Game Thread Apr 26, 2021 06:00PM MT: Jazz at Wolves

[Gameface]

You are completely misunderstanding the argument dude.

I could just repeat myself? Would that help?

Yeah that's the dumb **** you said. It's dumb. I'm done talking to you.

 

[MTS]

Yeah that's the dumb **** you said. It's dumb. I'm done talking to you.

lol, k.

Have a good day.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

This is flawed, for multiple reasons.

To name a few:

- It doesn't take into consideration that Mitchell is out (therefore giving us a high probability of winning at Phoenix on Friday when it's actually pretty low).
- Similarly, it doesn't take into account that the Clippers will be without several key players at Phoenix on Wednesday.
- It doesn't take into account that the Suns final two games (both @ Spurs) will likely be against a Spurs team that'll be resting their starters for the upcoming play-in.

These things are always a little stupid imo. Way too much faith in these prediction models.

The prediction models also didn’t know that Minny is now healthy and has much better coaching and Edwards has improved... night to night player availability causes bigger than expected variance.

Win the Phoenix game and I think we are fine. Lose that one and I think we no longer get the #1 seed. The way we look now I think I’d bet large sums of money we lose.

 

[Jingled]

It still blows my mind how many good shots we missed last night.

 

[Sean]

?

HCA only comes into play if a series goes 7 games. The Jazz didn't play any Game 7's in either of their Finals runs. Maybe they would've beaten Seattle in 1996, I don't know. But those are rare occurrences. Like, can you think of any series in recent history where your opinion is - "The inferior team won this series because they got to play Game 7 at home"?

The largest benefit of a high seed isn't HCA, it's that you generally have an easier overall path to the Finals.

?

This is such a fallacy, though, especially the deeper you go into the playoffs.

Your argument is that you can't think of any time the Jazz would have benefited from home court. That's absolutely irrelevant. Why? Because the Jazz has not been positioned to win a series where home court was absolutely a necessity in many years because they've been slotted in the four/five match-up or worse for a majority of their playoff runs. That means one thing: they're either opening against the top seed (or second-seeded team) in the first-round (Kings in 2002 and 2003, when they were the 1st and 2nd seed respectively, Lakers in 2009, when they were the 1st seed and the Spurs in 2012 when they were the 1st seed) or they face the top-seed in the semifinals (which has happened in 2008, 2010, 2017 and 2018).

In fact, I'd wager the Jazz PROBABLY beat the Nuggets had there actually been a legitimate home court last season and not a glorified summer league atmosphere. That right there blows your whole argument out of the water.

But like I said, had the Jazz not had home court in 2007 against the Warriors, that series absolutely plays out different. Why? Because home court is more than just a seventh game. It's about setting the tone of the series. Yes, there are examples of franchises coming down from 0-2 in the playoffs to win, as the Jazz saw last season in their summer league series against the Nuggets. But it's often rare. In fact, 94% of teams that go up 2-0 in a playoff series will win that series.

THAT is where home court comes into play, and it's exactly what aided Utah in 2007. Those two first games against Golden State were tough - with the Jazz winning game one 116-112 (four points) and game two in overtime (by ten, but it was also a game the Jazz trailed by five with 53 seconds left to go). Both those games could have been losses and very well would have been losses at Golden State.

The entire dynamic of a series shifts because of those two first games. The road team has to HOPE to get a split or, as odds show, they're very unlikely going to win the series, even if they're equals.

Sure, again, there are examples, but they are the exception that proves the rule.

Any fan who believes home court is overrated probably cheers for a team that rarely ever gets it and that's how they talk themselves into believing their team has a chance. Which fits perfectly for the Jazz.

If we really, truly believe this year's Jazz team is capable of winning the west, then it's absurd to say home court won't come into play. It's not overrated and I know it's not because if you had your choice between opening a series against the Lakers in Salt Lake or Los Angeles, every fan who hasn't suffered a brain injury would pick the former. And they'd be absolutely right doing so.

 

[fishonjazz]

This is flawed, for multiple reasons.

