Jazz 2017->onwards payroll projection

[SCS]

Moving them at this point would be jumping the gun way too early. You have to see what you have and develop your talent first. Nobody actually knows we are a player away.

Time isn't a luxury the Jazz have anymore. Gordon Hayward opts out next off season looking for the max. So the Jazz have until the February 2017 trade deadline to determine the future of this team. That's the point of no return on the Hayward decision. That decision is the biggest one in the future of this team.

 

[BTP]

Easier to find cheaper guards than cheaper bigs.

This logic doesn't apply here for 3 reasons:

1)Bigs are less sought after these days, unless they're great at sth.
2)George Hill's game isn't reliant on speed or athleticism. There's very little reason he can't age like an Andre Miller or J Kidd.
3)He was massively underutilized in Indiana and focused way more on his defensive qualities. He's a top5 defender under 6'4"(CP3, Avery Bradley, John Wall, Lowry - in no particular order) - BUT his offense is based on spacing and reading the floor. His length allows him to finish around the basket(70% in 14/15). In 14/15 when the Pacers needed him more as a playmaker, he ended up having a 21 PER and >.2 WS/48 and a low 10% TO ratio. He's awesome. $16M is gonna be a steal that's due to age or Spurs brainwashing if he's still capable when given the opportunity to make plays.

 

[fishonjazz]

Easier to find cheaper guards than cheaper bigs.

There were some incredibly overpaid guards this summer too iirc

 

[The Midnight]

This logic doesn't apply here for 3 reasons:

1)Bigs are less sought after these days, unless they're great at sth.
2)George Hill's game isn't reliant on speed or athleticism. There's very little reason he can't age like an Andre Miller or J Kidd.
3)He was massively underutilized in Indiana and focused way more on his defensive qualities. He's a top5 defender under 6'4"(CP3, Avery Bradley, John Wall, Lowry - in no particular order) - BUT his offense is based on spacing and reading the floor. His length allows him to finish around the basket(70% in 14/15). In 14/15 when the Pacers needed him more as a playmaker, he ended up having a 21 PER and >.2 WS/48 and a low 10% TO ratio. He's awesome. $16M is gonna be a steal that's due to age or Spurs brainwashing if he's still capable when given the opportunity to make plays.

Agreed.


$16m for Hill in this crazy market would be just about right IMO.


Also about our core, Hill can play behind both Exum and Hood. We need a SOLID back up for both of those guys. Hill can play 2 positions - that's the main selling point for DL. He mentioned this in various interviews about why we got him. Hill will stay. DL will push hard to make him retire in Utah. We didn't give up a 1st just for a 1 year rental in a non-contending year.

 

[framer]

This logic doesn't apply here for 3 reasons:

1)Bigs are less sought after these days, unless they're great at sth.
2)George Hill's game isn't reliant on speed or athleticism. There's very little reason he can't age like an Andre Miller or J Kidd.
3)He was massively underutilized in Indiana and focused way more on his defensive qualities. He's a top5 defender under 6'4"(CP3, Avery Bradley, John Wall, Lowry - in no particular order) - BUT his offense is based on spacing and reading the floor. His length allows him to finish around the basket(70% in 14/15). In 14/15 when the Pacers needed him more as a playmaker, he ended up having a 21 PER and >.2 WS/48 and a low 10% TO ratio. He's awesome. $16M is gonna be a steal that's due to age or Spurs brainwashing if he's still capable when given the opportunity to make plays.

Bigs are still sought after, look at Deng, Noah, and Mozgov. A small on the wrong side of 30 isn't going to get 16 million by default. That is Allen Crabbe money. And for every stupid deal that happens, there is one less team that can offer a stupid deal.

If Hill gets 16 million, then he will have blown up and the Jazz should just ease into the salary cap at that point because we will at least have made it into the second round. If we have done that, then the value of the young core will also have skyrocketed and they will be well worth their high dollar contracts as assets.

In a future where Hill is worth 16 million, you go ahead and max Heyward because he will have earned star status. Your biggest concern at that point would likely be Exum, because he would have never earned time from Hill.

 

[The Midnight]

Bigs are still sought after, look at Deng, Noah, and Mozgov. A small on the wrong side of 30 isn't going to get 16 million by default. That is Allen Crabbe money. And for every stupid deal that happens, there is one less team that can offer a stupid deal.

