Man, I don't think it's a good year to have the #1. With Favre most likely out, it's gonna be tough sledding for AP (although he'll still put up all-star numbers), and it's a great point about Johnson and his carries from last season. Anytime a RB see's the amount of carries that Johnson did in '09, they almost always regress the following season.
I'd rather have the #3 pick so I didn't have the dilemma of dealing with AP/Johnson and could just select Ray Rice. In reality, he may still be your best bet overall at #1. He's going to get the bulk of carries in Baltimore and Joe Flacco throws to the check down reciever quite often. Not only that Cam Cameron runs that offense and he loves screens and quick hitters to the RB. Rice could see the endzone a ton this season.
I'm in a keeper league where we get to keep 2 players. My keepers are Rice and Micheal Turner. I'm pretty stoked and if my draft goes well I expect nothing less than a championship!
I don't think you can go wrong with either guy. I'd go CJ because I think his style isn't as injury-prone as AP's. One issue is that CJ got a ton of carries last year because Titans didn't really have another option (Lendale White). Javon Ringer will help CJ get some rest but he is no threat. So that could actually play in CJ's favor keeping him fresh.
And with Favre leaning toward retirement AP could see a lot of guys in the box. Meanwhile, Vince Young is actually starting to look somewhat like he belongs in the NFL.
I totally agree. Rice is the best overall guy imo. Let me put that another way, the safest. Of the three, he has the best o-line, has a defense who will help keep him on the field (though their secondary is going to be shaky this year), and defenses can't focus on him as much as say AP and CJ since their QB's are shaky ones in Jackson and Young. I wanted the 3rd pick but am not too upset with this. At 24 and 25, I should be able to get two very high quality players and if things fall right, at 48 and 49, I could get someone like Ryan Matthews or Tony Romo or Michael Crabtree, guys who should put up stats worthy more of a late 3rd.
Chris Johnson is bound to get injured...calling it now, things like this are basically predictable if you look at all the 2000 yard rushers and the next year.
Adrian Peterson for sure
I'm a Titans fan (don't laugh, I go back to the Earl Campbell Oilers), yet I would still go with AP. It just feels like an injury year for CJ.