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Following Potential 2025 Draftees

This doesn't deserve it's own thread, but doesn't really fit with any of the threads, so maybe it's as good a place as any to put it:

I've mentioned in another thread that there seems to be movement toward convergence in the value of draft picks, especially compared to a generation ago. In other words, it's getting harder to predict where the top players are going to come from in the draft. (This is not to say that drafting later has the same odds for getting a strong player as drafting earlier; the odds are still best to draft early, of course. It's just that the difference between the kind of players you get drafting later compared to drafting earlier is narrowing, especially in recent years). The following graphs, which are based on small research projects I've done, provide evidence for this idea, I think.

The first shows what draft picks the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd All-NBA teams come from, on average. You'll see that there's a great narrowing in the last 10 years especially, with 1st-teamers coming from later and later in the draft. This year's 1st team could easily be as high as a 16.6 average.

The second chart shows the relative value of four first round picks, selected to best illustrate the trend (based on a blend of career win shares and VORP scores). Top picks have generally lost value over time, mid-round picks have kept their value somewhat, lower-round picks have increased their value. (In both graphs, lots of data smoothing has been employed to help highlight what seem to be real trends.)

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I'm trending towards Jace as a top 10 pick, but the end of the Wisconsin game yesterday really highlighted some of his concerns. MSU was down a couple points and desperately needed a basket and Jace couldn't seperate in order to get a shot off. At times he couldn't even separate enough to get the ball.

He looks small on an NCAA floor. He's going to look smaller in the NBA. He's skilled though. Looks a bit like Mike Conley.
 
This doesn't deserve it's own thread, but doesn't really fit with any of the threads, so maybe it's as good a place as any to put it:

I've mentioned in another thread that there seems to be movement toward convergence in the value of draft picks, especially compared to a generation ago. In other words, it's getting harder to predict where the top players are going to come from in the draft. (This is not to say that drafting later has the same odds for getting a strong player as drafting earlier; the odds are still best to draft early, of course. It's just that the difference between the kind of players you get drafting later compared to drafting earlier is narrowing, especially in recent years). The following graphs, which are based on small research projects I've done, provide evidence for this idea, I think.

The first shows what draft picks the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd All-NBA teams come from, on average. You'll see that there's a great narrowing in the last 10 years especially, with 1st-teamers coming from later and later in the draft. This year's 1st team could easily be as high as a 16.6 average.

The second chart shows the relative value of four first round picks, selected to best illustrate the trend (based on a blend of career win shares and VORP scores). Top picks have generally lost value over time, mid-round picks have kept their value somewhat, lower-round picks have increased their value. (In both graphs, lots of data smoothing has been employed to help highlight what seem to be real trends.)

So much of a player's success depends upon how hard they work once they're in the league. The high draft picks generally have the most potential, but it's almost impossible to predict whether they'll put in the work to be great.
 
He looks small on an NCAA floor. He's going to look smaller in the NBA. He's skilled though. Looks a bit like Mike Conley.

I'm bad with player comps because they are all Jazz related, but he reminds me more of Donovan, just without the explosiveness.

The best Conley comp in this draft is Fland in my opinion.
 
I'm trending towards Jace as a top 10 pick, but the end of the Wisconsin game yesterday really highlighted some of his concerns. MSU was down a couple points and desperately needed a basket and Jace couldn't seperate in order to get a shot off. At times he couldn't even separate enough to get the ball.
One thing I have noticed about Jace that concerns me is he has no right hand.
 
So much of a player's success depends upon how hard they work once they're in the league. The high draft picks generally have the most potential, but it's almost impossible to predict whether they'll put in the work to be great.
This is why bringing players in for a work out. Wasn't this also the reason gg Jackson dropped? Didn't he have some workout issues?
 
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