We're currently in the 8th spot, the ceiling of how far we can go with the protections on the pick. In our conference we're 4.5 games behind the Kings and Clippers in the tank race, and 5 games behind the Pelicans. In the Eastern conference we're 1.5 games behind Charlotte, 3 games behind Brooklyn, 4.5 games behind Indiana, and 5.5 games behind Washington. The Mavericks are technically 0 games back from us but they have an additional win and an additional loss. The Blazers are a half game back from us. In the East, the Bucks would be effectively tied with us and the Bulls are one game back.
Assuming we hold our position, there's a 61% chance that we move up or stay at 8, meaning that there would be a 39% chance that we'd lose the pick altogether.
Let me actually just break this down by pre-lottery order and what our odds would be of keeping the pick based on each position...
1 - 4: 100%
5: 99.38%
6: 96.17%
7: 85.79%
8: 60.76%
9: 20.27%
10: 13.88%
11: 9.41%
12: 7.12%
13: 4.79%
14: 2.41%
There's currently some competition where it currently stands in terms of how many teams are right on our heels for bumping us to a lower position. Above helps us visualize what the relative odds are for each ranking and what that translates to in determining whether or not we have a pick. Really ****** situation to be in from being short-sighted, especially since we made deals with two other teams in some fashion premised in-part by us getting pick swaps, which both are this year (which more likely than not will be irrelevant). The unfortunate part would be if Cleveland or Minnesota fall off this year and end up in the lottery, we have to have a pick to be able to swap (assuming they jump in the lottery). Anyway, there had always been a repeated idea that we'd definitely figure something out before we find ourselves in this situation and yet here we are. It should help us appreciate things better in real time about decisions that are short-sighted and not just assuming "we'll totally figure it out and cross that bridge when we get there."
Assuming we hold our position, there's a 61% chance that we move up or stay at 8, meaning that there would be a 39% chance that we'd lose the pick altogether.
Let me actually just break this down by pre-lottery order and what our odds would be of keeping the pick based on each position...
1 - 4: 100%
5: 99.38%
6: 96.17%
7: 85.79%
8: 60.76%
9: 20.27%
10: 13.88%
11: 9.41%
12: 7.12%
13: 4.79%
14: 2.41%
There's currently some competition where it currently stands in terms of how many teams are right on our heels for bumping us to a lower position. Above helps us visualize what the relative odds are for each ranking and what that translates to in determining whether or not we have a pick. Really ****** situation to be in from being short-sighted, especially since we made deals with two other teams in some fashion premised in-part by us getting pick swaps, which both are this year (which more likely than not will be irrelevant). The unfortunate part would be if Cleveland or Minnesota fall off this year and end up in the lottery, we have to have a pick to be able to swap (assuming they jump in the lottery). Anyway, there had always been a repeated idea that we'd definitely figure something out before we find ourselves in this situation and yet here we are. It should help us appreciate things better in real time about decisions that are short-sighted and not just assuming "we'll totally figure it out and cross that bridge when we get there."