If Hill gets 16 million, then he will have blown up and the Jazz should just ease into the salary cap at that point because we will at least have made it into the second round. If we have done that, then the value of the young core will also have skyrocketed and they will be well worth their high dollar contracts as assets.

In a future where Hill is worth 16 million, you go ahead and max Heyward because he will have earned star status. Your biggest concern at that point would likely be Exum, because he would have never earned time from Hill.

The better player will play - simple as that. Exum needs to EARN his minutes. This is no kindergarten, this is the big league.


I believe over time, if Exum is as good as advertised, he will start, Hill is the ULTIMATE TEAM PLAYER, you heard him in the interview, he is all about winning, no matter what. Hill will be quite happy to backing up Exum (if he deserves to start), and Hood (who is already a rising star).

 

[karl malone]

The ability to retain our core long-term is definitely one of the biggest potential problems looming over what is an extremely bright future. I'm still holding out hope (most likely naively) that we are a 3-4 seed, make a deep run, & stay competitive enough against GSW/SAS to convince Hayward to re-sign for less than the max. It may be unlikely but it would set an example to the rest of our team & is probably the only chance we have at keeping this core together long enough to (hopefully) eventually become legitimate championship contenders.

 

[BTP]

Bigs are still sought after, look at Deng, Noah, and Mozgov. A small on the wrong side of 30 isn't going to get 16 million by default. That is Allen Crabbe money. And for every stupid deal that happens, there is one less team that can offer a stupid deal.

If Hill gets 16 million, then he will have blown up and the Jazz should just ease into the salary cap at that point because we will at least have made it into the second round. If we have done that, then the value of the young core will also have skyrocketed and they will be well worth their high dollar contracts as assets.

In a future where Hill is worth 16 million, you go ahead and max Heyward because he will have earned star status. Your biggest concern at that point would likely be Exum, because he would have never earned time from Hill.

Noah's a great passer, The Lakers are great at spending recklessly.
Hayward's getting maxed no matter what and I'm really optimistic, Hill will be very impactful. He'll also be a starter until Exum outperforms him.

 

[MDAV28]

This logic doesn't apply here for 3 reasons:

1)Bigs are less sought after these days, unless they're great at sth.
2)George Hill's game isn't reliant on speed or athleticism. There's very little reason he can't age like an Andre Miller or J Kidd.
3)He was massively underutilized in Indiana and focused way more on his defensive qualities. He's a top5 defender under 6'4"(CP3, Avery Bradley, John Wall, Lowry - in no particular order) - BUT his offense is based on spacing and reading the floor. His length allows him to finish around the basket(70% in 14/15). In 14/15 when the Pacers needed him more as a playmaker, he ended up having a 21 PER and >.2 WS/48 and a low 10% TO ratio. He's awesome. $16M is gonna be a steal that's due to age or Spurs brainwashing if he's still capable when given the opportunity to make plays.

I wasn't necessarily arguing that George can't get $16 million, you don't need to convince me on him.

I thought bigs would be less sought after too but yet here we are.

 

[MDAV28]

Time isn't a luxury the Jazz have anymore. Gordon Hayward opts out next off season looking for the max. So the Jazz have until the February 2017 trade deadline to determine the future of this team. That's the point of no return on the Hayward decision. That decision is the biggest one in the future of this team.

We are projecting to have a very successful season. So Hayward would be leaving a team hitting it's peak and leaving a guaranteed year and money on the table. The decision will be easy.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Diaw is unguaranteed for next year. He is overpaid (slightly) and will be waived and we may resign him but at a much lower number. I think Burks will be moved and Hill retained.

The real questions start in 2018... If favs is not renegotiated he is a FA due for a big raise. Hood and Exum both due for big raises. I guess if Exum shows enough we may be able to let Hill walk but I'm not sure he makes a big enough jump to get me confident enough to roll with just Exum. We likely have to make a decision on someone that year unless we get Hood and Exum on extensions that are big time bargains. My guess is likely we trade favors if lyles is ready... Or move Hayward and his megamax... Some tough decisions loom.

 

[SCS]

We are projecting to have a very successful season. So Hayward would be leaving a team hitting it's peak and leaving a guaranteed year and money on the table. The decision will be easy.

I wasn't talking about Haywards decision. For him it's easy. Opt out, wait for a fat contract, sign it. I was talking about the decision the Jazz have. If they give Hayward the max, multiple pieces of our core will be lost one way or another. So their decision in regards to him will decide the future of the team.