Jazz Free Agency Summer of 2018

[LoPo]

I'll have to dig through the numbers to get a better feel for the cap landscape, but that looks like good work. If the figures are right on Philly:
-If we find a taker for Burks, we have more space
-If we don't find a taker or don't want to find a taker, what can we get from Philly to take on Bayless?

As for Philly, they are at around $26: https://bleacherreport.com/articles...ng-everything-to-clear-space-for-max-contract

They would have enough for LeBron's $35 million max if they shed Bayless.

For Bayless, I would say it would be fair to take Philly's 2019 1st rounder. Bayless makes around $9 million in an expiring contract and Philly's 1st should be in the mid-20's of a bad draft.

 

[NUMBERICA]

As for Philly, they are at around $26: https://bleacherreport.com/articles...ng-everything-to-clear-space-for-max-contract

They would have enough for LeBron's $35 million max if they shed Bayless.

For Bayless, I would say it would be fair to take Philly's 2019 1st rounder. Bayless makes around $9 million in an expiring contract and Philly's 1st should be in the mid-20's of a bad draft.

I want that 2021 pick they got in the Zhaire/Mikal swap.

 

[Ron Mexico]

I want that 2021 pick they got in the Zhaire/Mikal swap.

It seems unlikely since they can simply stretch Bayless and not pick up the option on Holmes to have enough room to sign Lebron if he wanted to go there. Otherwise they have plenty of cap space for anyone else they want to chase if they miss out on Lebron. Or they will probably wait and try and strike in 2019 when they have even more room and more options.

 

[NUMBERICA]

It seems unlikely since they can simply stretch Bayless and not pick up the option on Holmes to have enough room to sign Lebron if he wanted to go there. Otherwise they have plenty of cap space for anyone else they want to chase if they miss out on Lebron. Or they will probably wait and try and strike in 2019 when they have even more room and more options.

Ehh. I'm greedy, and I don't particularly want to help them out, but you're right.

 

[LoPo]

Based off my number breakdown above, let's look at these 8 teams(I'm not counting us right now). Here is what I think those teams do with their money:

Lakers ($60 million) - They are going big game hunting. I think they end up with PG, Cousins, LBJ, Kawhi, and/or another. If they only get one of those guys, I think they keep Randle. The combination of those 2 (whoever it is), will pretty much take all their cap room. If they don't get big names, they will do another year of big 1 year contracts so they keep 2019 space.

Sixers ($26 million) - They try to get LeBron or Kawhi. If they can't get either, they will do another big one year deal for Reddick. If they strike out on the big guys, they don't do anything to compromise 2019 space much like the Lakers.

Mavs ($25 million) - They target Capella, Cousins, and Randle in that order. More than likely, they get one of them. Option 4 would be DeAndre Jordan who they could trade something minor for and save the Clippers some money. If they don't get one of those 4, guys like Favors and Brook Lopez enter the discussion.

Hawks ($20 million) - I think they sign Favors, and try to do a trade like absorb Bayless for a first. They aren't ambitious enough to go after a Cousins or Capella. They took Trae Young over Doncic largely because the FO wanted somebody to fill seats. Favors won't do this on the same level, but he's a local guy who went to a local college who Atlanta could sell to local fans.

Kings ($19 million) - They don't have a 2019 1st so they will spend all of their money. Overspend for Ariza, IT, Favors, Marcus Smart, Tyreke Evans, Rudy Gay, Will Barton? Jabari Parker might get a bunch of money from the Kings.

Suns ($18 million) - I think the Suns are going to overpay to get Marcus Smart. They is already a bunch of chatter that the Suns will target a PG and stretch 4 in free agency. Smart would help set a defensive tone there.

Pacers ($12 million) - Another Marcus Smart type place. If they miss there, I see them going after Barton or Tyreke Evans. I don't think the Pacers would take a salary dump for an asset. They want to win now.

Bulls ($10 million) - The Bulls and Hawks seem like the only 2 teams who would consider salary dumps so they can pick up an asset. They don't have much to spend considering they need to keep LeVine and Vonleh, but they could take a Bayless.

 

[LoPo]

It seems unlikely since they can simply stretch Bayless and not pick up the option on Holmes to have enough room to sign Lebron if he wanted to go there. Otherwise they have plenty of cap space for anyone else they want to chase if they miss out on Lebron. Or they will probably wait and try and strike in 2019 when they have even more room and more options.

That's not true. If they stretch Bayless, he costs $3 million per year for 3 years. The $26 million I showed earlier included all the space they can possibly clear off minus TJ McConnell who they definitely keep for less than $1.5.

LeBron, at the max, will get $35. So stretching Bayless only gives Philly $32. Philly would have to dump Bayless and/or other guys like Korkmaz, Luwawu, etc. to get to $35.

You are right that Philly has plenty of money for any other free agent (PG, etc.) should they stretch Bayless.

