Don't quite get where your going with the 2nd statement. If your saying that we need to accurately judge which players are going 3rd and 4th, that is much more difficult than presumed.
Philly at 3 - All 3 of Ace/VJ/Tre are bad fits for them if they are trying to win now, with VJ being the best of the 3 because he can do things other than score. They could easily decide to pick Kon because he can fit into a role as he has proven at Duke. If they don't care about winning, sure they can get a project in Ace or overload on guard scoring with Tre. But Morey has 1 year left to not get fired. Would you bet your job on year 1 Ace Bailey? Or overload the guard rotation with a 4th guard? I have no idea what I would do if I was in that position. Probably pick Noa, Kon, VJ or someone else more ready to contribute immediately to winning (if trading is off the table).
Charlotte at 4 - The prevailing sentiment is that they like VJ, Ace and Tre would make them overly reliant on jumpers as their top 3 shot takers would be Lamelo, Brandon Miller, and Ace/Tre, it would not be good offense. They could do something out of left field like Maluach.
It could be a situation where Kon can go 3 or 4, just like Reed Sheppard did last year. The draft can do crazy things.
Now its true I can't see Philly or Charlotte picking Fears, Kas, or Queen. But that has more to do with their own roster constructions than some innate talent gap. For the Jazz, we should consider fully on ball guards like Fears and Kasparas. Or even a big man hub like Queen.
I say all this to highlight the fact that 3 and 4 are not easy to figure out. 2 or possibly all 3 of the consensus guys might be available at the Jazz pick. And I don't know if that's a good thing.
