Schrödinger's Gerbil
Well-Known Member
More people win when you're stuck in the middle than when you're spinning your wheels on the lottery treadmill year after year.
What is the "middle" anyway? I'm curious how you define it.
Jazz hire Celtics Assistant GM Austin Ainge as new President of Basketball Operations
- Thread starter Elizah Huge
- Start date
What is the "middle" anyway? I'm curious how you define it.
You probably knew something like this would be coming, after I this past season or two providing evidence that tanking is overrated, that it doesn't very reliably produce the results we're hoping the Jazz have, and that the value of draft picks (difference between high and low picks) seems to be converging somewhat in recent years. And with all of the hullabaloo after the A. Ainge hire over the question of whether it's franchise malpractice to risk next year's pick and whether we should move players at below-market value to do that, maybe this bit of data is worth thinking about:
Of the final four playoff teams (before the Pacers' victory in Game 1 last night) -- categorization of players on the roster by draft position:
Number of players
1-10: 11
11-20: 12
20-30: 13
After 30: 23
Playoff total win shares
1-10: 10.9
11-20: 10.5
20-30: 8.1
After 30: 11.7
For this year's best teams, having a high draft pick increases your odds of doing well over lower picks. But just barely. The differences are likely much smaller than I think we imagine. These teams have, in Ainge's words, stacked, many good moves on top of each other. It may be far more important that we make good moves generally than that we just maximize our draft position. Maybe protecting next year's pick shouldn't be considered the end-all and be-all of the franchise's future. Protecting the pick might end up as the best move we can make, but I hardly think we can make that decision before the front office checks out what other options might be available.
Of the final four playoff teams (before the Pacers' victory in Game 1 last night) -- categorization of players on the roster by draft position:
Number of players
1-10: 11
11-20: 12
20-30: 13
After 30: 23
Playoff total win shares
1-10: 10.9
11-20: 10.5
20-30: 8.1
After 30: 11.7
For this year's best teams, having a high draft pick increases your odds of doing well over lower picks. But just barely. The differences are likely much smaller than I think we imagine. These teams have, in Ainge's words, stacked, many good moves on top of each other. It may be far more important that we make good moves generally than that we just maximize our draft position. Maybe protecting next year's pick shouldn't be considered the end-all and be-all of the franchise's future. Protecting the pick might end up as the best move we can make, but I hardly think we can make that decision before the front office checks out what other options might be available.
Peter Effin' Parker
Well-Known Member
Would Boston consider trading Tatum while he's hurt and they are in luxury cap hell? I know they talk has been about moving Brown, but Tatum sits all next year and may come back worse than before.
Maybe Austin knows something about that and can make it happen. I would take an injured Tatum for one more tank year.
Maybe Austin knows something about that and can make it happen. I would take an injured Tatum for one more tank year.
HadAnEffectHere
Well-Known Member
Zach Lowe talks about the Jazz:
View: https://youtu.be/mHc0mSsSi2s?si=HMLMD-XsnqLIGMlx&t=4181
tl;dr, he doesn't think that people should take the Ainge comments too seriously. He says they would get a guy if some star falls in their lap, but he's been told they aren't going to after Trae Young. He just thinks they'll try hard this year instead of throwing games.
Also talks about two scouts being fired/not re-signed and how that was likely due to Cody Williams.
Howard Beck thinks Lauri has a good bit of value still, Zach Lowe does not think he currently has much trade value. Just somewhat positive. Lowe thinks that Markkanen needs to play a lot of games and play well to get his trade value up.
View: https://youtu.be/mHc0mSsSi2s?si=HMLMD-XsnqLIGMlx&t=4181
tl;dr, he doesn't think that people should take the Ainge comments too seriously. He says they would get a guy if some star falls in their lap, but he's been told they aren't going to after Trae Young. He just thinks they'll try hard this year instead of throwing games.
Also talks about two scouts being fired/not re-signed and how that was likely due to Cody Williams.
Howard Beck thinks Lauri has a good bit of value still, Zach Lowe does not think he currently has much trade value. Just somewhat positive. Lowe thinks that Markkanen needs to play a lot of games and play well to get his trade value up.
Tremendous Upside
Well-Known Member
Nice to know Zach Lowe reads my posts.
The problem is that Lauri is a team oriented guy who will always look bad with terrible teammates. Don't see any way for him to regain his value at Utah now that it's been destroyed.
Double Ainge will have to listen to lowball offers to get him the F out of here.
FrenchJazzFa
Well-Known Member
The trade DA make until now have just turn to be terrible. Cavs are good, one piece away to contend. Minny is really good, 2 WCF in a row, they get an upgrade on Randle or Mike and they are a true contender.... Jazz are ready for tanking one more time and pray for lottery. I don't see that as a good strategy unless you know you are on a 5-7 years complete rebuild. But in this case, Lauri, Sexton should be trade.