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Following Potential 2025 Draftees

"Ace Bailey is 6'10" is such a weird hill to die on. I mean, just watch the kid. He's not even close. He's NBA small forward size.

But hey... forget what I think. Sports Illustrated has an opinion too.

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Until/unless it’s draft combine official with corresponding specificity (and reflective of full skeletal development which usually ends before year 19), I take all measurements with a rock of salt.

To be more specific: is the figure rounded (whereby half an inch becomes a full inch in declared size)? Is it without shoes (and how does this factor into our historic understanding of prior players based on shoes or without, and who did their measurements?)? Is it recorded during the morning or night (this can account for half an inch and different prospects measured at different times using - likely - different methods creates ambiguity), and, finally, are they almost-certainly skeletally developed at ages below 18 (almost certainly not).

Moreso than most prospects we have discussed since enactment of the NBA’s one-and-done policy, Ace’s measurements pre-college/G-League/etc can be reasonably suspected to be a work-in-progress. Since he is one of the youngest players in college basketball - having barely turned 18 when the season began - it seems absurd to me to be guffawing at the thought that 6’ 8” is sub-optimal in any universe or context.
 
I have also been doing research into Rocco Zacharsky and have liked him more and more. He comes from a swimming background with both of his parents either winning a medal or being in the Olympics. He was the top swimmer in his age group before playing basketball full-time. They also say that he has the potential to grow some more. He is a project at this point but flashes potential.

He has great hands, a high motor and runs the floor well. He should be effective. There's also some shooting touch to work with.
 
Some really strong NBA defenders are in the lower half of the wingspan percentiles. So I think I'd not use wingspan as a leading indicator for defensive potential, but just one of others.
Sure. It is, however, a critical measurement for players deemed undersized in the height dimension for their position (which VJ is). Weight/strength is probably even more important. Examples of players that were too short but excelled (having great length and strength) are Millsap, Draymond, Donovan, and Marcus Smart.

I can’t speak to the latter two measures of size regarding VJ yet.
 
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Jimmy Butler has a neutral or even slightly negative wingspan.

Hasn't bothered him at all on either side of the ball because prime Jimmy was crazy athletic.
Butler also has elite IQ and effort (when that’s there). Not sure he was ever crazy athletic. He was also upper-end height for a SF, so his wingspan in and of itself wasn’t a terrible obstacle.
 
I just saw a statistic for Nolan Traore he has an almost 45% assist rate. The only person in the NBA with significant time that he compares to is Trae Young. That is insane for an 18-year-old kid playing with grown-ups. I am hoping for Traore with the Minny pick but I do not think he will fall that far.
Or it means he's a ball dominant player who cant score and has to pass the ball...

45% assist rate doesnt really impress me when you have 33/28 shooting splits.

Just kind of gives more credence to him being another Killian Hayes.
 
i am coming around on Ace. my problems were he never passed and all of his shots seemed very difficult. a guy with a hand in his face. but it seems like his job is to score not pass and if he can make contested shots routinely then that is who he is i.e. a difficult shot maker. it also seems to me that he has worked himself into incredible shape. for me it flagg, bailey and everyone else.
 
Or it means he's a ball dominant player who cant score and has to pass the ball...

45% assist rate doesnt really impress me when you have 33/28 shooting splits.

Just kind of gives more credence to him being another Killian Hayes.
but looking at January things are really looking up for him. Over 6 games during competitions, he is 46/35/75
 
"Ace Bailey is 6'10" is such a weird hill to die on. I mean, just watch the kid. He's not even close. He's NBA small forward size.

But hey... forget what I think. Sports Illustrated has an opinion too.

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whether he's 6'10 or 6'8" - more likely he's 6'9" - he has elite size for a SG. but that's not how i concluded you are either stupid or have never seen him play, as none of us know how tall he is until the combine. saying he has zero bounce is just bonkers. hard to believe anybody could be that dumb. and the comment about his defense "can't guard" was almost as ignorant.
 
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Some examples of (at least potential or past) good/excellent defenders with average-to-below average wingspans (median measure for wingspan - height in NBA is 4.5": https://craftednba.com/player-traits/length):

Alex Sarr 4.5
Dyson Daniels 4.5
Josh Hart 4.5
Nick Claxton 4.5
Ivica Zubac 4.5
Andre Jackson 4.25
Jaylin Williams 4.25
Derrick White 4.25
Taylor Hendricks 4.25
Davion Mitchell 4.25
Aaron Gordon 4.25
Ronald Holland 4.25
Gary Harris 4.25
Patrick Williams 4
Grant Williams 4
Dante Exum 4
Jevon Carter 4
Walker Kessler 4
Giannis 4
Jrue Holiday 3.75
Lebron 3.75
Lonzo Ball 3.75
Quentin Grimes 3.75
Isaac Okoro 3.5
Jayson Tatum 3.5
Stephon Castle 3.5
Ben Simmons 3.5
Paul George 3.5
Klay Thompson 3.25
Jeremy Sochan 3.25
Yves Missi 3.25
Terance Mann 3
Chris Paul 3
Isaiah Hartenstein 2.75
Jabari Smith 2.5
Franz Wagner 2.5
Jonathan Isaac 2.5
Kyle Lowry 2.25
Alex Caruso 2
Jalen Suggs 2
Jose Alvarado 2
Jaden McDaniels 2
Anthony Black 1.75
Jimmy Butler 1.5
TJ McConnell 1.5
Kenrich Williams 1.25
Dillon Brooks 1
Brandon Clarke 1
Christian Braun 1
Jaylen Wells 0.75
 
The Ace Bailey nitpicking makes me chuckle. He's not Kevin Durant, but he's pretty damn good. I'd argue a notch more efficient than Brandon Miller was.

Kid seems to have an awesome attitude and plays really hard. I see no reason to suspect he cannot / will not learn how to better use his tools to create space at the next level. It's not an automatic transition for anyone.
 
whether he's 6'10 or 6'8" - more likely he's 6'9" - he has elite size for a SG. but that's not how i concluded you are either stupid or have never seen him play, as none of us know how tall he is until the combine. saying he has zero bounce is just bonkers. hard to believe anybody could be that dumb. and the comment about his defense "can't guard" was almost as ignorant.
I think he is a sf and he has ideal size for that position.
 
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