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Jazz Defensive on/off court ratings - Particularly Deron Williams

sirkickyass

sirkickyass

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All usual caveats apply (and yes I'm well aware of +/- style shortcomings and take them for what they're worth) but this far into the season some of the numbers are striking.

https://basketballvalue.com/teampla...summary&sortnumber=85&sortorder=DESC&team=UTA

It appears a lot of these are unit-specific but the shocking near-equivalence of Deron's massive -11.66 number and Earl Watson's 11.32 number can't be ignored. Deron's -11.66 number is truly, truly awful on a league-wide basis.

I started looking at this because of Hollinger's recent piece about all-star selections in which he made a comment about Monta Ellis' defense, which is very bad.

The most damning line on Ellis's résumé, however, remains the fact that an awful defensive team magically becomes decent as soon as he checks out of the game. Looking at Golden State's basketballvalue.com chart will amaze you -- no other substitution has any impact on their defensive numbers, but replacing Ellis immediately produces a dramatic improvement.
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However, he speaks positively about Deron's defense in passing while discussing Manu Ginobili.

The best player on the league's best team, Ginobili nonetheless has a tough fight in this group. Despite playing only 31.5 minutes a game, he prevails for a few reasons. First, he's probably the best defender on this list other than Williams. Second, he's consistently played at this level for the past seven years, so we can confidently say this is his true level of ability and not a short-term fluke
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The numbers, however, from Hollinger's preferred source seem to indicate that Williams and Ellis are equivalent defensively if we don't control for units. When Monta is on the court the Warriors give up 112.47 points per 100 possessions. When Monta is off the court the Warriors give up 103.12 points per 100 possessions. By contrast, when Deron is on the court the Jazz give up 110.66 points per 100 possessions and 99.00 points when he's off it. That delta is actually larger than Ellis' and that all the numbers on a per 100 possession basis are lower makes it seem unlikely that we can blame this entirely on Williams having defensively poor teammates.

This is hardly the first year Williams has had poor Defensive on/off numbers. For example:

https://basketballvalue.com/teampla...ber=85&sortorder=DESC&team=UTA&year=2008-2009

Also, a very strong argument here for playing the Watson/Evans combo in longer spurts and not just in garbage time.

As long as I'm indulging in this particular rabbit hole Fesenko looks good. He should play more. :)
 
Sirkickyass said:
The numbers, however, from Hollinger's preferred source seem to indicate that Williams and Ellis are equivalent defensively if we don't control for units. When Monta is on the court the Warriors give up 112.47 points per 100 possessions. When Monta is off the court the Warriors give up 103.12 points per 100 possessions.
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I seem to remember a game where the Warriors only allowed 81 points..... hmmm...

Naw, but really, these are some interesting digits. I've been very underwhelmed with DWill ever since he came off that hot streak early in the year.

YES TO EVANS
YES TO FES
 
I wonder how much timing has to do with it. Deron is playing a ton of minutes, leaving very few to Watson/Price backups. If they are playing 1/2 of their available minutes during garbage time, let's say just for fun, then that means that during that garbage time they are likely to be even or ahead. The other 1/2 comes largely against the other team's 2nd units. So in all they have the easier time spans on the court to play (even if it isn't a 50/50 split). Deron on the other hand is hampered by playing always against the other team's first unit, and dealing with woefully inconsistent players around him. I would be interested to see what the numbers are for Bell and AK for example. That is a factor left out is who plays with whom. This might be more a measure of each units performance (starters vs. bench) than it is a reflection on Deron or Watsons personal defense per se. Interesting suff as usual Kicky. Nice find.
 
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Earl puts a lot of pressure on the opposing point and it often disrupts the opposing offense. I think its a big part. I need to pay attention tonight and see if he can maintain that through long minutes. I'm sure there is more to it that this, but it's one thing I've noticed.
 
Don't get me wrong, I've had the same level of man crush on Deron ever since that 2nd season that he emerged as "the man".