 

[NUMBERICA]

I think no matter what, you let Favors hit the market and go shopping. Either he signs somewhere, or the money dries up and then is forced to come back to the Jazz, ready to take a cheap longterm deal or explore the one year option.

In no situation am I paying Favors significantly more longterm than what he's making right now. Even at a shade above the MLE, I wouldn't feel awesome about it.

 

[Ron Mexico]

That's not true. If they stretch Bayless, he costs $3 million per year for 3 years. The $26 million I showed earlier included all the space they can possibly clear off minus TJ McConnell who they definitely keep for less than $1.5.

LeBron, at the max, will get $35. So stretching Bayless only gives Philly $32. Philly would have to dump Bayless and/or other guys like Korkmaz, Luwawu, etc. to get to $35.

You are right that Philly has plenty of money for any other free agent (PG, etc.) should they stretch Bayless.

Im not sure where you got the 26 number from.

They are sitting at 70.5 million if they waive all the cap holds. The contract on Holmes is not guaranteed, they can waive him and get that number to 69 million. If they stretch Bayless that saves an extra 5.7 million. That puts them below 64 million and the cap is going to be 101 million. That is ~37 million in space, Lebron will cost 35 million in space.

http://www.spotrac.com/nba/philadelphia-76ers/cap/

 

[LoPo]

I think no matter what, you let Favors hit the market and go shopping. Either he signs somewhere, or the money dries up and then is forced to come back to the Jazz, ready to take a cheap longterm deal or explore the one year option.

In no situation am I paying Favors significantly more longterm than what he's making right now. Even at a shade above the MLE, I wouldn't feel awesome about it.

As the numbers I posted show, there are literally no teams who will overspend for Favors. Only 8 teams in the league have cap space and 2 of those teams only have around $10 million. Dallas, the Lakers and Sixers aren't in the market for a guy like Favors. So it comes down to the Kings, Hawks, Pacers, Bulls and Kings giving him more than $8.6 million which is the full MLE.

We have a very good chance of keeping Favors and Exum for less than $8.6 million each this season. A very, very good chance.

 

[LoPo]

Im not sure where you got the 26 number from.

They are sitting at 70.5 million if they waive all the cap holds. The contract on Holmes is not guaranteed, they can waive him and get that number to 69 million. If they stretch Bayless that saves an extra 5.7 million. That puts them below 64 million and the cap is going to be 101 million. That is ~37 million in space, Lebron will cost 35 million in space.

http://www.spotrac.com/nba/philadelphia-76ers/cap/

Please just read the articles I'm posting. It's all very current and based off of conversations since the draft taking into account rookie holds, etc. $26 comes from these:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles...ng-everything-to-clear-space-for-max-contract

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/maximum-salary-cap-space-projections-for-2018-19/

 

[Ron Mexico]

Please just read the articles I'm posting. It's all very current and based off of conversations since the draft taking into account rookie holds, etc. $26 comes from these:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles...ng-everything-to-clear-space-for-max-contract

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/maximum-salary-cap-space-projections-for-2018-19/

The article you just posted says 27.6 million right now after waiving non guarantees and cap holds. They are not going to let TJ get in the way of signing Lebron. They can easily not pick up his guarantee and sign another min contract PG to fill the spot. There are also lots of other trades to clear up room including a sign and trade. Plus this is all a matter of whether Lebron would come and if he does if he cares about 1-2 million dollars.

I did leave off the 3.6 from the salary of the 2 rookies. But I still think their numbers are off in that article according to sport trac.

 

[SCS]

I’ve been reading tea leaves and here are some things that will happen this season:

1- Kemba Walker will get traded... might be pre season but they kicked salary down the road and will end up way in the tax next year for what they will have to pay him.

2- The Lakers will end up missing on LBJ and PG, Spurs are already saying piss off to west teams so they miss on Kahwi.

3- Lakers get desperate and sign Cousins... even though they say they will be patient. Infection will get sad because they keep Niko long term.

4- Suns sign Marcus Smart to something stupid... he becomes the Evan Turner but with better defense.

5- Mavs try to sign Cousins and Capela but end up with Favors.

6- Orlando signs Exum to a MLE deal... Utah matches @Shad loses his **** and claims he’s worth less than the minimum.

7- Philly misses out on the big free agents but ends up signing KCP or Avery Bradley or Trevor Ariza.

8- Houston signs CP3 to the worst contract in the nba... 5 year megamax.

9- Sacramento tries to sign Jabari, Gordon, and ends up signing a washed up vet that can’t shoot... who then demands a trade mid season.

10- most or all of these predictions will be wrong but if they are right I’ll be insufferable.

I could see a lot of this happening. But if Houston signs CP3 to a 5 year megamax and the Lakers and 76ers miss on get the big name free agents, where do LBJ/PG/Kawhi end up??