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Gamethread: Jazz v Lakers. 7pm MST.

Hantlers said:
Not really. I think Exum is doing fine for the situation that he's in. Clearly he isn't that good yet, but I still think he will be. SJF is writing him off right now, saying that he won't be any good. So no, we don't agree.
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I never saw sjf predicting exum future.

I saw him saying exum sucks right now/so far (pretty damn true) and that historically other players that have sucked this bad didn't turn into good players.

I never saw him say that exum can't/will never improve
 
fishonjazz said:
I never saw sjf predicting exum future.

I saw him saying exum sucks right now/so far (pretty damn true) and that historically other players that have sucked this bad didn't turn into good players.

I never saw him say that exum can't/will never improve
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Historically has any player been in his same circumstance before entering the BAN?
 
Exum is doing what the coaching staff asks of him. He plays good defense which is why he gets as much court time as he does. He gets the team into their offense and even though he has to think about it and it slows him down he makes the right passes within the offense. Snyder holds him responsible for everything he does on the court because he expects him to be great. When Exum messes up a couple times he gets the hook and the staff talks to him then puts him back in. This will make him over think but ultimately I think it will help his long term development. Exum was nervous to shoot open threes because he didnt feel confident making them. The coaching staff showed how it was hurting the team for him to pass up open shots so now he almost always takes them. I think he will be a good spot up 3 point shooter, he is hitting them at an okay clip for a rookie lately. He is not asked to take his guy 1 on 1. He does not run many pick and roll plays. He is just facilitating and letting Hayward do a lot of the work, which is what he is supposed to do. He was getting to the hoop and not trying to score a lot even when open. The coaching staff has been pushing him to shoot more when he gets in that position and he has been. When the coaching staff has him become a bigger part of the offense next year this will be where he improves the most.

Coaching staff want him to not make mistakes and make the correct decisions on the court. They hold him very responsible for this because they want him to become great and be the primary facilitator in the future and that means making the right decisions every time down the court. I think he will make a jump just like Dennis Schroder did this season although in different ways because he is more of a facilitator.

Dennis played less minutes but had a lower PER his rookie year than Exum. He scored similar amount of points and shoot a similar poor percentages. This year Shroder is playing more freely and putting up decent numbers on a very good team, and when he was asked to start since a very good pg is in front of him played pretty good.
 
Nate505 said:
Historically has any player been in his same circumstance before entering the BAN?
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Probably not.
Also, historically no rookie has ever been as bad as exum either..... so I guess this is unprecedented.

If course you could always say that no player has ever entered the nba from "whatever college" after one year, as a 6 foot 7 and a half small forward with a flattop hair cut or whatever scenario you choose.

The fact is that exum was eligible to be drafted and was thought to be good enough to play in the nba by the folks doing the drafting and so he is just like every other player ever drafted in that regard.
 
fishonjazz said:
Probably not.
Also, historically no rookie has ever been as bad as exum either..... so I guess this is unprecedented.

If course you could always say that no player has ever entered the nba from "whatever college" after one year, as a 6 foot 7 and a half small forward with a flattop hair cut or whatever scenario you choose.

The fact is that exum was eligible to be drafted and was thought to be good enough to play in the nba by the folks doing the drafting and so he is just like every other player ever drafted in that regard.
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Other players have had as bad or worse rookie years they just have not played as many minutes as Exum and had less offensive production. Schroder had similar poor production on offense last year, he just played less minutes since they were trying to win last year and had a good pg.
 
It's not that Exum is having the worst rookie year ever. That's a complete misrepresentation. He's having the worst year of somebody who plays as many minutes as he does, because usually teams don't have to play players like Exum. We suck, so we do.
 
fishonjazz said:
Probably not.
Also, historically no rookie has ever been as bad as exum either..... so I guess this is unprecedented.

If course you could always say that no player has ever entered the nba from "whatever college" after one year, as a 6 foot 7 and a half small forward with a flattop hair cut or whatever scenario you choose.

The fact is that exum was eligible to be drafted and was thought to be good enough to play in the nba by the folks doing the drafting and so he is just like every other player ever drafted in that regard.
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Fish...that's a dumb statement. If you can't see how Exum's scenario is different than pretty much everybody else in the draft, then this isn't even worth discussing.
 
Broncster said:
Other players have had as bad or worse rookie years they just have not played as many minutes as Exum and had less offensive production. Schroder had similar poor production on offense last year, he just played less minutes since they were trying to win last year and had a good pg.
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A few posts back someone posted that exum per is the worst in history.

I understand that per doesn't prove everything and no amount of stats could ever "prove" anything because everything is subjective.
So take it for what's it's worth.

You could show me all kinds of stats showing me that cj miles is an inefficient chucker and not very good.
I could still say that he would actually be better than Michael Jordan if cj would have had the college experience that jordan did and played with pippen, kerr, rodman, and tony kukoc and been coached by Jackson.