To name a few:

- It doesn't take into consideration that Mitchell is out (therefore giving us a high probability of winning at Phoenix on Friday when it's actually pretty low).
- Similarly, it doesn't take into account that the Clippers will be without several key players at Phoenix on Wednesday.
- It doesn't take into account that the Suns final two games (both @ Spurs) will likely be against a Spurs team that'll be resting their starters for the upcoming play-in.

How to do you know it doesn't take any of those things into account though?

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app

 

[MTS]

How to do you know it doesn't take any of those things into account though?

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app

It's based on a formula that assigns probabilities to each game based upon each team's SRS (Simple Rating System). The SRS is calculated based exclusively on each team's strength of schedule in games played and average margin of victory.

 

[MTS]

Firstly to Sean - I want to say thank you for actually reading through and understanding my argument and giving it a thoughtful reply. This is very refreshing after Gameface.

?

This is such a fallacy, though, especially the deeper you go into the playoffs.

Especially the deeper you go into the playoffs? Is that actually true? Do home teams win more frequently in later rounds opposed to earlier rounds? I'm not even asking to argue, I'm genuinely curious.

Your argument is that you can't think of any time the Jazz would have benefited from home court. That's absolutely irrelevant.

I mean that was one small portion of my overall argument. I don't see how it's irrelevant either - the Jazz have had plenty of series, close and not close, over the past two decades. I don't think the outcome of any of them changes if you flip HCA. I also don't really think you can assume that the Jazz would've gone down 0-2 against the Warriors in '07 just because the first two home games were close. The '07 Jazz were a better team than the '07 Warriors - it would've been a significantly difficult task for the Warriors to win two games in a row to start the series, even at home. I don't have a crystal ball, but my prediction would have been that the Jazz win at least one of those games in Oakland by a pretty comfortable final margin, similarly to what actually happened in Game 4.

That aside, I also asked if you could name any series in recent history where you think the inferior team won only because they had HCA. That'd be a fun discussion.

In fact, I'd wager the Jazz PROBABLY beat the Nuggets had there actually been a legitimate home court last season and not a glorified summer league atmosphere. That right there blows your whole argument out of the water.

I'm... extremely confused how the claim that the Jazz would have beaten the Nuggets if the Nuggets had HCA is a point in favor of HCA being an enormous advantage. If this were true, wouldn't it actually blow your whole argument out of the water?

If we really, truly believe this year's Jazz team is capable of winning the west, then it's absurd to say home court won't come into play. It's not overrated and I know it's not because if you had your choice between opening a series against the Lakers in Salt Lake or Los Angeles, every fan who hasn't suffered a brain injury would pick the former. And they'd be absolutely right doing so.

The argument isn't that it provides no advantage and isn't preferred. Obviously you take it if you can.

The argument is that it's extremely unlikely to sway the outcome of a series. For instance, if the Clippers and Jazz face each other in Round 2 as the 2/3 seeds, and the better team does not have HCA, I think it'd still be extraordinarily unlikely for the better team to lose the series.

 

[Agent#00]

The biggest disappointement in those two losses was Clarkson. With Donovan out he should have taken some of his role. Had he played even average we would have won those.

Ever since Quin talked to him about passing he isn't himself anymore. Clarksons mind is now messed up. He used to be that guy who attacks you and try to slit your throat, but now he's looking to pass. Look at this game, he had team leading 8 assist

 

[Agent#00]

Are the Lakers trying to avoid us?

Ha. I believe they prefer to meet suns. Lebrons weakness is blender and shooters. It confuses him.

 

[Jazzmix]

Ever since Quin talked to him about passing he isn't himself anymore. Clarksons mind is now messed up. He used to be that guy who attacks you and try to slit your throat, but now he's looking to pass. Look at this game, he had team leading 8 assist

I think you're overthinking it. He's been simply ice cold those last games. Before he had some good games when he both shot well and passed. I am actually glad he is doing it more this season.

 

[fishonjazz]

Ever since Quin talked to him about passing he isn't himself anymore. Clarksons mind is now messed up. He used to be that guy who attacks you and try to slit your throat, but now he's looking to pass. Look at this game, he had team leading 8 assist

He also took the most shots of anyone on the team despite playing the 6th most minutes lol

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