But this season he has been pouty, disengaged and really hasn't seemed to do much to accommodate the new personnel. I don't think those numbers are unusual at all because Deron has also been very passive this season. When he first came into the league he had one of the best motors in the game.. constantly attacking the rim, getting to the line and pushing the ball down the defense's throats. Nowadays and particularly the last couple of months, he's been walking the ball up the floor, never seeming interested in getting ahead of the defense, and he's settling for passing the ball off and letting other guys take jumpers instead of abusing the man that's guarding him.

I'm also not saying it's all Deron's fault, either, but over the course of time this season he's been less and less like what made Deron great, originally. The team has definitely fallen asleep constantly this season, both offensively and defensively, but Deron's the guy and the guy needs to show the team how they're supposed to play if they want to win, and frankly he just hasn't shown much of it lately.

I don't know what his problem is, but teams and especially defenders aren't going to give him a free pass anymore. They know what he's capable of, and it seems like lately if you get up in his ****, he doesn't respond back with the fire we saw a season or two ago.
 
The same plus minus stats can be said for 3 of the 5 starters... they get outscored every first quarter and the second unit makes up for it in the second quarter... this has happened numerous times. It skews the plus minus of deron. Locke did the same comparison for al jefferson and got basically the same plus minus numbers.

However you should look at the adjusted plus minus stats. They show deron as one of the best in the west along with paul.


Slcdunk.com
 
As we have been wondering about Sap, is Deron nursing a hidden injury? I know his wrist has him out of it now, but could he have something that has been bothering him the past month or so? I know his cross-over and blow-by move has been toned down ever since his ankle injury last season. Makes me wonder.
 
The same plus minus stats can be said for 3 of the 5 starters... they get outscored every first quarter and the second unit makes up for it in the second quarter... this has happened numerous times. It skews the plus minus of everyone in the first unit. Locke did the same comparison for al jefferson and got basically the same plus minus numbers.

However you should look at the adjusted plus minus stats. They show deron as one of the best in the west along with paul.


Slcdunk.com
 
Hilarious. Love how OP managed to type all of that and keep a straight face.
 
LogGrad98 said:
As we have been wondering about Sap, is Deron nursing a hidden injury? I know his wrist has him out of it now, but could he have something that has been bothering him the past month or so? I know his cross-over and blow-by move has been toned down ever since his ankle injury last season. Makes me wonder.
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With the way he's been pouting and electing to shoot jumpers instead of get to the rim, it seems a little more like complacency, to me.
 
unluckyseventeen said:
With the way he's been pouting and electing to shoot jumpers instead of get to the rim, it seems a little more like complacency, to me.
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I was trying to give him the benefit of the doubt, and nurse my denial because you are probably right.
 
stalker.jpg
 
Those are unadjusted ratings, kicky. Another words while Deron Williams is guarding Chris Paul, Earl Watson is guarding Jason Hart. Ok extreme example, but you get the point. Although Earl holds up very well on adjusted +/- as well, so he is still the man.
 
unluckyseventeen said:
With the way he's been pouting and electing to shoot jumpers instead of get to the rim, it seems a little more like complacency, to me.
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I haven't seen him doing that more this year than in others and would be curious to see if there's any statistical measure to support that. If that is the case, it's also probably symptomatic of having a 'REAL POST PLAYER!!1' on the team and no one to stretch the floor.
 
NUMBERICA said:
I haven't seen him doing that more this year than in others and would be curious to see if there's any statistical measure to support that. If that is the case, it's also probably symptomatic of having a 'REAL POST PLAYER!!1' on the team and no one to stretch the floor.
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What, taking jumpers? I can tell you that 74% of his shots are jumpers according to 82games. Couldn't tell you about prior years.. it's just an observation from me watching him play that he settles for jumpers more this year and works a lot less to get better looks. His audible and visual frustrations this year are worse than ever. Just putting 2 and 2 together.

Not that this is directly related, but does anybody recall Williams yelling at Hayward on that play vs the Suns, and then Hayward makes a nice V-Cut and scores after working through the post? Just thought that was a little amusing. "You scored because of good recognition!? WHAT THE ****!!!??" We have a very stubborn coach and PG.
 
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