COVID-19 - How worried are you?

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by LogGrad98, Mar 15, 2020.

How worried are you about COVID-19?

  1. 1 - Not at all, everyone is freaking out over nothing at all.

    3 vote(s)
    5.7%
  2. 2 - Not at all, it will not over and not be a big deal in the long run.

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. 3 - Not really, but it could get worse if we don't take precautions

    4 vote(s)
    7.5%
  4. 4 - kind of, and it could get worse if we aren't careful

    6 vote(s)
    11.3%
  5. 5 - yes, it could end up being really bad. We need to do something.

    6 vote(s)
    11.3%
  6. 6 - yes, it's getting worse, we all need to step up

    4 vote(s)
    7.5%
  7. 7 - yes, it's going to cause a lot of damage that will take a long time to fix

    7 vote(s)
    13.2%
  8. 8 - it is a crisis, the government needs to get involved, businesses need to step up

    9 vote(s)
    17.0%
  9. 9 - it is a full crisis. It will be devastating to the world in many ways.

    8 vote(s)
    15.1%
  10. 10 - the most imaginable crisis we have seen in decades. It will cause permanent damage.

    6 vote(s)
    11.3%
  1. Gameface

    Gameface I actually REALLY like Gobert! Contributor 2018 Award Winner

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    On the subject of "panic buying"

    If stores might ultimately close or have very limited operations it's really good idea to have food enough to last a couple weeks BEFORE that happens. If you wake up one morning and the local news says "All Retail Ordered To Close In 24hrs" you missed the ****ing boat. Have fun finding what you need.

    It's not panic buying to see that other countries have effectively shut down and plan ahead so that you're not caught with your pants down (and no TP).

    That's completely different than buying 1000 rolls of toilet paper. But having enough toilet paper to last for the rest of the month or maybe two is a great idea.

    Picking up additional canned goods, dry good and meat to freeze so that you're not going to go hungry if stores shut down for a couple weeks, that's a good idea.

    Of course if everyone is doing the same then yeah, shelves are going to empty. That doesn't mean everyone is panic buying. But if you're sitting on your *** laughing at all the idiots for stocking up (not stockpiling) you're gonna be the one paying off the hoarders when you're desperate for a can of beans.
     
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  2. Handlogten's Heros

    Handlogten's Heros Well-Known Member 2019 Award Winner

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    By all means people should prepare... but this ain't a hurricane or some disaster where they will shut down all food establishments. We stocked up for sure, but we didn't buy every can of beans... like someone did with the children's ibuprofen. If they shut down super markets there will be more death due to rioting and starvation than there would have been due to the virus.
     
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  3. Gameface

    Gameface I actually REALLY like Gobert! Contributor 2018 Award Winner

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    That may have been 100 different people all buying 1 package of children's ibuprofen, just like you did.

    Salt Lake County just shut down all in-establishment dining. Shutting down retail or creating limits on retail is a very real possibility.
     
  4. mellow

    mellow Well-Known Member

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    Yep.

    That will be next. I expect it by Monday or Tuesday next week. It could be sooner.
     
  5. Handlogten's Heros

    Handlogten's Heros Well-Known Member 2019 Award Winner

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    Sure. All the stores were out because one person was going to buy it... just like the TP... it’s fine I figured it out.

    Closing restaurants is one thing... if they close supermarkets there will be mass riots and violence... people will go full zombie apocalypse. It doesn’t take much.
     
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  6. Gameface

    Gameface I actually REALLY like Gobert! Contributor 2018 Award Winner

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    If you buy toilet paper once a month but because of this you buy 2-3 months worth in a go and everyone else does the same then there's not going to be enough TP on the shelves. The stores plan on sales being around the average. If they go up 15% then they are going to start running out of stuff.
     
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  7. infection

    infection Well-Known Member Staff Member 2019 Award Winner 2018 Award Winner

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    The economic impact will be huge, and I'm really worried about that. This will also force us to look at many things and perhaps make decisions that we've never thought about before. I think an adequate appraisal of the situation is called for, because I think the hysteria is going to have some serious unintended consequences. Obviously there's a huge range of possibilities that can happen, so saying 'have an adequate appraisal' is somewhat of a silly notion. But people out there feeling justified in fomenting fear so that people will "take it seriously" is so incredibly short-sighted. I will grant that many people propagating the fear genuinely believe it. With regard to fear, I'm not talking about taking precautionary measures such as closing schools, working from home, limiting contact, not going out, etc. I'm talking about needless conjecture that has no basis. Something like the idea that's been passed around that 'because the federal government waited, millions will die.' There an idea that if you're not out there subscribing to this thought process, that you're not taking this serious enough and do not understand the gravity of the situation.

