if you assume the bookies know what's up.
thats a common misconception, the bookies do not know whats up in terms of who wins or loses, they start their line with a prediction!
the prediction isnt based on actual strength, but on rpediction hwo people will do the betting!
that at the end of the day, whichever team loses the bookies win
for example lets take 2 teams playing each other and they look even on paper.
so the ods are 1,91 to 1.91 meaning if you bet 1 dollar on team a you get 1,91 back so a profit of 0.91 cents(i knwo their are other ways of describing ods.
so now 10 people bet 1 dollar on that game
5 people for team a 5 for team b.
so no Mather who wins the bookies get 10 dollar from those 10 people and whoever wins they pay out 9.55 so the bookies have a .55 cent per 10 dollars
now lets say the odds start out at 1.91 for team a and b both. then 50 people start betting 1 dollar on team A and 1 person bets 1 dollar on team B so bookies are now in trouble because if team A wins they make a YUGE loss!
but good thing is bookies wont let it get that far after a few people bet on team a while none on team b they adjust the odds, that way the odds are fluid, so the odds just mean, the way the betting public thinks how they can make a profit, so the bookie adjust so he always makes a profit!
so bookies their odds just mean, the best quotient for them to ALWAYS WIN money!
eddit to add. lets jsut say their are 2 evenly matched teams. so the odss could be 1.91 vs 1.91 lets say it is clippers vs utah.
but the population or people in LA are more prone to betting than the people in Utah(for whatever reason maybe a higher percentage of utahns think it is a sin!)
so people form la will be over represented in betting maybe 50 people from la takes that bet but only 5% of utaghns take that bet, so it influences the betting line(ofcourse the rest of country might go at it equally, but the odds shift ever so slightly because of that)
how do i know, well i used to hear stories, from my dad and grandfather who used to run a casino until a brutal socialist regime had a revolution and closed down lots of business including the casino.
