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Jazz Suns trade

Good trade. Jazz has so many average/at most borderline all star ceiling young guys already and it's unlikely to get any significantly better with those 25, 27, 29 late firsts. In 2031, Jazz is projected to be a deep playoff team, who will also going to have the possible studs from -25 and -26 drafts in their 2nd contracts, as well as any of these current players on rookie contracts. At that point, it's really great having picks to add talent for the team, or if lucky, getting another star from the draft. And Jazz has still a load of picks in the future after this trade, to try acquire all star player via trade. Good trade.
 
hgb said:
The '25 and '27 Cavs picks are definitely mid, but I certainly wouldn't call the Wolves picks mid. Not the '29 Cavs pick either.
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Right now the Cavs 25 is not mid, but awful and almost worthless. It's the #30 pick, which is less valuable than an early 2nd. The Cavs 27 is also clearly below average. At the time of the Mitchell trade, they were mid, but the Cavs have overperformed their expectation and look to do so for a few years still.

The Minny picks might grow in value. Or they might also plummet, mainly if Ant figures everything out and steps up to the SGA level of MVP candidacy.
 
Bottom line: the ability of the picks that the Jazz traded out had a 0% chance of hitting top-3*and the pick they got back has a (higher-than-average) chance of hitting top-3 right now. Furthermore, there is a long runway to cashing in high value since they don’t have to draft with it.

When you’re already overwhelmed with prospects to develop and picks coming in down the line, you make that trade 8 days of the week.

*again, these are not necessarily Cavs picks, they are LOWEST picks of Cavs/Wolves/Jazz, which means the only way they hit in the lottery is if all three teams win the lottery which is just absolutely not happening. More than half the league makes the playoffs for god’s sake.
 
This is probably really minor since our pick seems really far out of the picture for being the worst of the 3 we had this year, but notice that it's not included in the trade. Maybe the Jazz are keeping it as a valuable asset in case something extraordinary pops up before the trade deadline.

In general, I love this trade. It solves a bit of the problem of diminishing returns for the boat load of picks we had and it gives us some high end outcomes even if it's later in time. Good job, Danny...
 
Something worth keeping in mind is that if the Suns suck next year they could have a decent pick since it seems doubtful to me that Washington suddenly becomes a playoff team. By ‘28, it would seem the Wizards would be ascendant (at least in the East RS), so there just isn’t a good pick for PHX that year.

We gotta hope right now that the Suns get Butler and that it goes well enough that their draft returns are awful and they then suddenly fall off a cliff in a couple of years. I like the odds there because Butler is still incredible when he wants to be… for now.
 
It's a gamble that will end up being great, awful or somewhere in between.

At least the FO expects the two later picks to be our own picks = The Jazz not sucking forever.
 
Just a quick thought that probably didn’t need to be expressed:

Teams that don’t own their pick are almost always going to have better records than teams who do, so you don’t see many teams who are bad accidentally with top 5 lottery odds. Typically a team trying to be bad on purpose can beat out a team that has no reason to be bad for the top lottery odds positioning. However, with increasingly flattened odds there is a much higher chance of owning a team’s pick that turns in to a top 4 pick since teams who have no reason to be bad, but still end up with the 7-14 best lottery odds are still reasonably likely to win the lottery.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Just a quick thought that probably didn’t need to be expressed:

Teams that don’t own their pick are almost always going to have better records than teams who do, so you don’t see many teams who are bad accidentally with top 5 lottery odds. Typically a team trying to be bad on purpose can beat out a team that has no reason to be bad for the top lottery odds positioning.
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This is my biggest concern. The Suns obviously know exactly what we are trying to do, and they of course are going to try and implement a plan to ensure they are not terrible in 2031. They have a full 6 years to figure it out. They could easily try and compete for the next 2-3 seasons, and proceed to bottom out in 28' and 29', before being at least a middling team in 2031. Even if for some reason they fail on that front, as mentioned, they have no incentive to be bad in 31', and there will be at least 5-7 teams trying to lose as much as possible.

With that said, I think Danny is aware of all this and plans to trade the asset in the next couple of seasons in a package for a good player.
 
stitches said:
This is probably really minor since our pick seems really far out of the picture for being the worst of the 3 we had this year, but notice that it's not included in the trade. Maybe the Jazz are keeping it as a valuable asset in case something extraordinary pops up before the trade deadline.

In general, I love this trade. It solves a bit of the problem of diminishing returns for the boat load of picks we had and it gives us some high end outcomes even if it's later in time. Good job, Danny...
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Probably just because our pick this year is already owed if outside of the protected range. It’s already traded.
 
If Jazz intends to keep Lauri long term and will find a great 1st rnd picks now, that 2031 is very valuable. When Lauri enters his season 4 of current contract, there will be transfer window open in 2027 spring, -27 summer, 2028 spring. The 2031 pick is there still far enough (but close enough for them to get their own rebuilds going sooner than later) for teams valuing it high at that point, and if the Jazz needs to nail a (semi) big fish to "complete" a possible team to fight for winning few playoffs series.