    I've long believed that there's a certain level of arrogance about the comfort of our current situations. We live in huge outlier of human history. Because we're accustomed to this, we believe this is how things always will be, and we think issues like this are a thing of the past, so we forget how fragile and delicate numerous issues are just because we've lived in times of relative comfort. I was in residency when Ebola started to break out. I wasn't thinking the sky was falling, but I thought it was interesting when people were so invested in dismissing it as a possible threat. I think there was also a lot of subtle cultural elitism / racism involved in this dismissive attitude to the idea of us not being able to have a breakout here as we're watching it happen across West and Central Africa. And keep in mind this is something with a mortality rate up to 90%, and people were saying "yeah, the flu kills a ton. Go get a flu shot." Ebola was luckily contained. At one point the CDC had estimated that over the course of a few months the number of Ebola cases could reach 1.4 million. There's a particular poster here who has rated this current outbreak as a 10. If you go back to the Ebola thread from 2014, this same person's concern about Ebola after the first case in the US was a 0. They thought it was political media hysteria.

    But I digress. The idea that we're somehow immune from an absolute catastrophe happening has been silly. And I think with anything untested that we don't have data on, you have to exhibit some real caution in making declarations of something being safe when it's never been tested. So, to be fair, we don't know exactly what will happen with COVID-19. And yes, the comparison with influenza may not be the best. But I do think it's important for us to assess our underlying assumptions. Yes, we don't have any immunity to corona as we do influenza, so there's concern that it can spread more. The CDC currently estimates that there have been 22,000-55,000 influenza deaths in the US alone from October 1 - March 7. There have currently been 7,000 deaths world-wide from corona. China's rate has slowed drastically, if the numbers are to be believed. Yes, they've done some pretty intense quarantines, but also consider that they had absolutely no lead time on this and Wuhan has a population of 8-9 million, and about 18 million in the metropolitan area. China has had 3,213 deaths, again if the numbers are to be believed, and this is stabilizing.

    On the other hand, yes. We have to make sure that this doesn't spread so far and wide that it collapses our healthcare system. That's a real concern. Most of that concern comes from watching what's happening with Italy, and it's stated that we're about 11 days behind them, but we're only referencing total numbers. It's important to note that Italy has 1/5 the population we do, that we have 3x the amount of critical care beds, and that their population's median age is nearly 10 years higher. We don't know what will happen here, and it's important to look at what's happening elsewhere, but we also need to look at it from more than one simplistic angle, regardless of which side that data falls on.

    Yes, we need to take this seriously. Yes, we need to exhibit cautions as prevention is much easier than cures, even if you overdo it. But no, making claims about millions dying as a result of delayed action not only has no basis, but is not actually helpful. Think beyond this current crisis and think to the next time another infectious disease, or other public health crisis, arises that carries with it an even larger burden of mobidity and mortality. How effective will the short-term strategy of now translate then? Yes, we need to get people to take it seriously. No, beating people over the head with hysterics will not get them to take it seriously, but will do far, far more damage for the public good and trust the next time a crisis comes along.

    tl;dr none of us have any idea what will happen, despite referencing evidence that may lean one way or the other. It's better to be cautious than be sorry, but if you feel people aren't taking something serious enough, simply ratcheting up the fear isn't actually going to change those peoples' behaviors, and in fact may drive them the other way. But you yourself may feel better, even though you have not helped with any change. Try a different approach, because I'd like everyone to be more cautious, too, and I recognize that your behavior "helping" isn't really accomplishing that.

    But I've digressed again from my original point. We're going to have to reevaluate many things we've never looked at. Like, many would argue that if we need to have the world shut down for 6-8 months to save 50k lives, then it's worth it. I'm not going to attempt to put any value on life, but if we're quickly determining that if something like that is necessary and that's what we should do, then we'd also have to ask ourselves the question if we should be shutting down the roads so we don't have 40k automobile fatalities each year. That's, again, not an implication of what should or shouldn't be done, but it's important for us to look at some larger applications and scenarios when we're trying to process what the long-term solution to something like this would be in a vacuum.
     
