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Dispelling some myths about this off-season

inf, sounds like we mostly agree here, we're just talking about it differently.

one thing about the S&T plausibility... apparently booz has said his top priority is a 6-yr deal (not surprising since players will be looking for max length knowing that terms of the next CBA will probably go down). if that's truly his top priority, then the only ways he can get what he wants is by staying or working a S&T. that might change the "stay or walk for nothing" dynamic.
 
If I'm KOC I'm calling Mathews on July 1 and making an offer. I know there is some danger there, and its not the way the jazz usually operate. But if the jazz sit and wait for Mathews to get offers (Like they did with CJ and Milsap) mathews could get priced right out of Utah.

Multiple teams have cleared space for the FA shopping spree. Their fans have been holding out hope and are watching anxioulsy-- If a team can't land LeBron, wade, Amare or Bosh then they start throwing money around and a young player with potential is a better sell to angry/disappointed fans than an old has been.

Last year Portland missed on Turkelot then shocked the jazz by offering Mislap a big contract. I wouldn't bother calling Boozer on June 30, @ 10pm mtn. time. I'd call mathews, fes and a MLE. The longer the jazz wait, the more it will cost.
 
maybe it's just me, but i don't think people are going to blow the doors off the hinges to get to matthews at 10:01 MDT on wednesday. he got a lot of pub for his nice season, but i don't think he's going to command ridiculous sums of cash, especially since teams tend to shy away from tying up their money for 7 days on a guy they know will get matched anyway.
 
The only thing the Jazz have to do with Matthews is not bid against themselves. They should tender him and let the market decide. This isn't about what he's "worth." It's about NBA economics. Anthony Morrow had more value than Matthews does right now and he was in the same boat. He signed for the minimum. At the end of the FA period if the Jazz wanted to throw him a bone and lock him in for 2/3 years with an offer, I wouldn't care as long as the maximum salary did not exceed 2 million in any one given year. The idea that Matthews is worth more than that is lunacy to me (relative to NBA finances.)
 
mellow said:
Stop thinking of AK's expiring contract as an assett. The market for expiring contracts has shifted from a sellers market to a buyers market. Now teams are paying to have other teams absorb the expiring.

If the Jazz had to 'pay' OKC a Eric Maynor in order to have OKC absorb a partially insurred 6million dollar contract, what is it going to cost the jazz to unload AK's 17 mill?
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That does not represent a change in the market. It's ateam A taking advantage of the need for team B to save money. Utah was team B last year, but we've been team A in the past (Keon Clark, for example).
 
One Brow said:
That does not represent a change in the market. It's ateam A taking advantage of the need for team B to save money. Utah was team B last year, but we've been team A in the past (Keon Clark, for example).
Click to expand...

Exactly.
If we re-sign Boozer, we become team B, having to dump AK's salary. If we clear off Booz and Korver, and only re-sign Matthews and Fes, we become Team A since we'll be pretty near the tax threshold. We could afford to take back long-term contracts. And we'd be in the driver's seat, just like Houston was with NY. I'm not saying we get the same value; we won't. There aren't the same qualiyt of FA's availabe in 2011. But some teams will want to clear salaries to get under the tax limit. KOC just needs to sit back, have a couple of teams call, and then let leak what they're offering so a bidding war ensues.
 
GlassEater said:
Exactly.
If we re-sign Boozer, we become team B, having to dump AK's salary. If we clear off Booz and Korver, and only re-sign Matthews and Fes, we become Team A since we'll be pretty near the tax threshold. We could afford to take back long-term contracts. And we'd be in the driver's seat, just like Houston was with NY. I'm not saying we get the same value; we won't. There aren't the same qualiyt of FA's availabe in 2011. But some teams will want to clear salaries to get under the tax limit. KOC just needs to sit back, have a couple of teams call, and then let leak what they're offering so a bidding war ensues.
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If the Jazz don't re-sign Boozer, I don't think that they weill still be in a position to be Team A unless Greg Miller is openly intending to leap into luxury tax territory. I think that he'll do it reluctantly, for example to keep Boozer, but not if he can avoid it.

I think that some people are overestimating the ease with which Utah can unload AK. These are different times, and few teams are under the cap. Also, Utah is probably reluctant to unload AK because with Millsap on the team, AK is arguably as valuable as Boozer is, especially if Kiri can play some 3 and some 4 (and is healthy). Given the difficulty to sign impact FAs, and given that there is a financial ceiling at some point above the cap, I am perfectly content with Utah going into the season with Millsap, AK, and Koufos/Okur manning minutes at the 4, Fes/Koufos/Okur hitting the 5, and WM, CJ, GH, and AK sharing minutes at the 2/3. Maybe they sign another journeyman big for good measure, but it's doubtful that they can find anyone on the market worth any meaningful impact. (They could use Cousins.)

I continue to believe that Boozer's scoring and rebounding can be made up; Millsap went a long way to replacing it last year, with better defense filling in the gap. The trend has been consistent: Boozer has been a net liability on the court for the past couple of years (-2.2 on-court/off-court point differential in 2009-2010; -5.9 in 2008-2009, albeit with injuries). Millsap, even with increased starter/regular rotation minutes, has not.
https://www.82games.com/0910/0910UTA.HTM
https://www.82games.com/0809/0809UTA.HTM
 
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I'd also like to go on record stating that the most-likely destination for Korver, if not re-signed, will be San Antonio. I believe that they would have seen, contrary to popular belief, that before Matthews came, Korver was our best defensive wing.
 
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