Following potential 2014 draftees
- Thread starter Dr. Jones
- Start date
What I wanted to say with all of this is there is kind of a high probability each year that multiple and sometimes even the majority of top10 and top20 talents are dropping very low. Some lose their label as a future star when they enter college and get exposed. Others won't make the transition to the NBA and out of the few that made it, there's always a couple that lose their rotation spots after the first few years. Others are late bloomer or somehow got overlooked in high school. The predictions are inaccurate and we probably will have kids from this class, whose stock will be in free fall at some point next year and others that enter the discussion to be legit players. I'm excited for the college season to start and plan to watch more regular season games especially on weekends as tipoff times are more Euro friendly. Maybe I'll be even in a position in a year to perform a "Cyber Enes Enlargement" and brag about a certain player: "I called it"
Here's what you may be missing, BTP. Those services are not predicting these players into the NBA. They aren't even projecting how they'll do in college, necessarily.. they're mostly ranking how these players stack up as High Schoolers.
Every year there are tons of kids projected high into college that people don't believe willl make good pros... after following all of these thin gs as closely as I have, for as long as I have, and understand all the context and nuances.. you make judgement calls based on many factors.. not just a given services rankings.
I also think you cherry picked a bit. Needless to say we could make a looong list of those they got right and I doubt there's a single person that expects them to get it right everytime.
Every year there are tons of kids projected high into college that people don't believe willl make good pros... after following all of these thin gs as closely as I have, for as long as I have, and understand all the context and nuances.. you make judgement calls based on many factors.. not just a given services rankings.
I also think you cherry picked a bit. Needless to say we could make a looong list of those they got right and I doubt there's a single person that expects them to get it right everytime.
Hantlers
Well-Known Member
That's why most of us that follow high school recruiting don't go based off of ratings, but rather off of tape.
For example, there will be guys that get ranked higher than they should because of who they sign with. Happens to big programs quite often (especially Duke). Watch the tape, that will tell you all you need to know.
Now if you watch the tape of Wiggins, Parker, and Randle and still think they won't do anything in the NBA...then I guess I don't know what to tell you other than that you're missing something. Also, keep in mind that these rankings aren't necessarily with the NBA in mind. They're high school rankings, pretty irrelevant to the NBA really.
For example, there will be guys that get ranked higher than they should because of who they sign with. Happens to big programs quite often (especially Duke). Watch the tape, that will tell you all you need to know.
Now if you watch the tape of Wiggins, Parker, and Randle and still think they won't do anything in the NBA...then I guess I don't know what to tell you other than that you're missing something. Also, keep in mind that these rankings aren't necessarily with the NBA in mind. They're high school rankings, pretty irrelevant to the NBA really.
Stifle Tower
Punch Bowl Re-Filler
^^^Agree with that, BTP. There are always players who drop and players who rise in any sport. Trying to project the development curve of someone who is 17 is an inexact science. These kids are still growing physically and mentally. Desire plays a big part, as do the people they have around them. But the one thing about the 2014 class is that coming in, there are more players projected to be superstars or all-stars than at any other time in recent history. So if the early mocks change a bit, it probably won't be all that drastic. Up and down the lottery, solid starters will be available, with the top-5 likely to be stellar.
Thanks. I hate you a teenie bit less.
Oh thx, I didn't know that these rankings were solely on highschool performance, and not containing potential, work ethic, character and continuity to project the success on the next level as these websites are always quoted when you read articles about college recruitment. This makes most of my argument invalid 
I just wanted to emphasize what I meant with the lack of reliability when PKM called BS on that.
Of course the eye test and contact on a personal level are way more accurate measures to predict. And I don't claim I know much about the incoming class yet as the availability of highschool basketball is close to 0 over here, and college basketball is also rare. So all I know is a couple of highlight tapes of intriguing kids in grown men bodies, who dunk on 5'5" midgets or complete fastbreaks. But I plan on watching selected games next year and analyze them maybe with video excerpts to get a solid unique opinion on them.
I don't even doubt that all of these top prospects will pan out being spectacular in the NBA, but I wouldn't be surprised if college scouts got fooled about the real demeanor and love of the game by a couple of these young men as it happened often before. And that's the statistician in me talking. And statistics is nearly always right.
Go hard or go home! On TV beginning next fall.
I just wanted to emphasize what I meant with the lack of reliability when PKM called BS on that.
Of course the eye test and contact on a personal level are way more accurate measures to predict. And I don't claim I know much about the incoming class yet as the availability of highschool basketball is close to 0 over here, and college basketball is also rare. So all I know is a couple of highlight tapes of intriguing kids in grown men bodies, who dunk on 5'5" midgets or complete fastbreaks. But I plan on watching selected games next year and analyze them maybe with video excerpts to get a solid unique opinion on them.
I don't even doubt that all of these top prospects will pan out being spectacular in the NBA, but I wouldn't be surprised if college scouts got fooled about the real demeanor and love of the game by a couple of these young men as it happened often before. And that's the statistician in me talking. And statistics is nearly always right.
Go hard or go home! On TV beginning next fall.
Park Bites
Well-Known Member
to many letters and white spaces. made my brain hurt. some one paraphrase what btp said.
orangello
Well-Known Member
Thanks for asking to keep it simple. I'm not supposed to work so hard on a holiday.
Don't pay attention to it unless you want to. I misunderstood the concept of Rivals, Scout and ESPN. I criticized their quality retrospective and PKM called me out on it which made me write this long post to underline my point just to find out after that it's just a review of highschool performance and not preview on future performance.
Btw: I watched some footage about Dante Exum. He seems legit to me. Just not sure if he's coming 2014 or 2015. He himself probably isn't either. If he keeps improving, he has a chance to become scary. Definately a guy I'd ask to make a play on an inbound with 10 sec to go! And no, I don't know his free throw percentage in case it's bad.
You did a nice job, BTP.. I didn't call you out as much as simply help you understand the context of things.
I agree re: Exum. He's going to be a special player. I'm getting some nice intel because Calipari is speaking with him. You are correct that he is undecided on his future plans/timing. Cal is trying to talk him into coming to UK.. but it seems he's going to go straight pro once he decides... which no one could blame him.