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  8. Handlogten's Heros

    Handlogten's Heros Well-Known Member 2019 Award Winner

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    I mean sure that might be what happened but we have all heard the stories of the fight that broke out over the lady that had 12 packs of TP and others wanted one... the people going to the store now are mostly panic buyers acting irrationally.

    We ran to the store and replenished our 60-90 day supply we normally keep on hand a week or two ago... so I’m good, but people are definitely panicking and stock piling. This ain’t the zombie apocalypse... grocery stores should close about the same time hospitals do.
     
  9. Handlogten's Heros

    Handlogten's Heros Well-Known Member 2019 Award Winner

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    Well said. Kinda summarizing my non-PhD thoughts... better safe than sorry is great in many situations... but I think it can be taken too far. The thoughts on thinking nothing bad can happen or should happen especially poignant. We live in the bubble wrap helicopter parent world... I’ve often thought about all the bad things that could happen by letting my kids walk to the park or other places... what if they don’t look when crossing the road? What if there are shady characters? What could happen? I can’t stop it all so you just have to be reasonable.

    Let’s be reasonably safe... but not irrational.
     
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  10. fishonjazz

    fishonjazz Well-Known Member Contributor 2019 Award Winner 2018 Award Winner

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    I wasn't scared of anything before I had my kid. I was fearless and wreckless.
    Now I'm scared of everything lol.

    Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app
     
  11. JazzGal

    JazzGal Well-Known Member Contributor

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    Sadly, people who are buying large quantities are hoping to score big on reselling the items. There was a story on the news last night where the cashier's husband had bought all the TP at a convenience store and was selling them across the street for $30 per package. I hope no one was dumb and desperate enough to give that POS any money.
     
  12. Handlogten's Heros

    Handlogten's Heros Well-Known Member 2019 Award Winner

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    Our house got TP'd a couple weeks ago... those punks just basically dumped money on my house... I win!
     
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  13. Joe Bagadonuts

    Joe Bagadonuts Well-Known Member

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    Because you know the owner of the Honky Tonk has to be Republican and that politics is his defining trait? Maybe take a breath for a second and realize that people need a moment to digest what's happening. Just because you are on a permanent MSNBC IV drip doesn't mean that everyone in the country is. I agree with the measures that are being taken but I can live with the fact that not everyone is going to understand or adopt them in the same instant that they hear them. By and large people are figuring out ways to adapt to/survive this new reality. They are far more likely to do the right thing if you help to educate them instead of trying to shame them.
     
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  14. Gameface

    Gameface I actually REALLY like Gobert! Contributor 2018 Award Winner

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    I really can't imagine a very robust secondary market for TP. I think most of the hoarders are just going to end up with a (my puns are always intentional) ****-ton of TP.
     
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  15. Ron Mexico

    Ron Mexico Well-Known Member Contributor

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    Cold/flu is not the same as cold. The cold does not kill more people than this. The flu does, although this could catch up. Those are two different things. So again, your statement is incorrect.

    No one is telling you to panic. That never helps.
     
  16. Ron Mexico

    Ron Mexico Well-Known Member Contributor

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    People in rural China were saying similar things. They said if you can drink in an entire bottle of baijiu at once you enter get it. Baijiu is 58% alcohol. Chinese believe a lot of funny things help with stuff. Our Olympic level team doctor told everyone to drink Ginger tea to prevent getting the virus. He also suggested putting sesame oil up your nose every day.
     
  17. infection

    infection Well-Known Member Staff Member 2019 Award Winner 2018 Award Winner

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    American’s believe a lot of funny things help stuff, too. It’s just so imbedded in our culture that a lot of them become mainstream and don’t seem so silly.
     
  18. Ron Mexico

    Ron Mexico Well-Known Member Contributor

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    Yeah, I've been discovering more and more of them. China definitely has more of them and more believed but we don't lack ours. Part of it for China is that they were a 3rd world country in extreme poverty in the 90s.
     
  19. Handlogten's Heros

    Handlogten's Heros Well-Known Member 2019 Award Winner

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    Hell I know a bunch of morons that used to think a churro could help you win basketball games.
     
  20. infection

    infection Well-Known Member Staff Member 2019 Award Winner 2018 Award Winner

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    There’s been almost no churro this year and it’s been a total disaster. Also realize I put an apostrophe in “American’s.”
     
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