Destruction of a Nation 101

[franklin]

Oh, and BTW, this is probably not much more than Trump trying for leverage on renegotiating NAFTA. Nobody is talking about that angle. Our auto import imbalance is huge from both Canada and Mexico. Why else do you think Trump said he was open to excluding them? (China and increased American steel production are a side benefit).

Also alt, do you think a short term 3 one thousandth increase in the cost of vehicles will really matter?

 

[Siro]

Steel makes up something like a fourth of the car's total cost. Not to forget increased building construction costs and everything else steel is in. Unless the tariffs are defanged by exempting most relevant countries, this will probably be an economic disaster.

Which is okay, since it ensures that xenophobe is not reelected.

 

[JAZZGASM]

Bitch please. You contrdict yourself with #3. Do you know how much raw iron ore we produce compared to Australia? Fortesque alone, a recent startup, already mines 4 times in the Pilbara the amount we do.

We don't have enough supply to meet our demands. Nucor is our largest manufacturer at about 20 mil metric tons and their electric arc furnaces rely on scrap. We produce about 50 and import 20 more.

So if you are going with the concept that importing cheap and exporting value added products then you would support this bill.

You can't bull **** someone who actually knows what they're talking about, bull *****er hack.

You are both right in a sense. Economic interference caused a huge downturn to the production of steel in the U.S. and the 70s and 80s, and outside of putting in some agreements for quotas, (Carter and Reagan IIRC) not much was done. U.S. steel rebounded some, but it is still down something like 300,000 workers compared to the 70s, and the effects completely ruined a few cities. Much of this came from other countries producing steel more efficiently (just like the U.S. helped Toyota, we helped Nippon). So foreign steel, not burdened with outdated equipment and process, were able to undercut us, not to mention foreign subsidies that undercut the world market. It is exactly what China is doing.

Obviously it would be better to have no interference. But we've been dealing with other countries that are very good at manipulating the market.

So yes, the U.S. produces a very small % of total world steel. Part of that is due to interference from other countries. Part of that is our own fault.

So I don't see this as something that will allow us to start exporting steel. It is designed to bring some parity to the steel market without punishing those countries that aren't manipulating the market (the proposal will allow countries exemptions if they can show their steel practices are manipulating the market. There are already exemptions for CA and MX, and there will likely be one for JP and the EU.

Regardless, I do see this as raising prices for consumers.

 

[franklin]

You are both right in a sense. Economic interference caused a huge downturn to the production of steel in the U.S. and the 70s and 80s, and outside of putting in some agreements for quotas, (Carter and Reagan IIRC) not much was done. U.S. steel rebounded some, but it is still down something like 300,000 workers compared to the 70s, and the effects completely ruined a few cities. Much of this came from other countries producing steel more efficiently (just like the U.S. helped Toyota, we helped Nippon). So foreign steel, not burdened with outdated equipment and process, were able to undercut us, not to mention foreign subsidies that undercut the world market. It is exactly what China is doing.

Obviously it would be better to have no interference. But we've been dealing with other countries that are very good at manipulating the market.

So yes, the U.S. produces a very small % of total world steel. Part of that is due to interference from other countries. Part of that is our own fault.

So I don't see this as something that will allow us to start exporting steel. It is designed to bring some parity to the steel market without punishing those countries that aren't manipulating the market (the proposal will allow countries exemptions if they can show their steel practices are manipulating the market. There are already exemptions for CA and MX, and there will likely be one for JP and the EU.

Regardless, I do see this as raising prices for consumers.

The same thing happened with the rise of Japan's auto industry as a competitor, which was heavily subsidized. I'm sure their quick rise in steel production was subsidized as well. Also, one of the main reasons of the US decline that nobody mentions is the slack in demand that post-industrial nations exhibit. Higher income economies use less steel. They also have largely built out their infrastructure. Our industry and the European companies were basically in a boxing match with each other seeing who could outlast the competition in a declining demand environment.

Dumping didn't help. The notion that US should keep taking it on the chin in unfair trade is silly, but it's not something that can't really be discussed on a forum with many never trump members who want any excuse to claim this is the end of the world. The expected immediate increase in auto production is $175/vehicle. Oh my! Who's not going to buy that $50,000 Chevy pickup truck because now it costs $50,175? Or, maybe in a few years it lowers the cost as more steel is made at home and doesn't incur the heavy transportation costs. As Dutch would say, the overreaction to this is a nothing burger.

 

[JAZZGASM]

The same thing happened with the rise of Japan's auto industry as a competitor, which was heavily subsidized. I'm sure their quick rise in steel production was subsidized as well. Also, one of the main reasons of the US decline that nobody mentions is the slack in demand that post-industrial nations exhibit. Higher income economies use less steel. They also have largely built out their infrastructure. Our industry and the European companies were basically in a boxing match with each other seeing who could outlast the competition in a declining demand environment.

Dumping didn't help. The notion that US should keep taking it on the chin in unfair trade is silly, but it's not something that can really be discussed on a forum with many never trump members who want any excuse to claim this is the end of the world. The expected immediate increase in auto production is $175/vehicle. Oh my! Who's not going to buy that $50,000 Chevy pickup truck because now it costs $50,175? Or, maybe in a few years it lowers the cost as more steel is made at home and doesn't incur the heavy transportation costs. As Dutch would say, the overreaction to this is a nothing burger.