I think the earliest point Jazz start aggressively using their assets is 2026 summer, 2027 spring or summer,depending on how the young guys come together. This,unless they can land top 15 player before that,but I do t see it unlikely
 
AlaskanAssassin said:
This is my biggest concern. The Suns obviously know exactly what we are trying to do, and they of course are going to try and implement a plan to ensure they are not terrible in 2031. They have a full 6 years to figure it out. They could easily try and compete for the next 2-3 seasons, and proceed to bottom out in 28' and 29', before being at least a middling team in 2031. Even if for some reason they fail on that front, as mentioned, they have no incentive to be bad in 31', and there will be at least 5-7 teams trying to lose as much as possible.

With that said, I think Danny is aware of all this and plans to trade the asset in the next couple of seasons in a package for a good player.
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Agreed. The Suns are a really desirable location for NBA players. Barkley finished his career there, Nash signed in free agency, KD/Butler demand to be traded there, etc. I can see them trying to compete with KD the next 2-3 years but you know they will be big game hunting in FA by '29 to land another star to play next to Booker who should be entering the tail end of his prime. On paper that Suns pick looks like a huge asset at this point though. Wouldn't be surprised if Ainge ends up dealing it in the next few years while it's still a hot commodity.
 
Something I saw the other day... It might actually be more valuable to own a pick that is top 3 protected vs completely unprotected.

A team that has no protections will do all they can to win. A team with a top 4 protection will try to lose (assuming they are truly bad and wouldn't of be in the lottery even if they tried), but with the flat odds, there is still a decent likelihood even if they are the worst team, it will finish 5th.

For that reason, and my impatience, I still think the 2027 Lakers pick is the most valuable.
 
It's a little funny to me how much teams seem to care about picks they have already given away. I guess, I can see a little bit if the pick is going to a conference rival or maybe especially if a good first rounder turns into two seconds or something if it doesn't convey by a certain time period.

But a pick that's just already flat out another team's property? Doesn't seem like there's much value in trying to influence it (possibly changing your own plans in the process).

But I get it's kind of human nature to not want to be seen as losing the trade by having the pick turn out to be good.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Something I saw the other day... It might actually be more valuable to own a pick that is top 3 protected vs completely unprotected.

A team that has no protections will do all they can to win. A team with a top 4 protection will try to lose (assuming they are truly bad and wouldn't of be in the lottery even if they tried), but with the flat odds, there is still a decent likelihood even if they are the worst team, it will finish 5th.

For that reason, and my impatience, I still think the 2027 Lakers pick is the most valuable.
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Makes some sense.

Also means (in our case with the Lakers) that if they're truly bad (bottom-3 finish), there's slightly over 50% probability we won't get anything at all. (And only slightly better for us if they finish bottom 4 or 5.)

(At least we know that with these trades, our FO doesn't mind increasing the variability and betting that something big will happen.)
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Something I saw the other day... It might actually be more valuable to own a pick that is top 3 protected vs completely unprotected.

A team that has no protections will do all they can to win. A team with a top 4 protection will try to lose (assuming they are truly bad and wouldn't of be in the lottery even if they tried), but with the flat odds, there is still a decent likelihood even if they are the worst team, it will finish 5th.

For that reason, and my impatience, I still think the 2027 Lakers pick is the most valuable.
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Maybe if you are seeing it through to completion but I think as a trade asset it will be better to be unprotected in most cases. It will always depend on the long term outlook for the particular franchise.

I am not sure the Suns pick is the crown jewel of all the crown jewels like some are saying. Its really valuable. I might rather have some other picks out there though. I think what gives me hope is while there is enough time to cycle through a down cycle for the suns... they are about to blow their wad on Jimmy which may be okayish for this year but between the extension he and KD will get and the lack of other picks etc. The Suns will likely end up in a special place of NBA hell in a couple years when those contracts are a millstone and you have no picks to clear space to be a FA destination and because you were so reckless with spending your far out picks are frozen from being moved. You almost want them to be okayish for a year or two because it won't be a quick rebound unless they get a miracle. If they decided this summer it wasn't working and traded those guys while they still have some value... then I could see them being on the come up and the pick being meh.

I think we look to move this pick at some point. Whether for a star of for a move into the lotto in the nearer future. If Rome is on fire the perceived value of the pick will be quite high.

Either way we needed to consolidate at some point and this is a forward looking way to do that which retains really solid value. Basically if one of these picks in the 20s becomes a home run - Bane, OG, Rudy... then it might look bad but its a deal that makes a lot of sense.
 
Isiah Thomas is kind of the shadow GM. Ishbia is a new owner with more irrational confidence than I have seen maybe ever. KD and Jimmy have turned their backs on franchises multiple times. They are also headed for $60M contracts in their late 30s. Book is either in a slump or a bit of a decline (very likely a slump). Their tax bill is $168M this year... this wreaks of an owner who is just thinking about the next year and might be thinking "if this doesn't work out I just sell the team at a profit and bounce".
 
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