Obviously that sounds dumb and I don't think it's true, but you couldn't prove it to be wrong simply by using stats because it's impossible to go back in time and put cj into the same situations as jordan
Just like it's impossible to put exum into all the same situations as every other nba rookie ever.

The fact is that he was eligible to be drafted, got drafted to the team and situation that he got drafted to, and by alot of statistical indicators he appears to be possibly having the worst rookie year ever
 
Hantlers said:
Fish...that's a dumb statement. If you can't see how Exum's scenario is different than pretty much everybody else in the draft, then this isn't even worth discussing.
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It is different.
But so what? He got drafted. We can never know that if he played high school basketball in Georgia that he would be rookie of the year or if he would even ever play in the nba.

He was eligible, he got drafted, he stinks right now.
All the ifs ands and buts in the world can't change that.

I do like his defense though
 
Hantlers said:
Fish...that's a dumb statement. If you can't see how Exum's scenario is different than pretty much everybody else in the draft, then this isn't even worth discussing.
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Kanter came into the league about the same age as exum, had only been playing basketball since he was 15, never played college ball and even had to sit out of basketball for a year.

Are thier situations similar at least?
 
fishonjazz said:
It is different.
But so what? He got drafted. We can never know that if he played high school basketball in Georgia that he would be rookie of the year or if he would even ever play in the nba.

He was eligible, he got drafted, he stinks right now.
All the ifs ands and buts in the world can't change that.

I do like his defense though
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I don't even understand what you're talking about right now.

We're talking about why he isn't playing relative to his drafted position, thus, the differences are important.
 
fishonjazz said:
Kanter came into the league about the same age as exum, had only been playing basketball since he was 15, never played college ball and even had to sit out of basketball for a year.

Are thier situations similar at least?
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Kanter played against much better competition for a much longer time compared to Exum. Fairly similar, but not really.
 
fishonjazz said:
A few posts back someone posted that exum per is the worst in history.

I understand that per doesn't prove everything and no amount of stats could ever "prove" anything because everything is subjective.
So take it for what's it's worth.
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Exums per is not the lowest ever for a rookie. It might be (I dont really care to look it up since I dont really care) for a rookie playing 20 minutes or more but it is not the worse for a rookie. I just posted that Dennis Schroder had a lower PER his rookie year.
 
Hantlers said:
I don't even understand what you're talking about right now.

We're talking about why he isn't playing relative to his drafted position, thus, the differences are important.
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Well that is simple
He isn't playing relative to his drafted position because he isn't good.

All the excuses of edgy he isn't good don't really matter

We could make different excuses for every bad player in the nba as to why they are bad

Exums excuse is that he played high school bball in Australia. Doesn't change the fact that he is playing basketball poorly
 
fishonjazz said:
I didn't have high expectations for exum this year.

I also didn't expect our #5 pick that we tanked for to be the worst rookie in the history of the nba.

I would be fine with his play if he was picked at the very end of the 2nd round though
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He was drafted on what he could be, not on what he is right now. Also... basketball is played on both ends of the floor, so he's not the worst rookie in the history of the NBA, he's not even the worst rookie this year. PER is a stat that puts a lot of emphasis on offensive performance and struggles to adequately evaluate defensive performance.

Here's some advanced stats of the rookies this year: click here

Dante is 42 out of 74 rookies this season in win shares. Zach Lavine is dead last.
In BPM he's 36 out of 74. In VORP he's towards the end.

In RPM(click here), he's in the middle of the pack at 51st out of 104 all SGs in the league(I don't know why he's listed as a SG). If you list him as a PG he'd still be 52nd out of 92 PGs in the league.
In WAR, he's 46th out of 104 SGs, or 52and out of 92 PGs.

What to me is the most interesting stat is that he's the only player in our regular rotation(edit: actually along with Millsap) who's on the plus side(on +/-) when on the court:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/UTA/2015/on-off/

Even Hayward is on the negative. He also has a +6.5 on/off balance(second only to Hayward). This might be explained by Quin putting him in situations to succeed and not letting him stay in the game too long when things get ugly, it also might have something to do with matching him with Hayward and Gobert a lot, but still the sample is large enough to take it seriously(about 41% of Dante's minutes are without Hayward and about 40% of his minutes are without Gobert). At the very least what you can say is he's not hurting the team overall. What he lacks in offense he seems to make up in defense.

With all that said, his offensive performance worries me a lot. I really hope he makes a big jump next year.
 
fishonjazz said:
Well that is simple
He isn't playing relative to his drafted position because he isn't good.

All the excuses of edgy he isn't good don't really matter

We could make different excuses for every bad player in the nba as to why they are bad

Exums excuse is that he played high school bball in Australia. Doesn't change the fact that he is playing basketball poorly
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I'm not sure if you're being dense on purpose, or if it's just natural. The excuses DO matter, because they all point to the fact that he needs time. So basically, quit being impatient bitches and just deal with it.
 
People get waaaayyyyy to into their stats on this board. I guess thats what you do when you are an internet sports fan, look for stats to help your argument. Or read some random article that quotes some stat and go overboard about what it says.
 
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