I agree there is a lot of reaction. If we really wanted to shake things up, a tariff on electronics or textiles would be the way to go (not that I advocate for that). A steel tariff is more bark than bite.

 

[♪alt13]

Bitch please. You contrdict yourself with #3. Do you know how much raw iron ore we produce compared to Australia? Fortesque alone, a recent startup, already mines 4 times in the Pilbara the amount we do.

We don't have enough supply to meet our demands. Nucor is our largest manufacturer at about 20 mil metric tons and their electric arc furnaces rely on scrap. We produce about 50 and import 20 more.

So if you are going with the concept that importing cheap and exporting value added products then you would support this bill.

You can't bull **** someone who actually knows what they're talking about, bull *****er hack.

You're a dolt

When that iron ore gets imported back into this country in the shape of a Nissan yeah that adds to the trade deficit d******. It now has a lot of added value. That isn't to say that we shouldn't mine iron ore cuz if you got it, cool beans, but all the jobs in manufacturing design etcetera are way f****** more important than a few thousand mining or in this case steelworkers jobs.

If we really wanted to do something we would treat our massive coal reserves the way OPEC treats its oil. A tax or limit on exported coal would be paid by foreigners(china). Bonus probable greenhouse gas reduction

 

[franklin]

You're a dolt

When that iron ore gets imported back into this country in the shape of a Nissan yeah that adds to the trade deficit d******. It now has a lot of added value. That isn't to say that we shouldn't mine iron ore cuz if you got it, cool beans, but all the jobs in manufacturing design etcetera are way f****** more important than a few thousand mining or in this case steelworkers jobs.

If we really wanted to do something we would treat our massive coal reserves the way OPEC treats its oil. A tax or limit on exported coal would be paid by foreigners(china). Bonus probable greenhouse gas reduction

Doubling down on the "I don't know **** about the steel industry" bit? The US is not going to become a steel exporter to Japan. Japan started gobbling up US market share long ago and have enough production capacity. They're also a helluva lot closer to Australia and Japan so their import costs are lower than ours.

One final tidbit for the chicken littles: the US has had steel tariffs over the years. Voluntary restraint agreements and a trigger price mechanism. These didn't destroy the world economy.

 

[Scorpjazz]

Best POTUS in a long time.
In the real world where most people live, he's accomplished a ton in his first year.
In the land of "I still cant handle that he won", I'm sure it has been rough.
That nuclear war with North Korea he was sure to start by not kissing their ***...yeah, not so much..
The economy sure to dive with his election...yeah....best in a long time..
Anyway, just wanted to fan the flames a bit for you all with some reality.
Now back to the unhinged hate-fest.., lol, best year of my life almost watching all the meltdowns...continue

 

[♪alt13]

Doubling down on the "I don't know **** about the steel industry" bit? The US is not going to become a steel exporter to Japan. Japan started gobbling up US market share long ago and have enough production capacity. They're also a helluva lot closer to Australia and Japan so their import costs are lower than ours.

One final tidbit for the chicken littles: the US has had steel tariffs over the years. Voluntary restraint agreements and a trigger price mechanism. These didn't destroy the world economy.

No one thinks we are going to become an exporter of steel, nor did I ever say that. You are the only person who hlseems to think that this will improve our trade deficit(which is an asinine position). We do export iron ore but that's getting out in the weeds.

On your second "point" yes we had steel tariffs and they were rescinded for a good reason, they were bad for the economy.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...hief-of-staff-warns-trump-not-to-do-the-same/

 

[franklin]

No one thinks we are going to become an exporter of steel, nor did I ever say that. You are the only person who hlseems to think that this will improve our trade deficit(which is an asinine position). We do export iron ore but that's getting out in the weeds.

On your second "point" yes we had steel tariffs and they were rescinded for a good reason, they were bad for the economy.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...hief-of-staff-warns-trump-not-to-do-the-same/

I'm not reading that link since I'm pretty sure it mainly regurgitates M. Moore's NBER publucation, which I've already read several times.

You are a free trade advocate. I'm a free and fair trade advocate. Uncontested trade deficits cannot continue indefinitely and situational sanctions have a proper role in economic policy. America has been pretty damn good with them over the years.

 

[fishonjazz]

Best POTUS in a long time.
In the real world where most people live, he's accomplished a ton in his first year.
In the land of "I still cant handle that he won", I'm sure it has been rough.
That nuclear war with North Korea he was sure to start by not kissing their ***...yeah, not so much..
The economy sure to dive with his election...yeah....best in a long time..
Anyway, just wanted to fan the flames a bit for you all with some reality.
Now back to the unhinged hate-fest.., lol, best year of my life almost watching all the meltdowns...continue

Best year of your life because people are unhappy. I feel sorry for you.

 

[Joe Bagadonuts]

Best year of your life because people are unhappy. I feel sorry for you.

He does point out quite a bizarre paradox. The Trump presidency has been one of the strangest experiences of my lifetime. He goes about things in ways that seem so wrong, and he stirs up such constant chaos and anger, yet somehow he continues to be incredibly effective in getting things done.