Jackpotting Around Podcast: Episode 7 - Who Is The Mystery Man?

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I'm not Team Convey, but removing all emotion from it (I'm a draft guy, so obviously I like the enjoyment factor out of having a lottery pick vs not having one), conveying is probably the best move.

The rough thing is just now that conveying is like probably the 11th pick, which would suck, but still I'm not entirely certain that it isnt a better outcome than having the 10th pick.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

And of course no one really knows draft quality until the players play, declare, and workout, but this year's draft does blow in terms of high quality talent.

Next year might not be as good as advertised, or maybe only the top 2-3 guys are actually legit, but you get to have 3 guaranteed picks in a draft everyone at least perceives to be strong AF. It would significantly boost Utah's trade asset profile at the very least.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I'm not Team Convey, but removing all emotion from it (I'm a draft guy, so obviously I like the enjoyment factor out of having a lottery pick vs not having one), conveying is probably the best move.

The rough thing is just now that conveying is like probably the 11th pick, which would suck, but still I'm not entirely certain that it isnt a better outcome than having the 10th pick.

If we kept the pick this year we have a #9/10 pick or a top 4 pick. If we keep the pick this year what is the most likely outcome for next year and where this pick would land?

I think we likely make some win-now moves this offseason and the pick conveys next year. Somewhere in the 12-18 range depending on how we do in the play-in. I'm just not sure that's a terrible outcome. They could also pull the plug for the 3rd consecutive season or maybe go full tank.

But say the injury bug strikes... and we land bottom 10 no matter what we did... would you rather have a top 10 prospect you are developing during the season? You are now hopefully stacking multiple years of adding good young contributors and can still hit the "upside" of a good draft.

The pick swap hitting in a big way is the only potentially catastrophic result of not conveying. The chances of that are really low imo.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The Jazz management team already voted. If they were strongly Team Convey I think you definitely hold on to Simone. You aren't trying to force the young guys into the rotation. There is some value to them in retaining and kicking the can down the road. If they pick does convey I don't think they will cry but I think the preference is to have the pick.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The Jazz management team already voted. If they were strongly Team Convey I think you definitely hold on to Simone. You aren't trying to force the young guys into the rotation. There is some value to them in retaining and kicking the can down the road. If they pick does convey I don't think they will cry but I think the preference is to have the pick.

We will only truly see what team they are on in the last 10 or so games. Is Lauri/Sexton playing? Are we playing guys like Kira Lewis?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

We will only truly see what team they are on in the last 10 or so games. Is Lauri/Sexton playing? Are we playing guys like Kira Lewis?

Nah they voted already.

Another key point imo is the top 10 pick this year has a better chance at maybe being ready to perform in Lauri's window than someone we draft a year or two from now. Like there is a time value of money type equation to be done here with kicking the can down the road.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Nah they voted already.

Another key point imo is the top 10 pick this year has a better chance at maybe being ready to perform in Lauri's window than someone we draft a year or two from now. Like there is a time value of money type equation to be done here with kicking the can down the road.

I mean, the trade was also about opening up minutes for rookies, getting off expiring contracts for guaranteed return and getting guaranteed picks in the draft. We won't truly see how much of that trade was aimed at losing games until they are really against the wall and have to make a tough choice of how desperate they are to lose those games.

If losing games was such a priority, you would have seen a Kris Dunn trade.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I mean, the trade was also about opening up minutes for rookies, getting off expiring contracts for guaranteed return and getting guaranteed picks in the draft. We won't truly see how much of that trade was aimed at losing games until they are really against the wall and have to make a tough choice of how desperate they are to lose those games.

If losing games was such a priority, you would have seen a Kris Dunn trade.

So what I mean is they voted that they are not Team Convey. Team Convey seems to think we NEED to convey the pick next year or we can't draft Cooper Flagg or some ****. If the FO felt we NEEDED to convey then they would have kept Simone and/or KO. I think the FO is on team "if the young guys play well enough we keep the pick great, but if not then we get a top 10 pick so cool"

They may not be team keep the pick... but they definitely aren't team convey.

 

[gomretat]

A bit more on the Hayward thing... there was a question if Hayward would be considered a "buy" move with his age and being an expiring contract, in addition to the question of being better than a starter. Pretend we traded for Hayward and everyone on Twitter is melting down and everyone is tagging Tony about this move because 1. the drama but also 2. he's too old, expiring, not good anymore, etc. What does Tony say? When all of Jazz twitter is down on a Jazz player or acquisition, Tony is more dispassionate. Does Tony say that's a buyers move? Yes. Is it a buyers move? Yes. I mean, despite age, he's still only 33. Pretend it's not Hayward and you go out and grab someone putting up 14.5 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, a steal and only 2 turnovers. If you get a solid all-around player that you can plug in to any lineup, that's a buying move, especially at the time if there was question of pushing for play-offs/play-in.

Agreed. And most of the age stuff put out on this board makes no sense. Simone and KO had plenty to offer in any reasonable timeline.

 

[default]

I still wonder about Brandon Ingram. He has been to only ONE All- Star Game so might not qualify as a "star" to Tony. He is still much better than the average NBA starter. I haven't heard any chatter on him coming to the Jazz. He's only 26 years old. He would be a very good fit with this team, fits Lauri's timeline, and is a 20+ per game scorer who's stats are honestly as good as Lauri.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I still wonder about Brandon Ingram. He has been to only ONE All- Star Game so might not qualify as a "star" to Tony. He is still much better than the average NBA starter. I haven't heard any chatter on him coming to the Jazz. He's only 26 years old. He would be a very good fit with this team, fits Lauri's timeline, and is a 20+ per game scorer who's stats are honestly as good as Lauri.

I would think that's a star but its highly subjective. I would probably flip that card down because of that but I'd put the name aside to revisit if I got more evidence.

 

[framer]

The Jazz management team already voted. If they were strongly Team Convey I think you definitely hold on to Simone. You aren't trying to force the young guys into the rotation. There is some value to them in retaining and kicking the can down the road. If they pick does convey I don't think they will cry but I think the preference is to have the pick.

Eh, I can see maneuvering into that 11-14 slot on the outside chance you hit the lottery. A 1-3 pick would be cool, even in this draft. If you think a 12 pick is worth something like an 18 pick next year, which is possible, I can see them wanting the pick to convey strongly should they not get lucky. Pick protections get messy when you are commodifying draft picks.