend to agree that a 50-point loss can throw things off. But I think that at least the original differential this post started with [actual vs. Pythagorean wins] would be even wider without it.)
     
  6. fishonjazz

    fishonjazz Well-Known Member Contributor 2019 Award Winner 2018 Award Winner

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    Jazz are 9-4 in their last 13 games even with a slew of injuries

    Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app
     

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