Excuse me, history would like a word with you.
Your logic appears flawed.
This only illustrates payoff if you happen to get a "that guy". Not the chances of getting "that guy".Data pluck lolzz.
Let's go by championships:
Michael Jordan, #3 pick, 7 championships. Hawkeem Olajuwon was the #1 that year. That top 3 draft class won every championship from 1990 to 1998.
1998-99 San Antonio Spurs Duncan #1 pick
1999-00 Los Angeles Lakers Shaq #1 pick
2000-01 Los Angeles Lakers Shaq #1 pick
2001-02 Los Angeles Lakers Shaq #1 pick
2002-03 San Antonio Spurs Duncan #1 pick
2003-04 Detroit Pistons Billups #3, Wallace #4,
2004-05 San Antonio Spurs Duncan #1 pick
2005-06 Miami Heat Shaq #1 pick, Wade should have gone 4th.
2006-07 San Antonio Spurs Duncan #1 pick
2007-08 Boston Celtics Exception, but two #5 picks (Allen, Garnett), and Pierce was 10th.
2008-09 Los Angeles Lakers Pau Gasol #3 pick
2009-10 Los Angeles Lakers Pau Gasol #3 pick
2010-11 Dallas Mavericks Tyson Chandler #2 pick, Jason Kidd #2 pick
There is a one year exception over the last 21.
Um we actually have TWO top three picks right now. How many do we need exactly?
Your logic is still flawed. You're totally ok with dropping a whole season, which risks re-affirming this "culture of loosing" people talk about, for a 25%, 21%, or 17% at getting the highest pick at any given time, all of which for 10% chance that that guy will be someone to help us win a championship?
Cuz... yeah. I won't tank the season for that. I would start youngins all year, and if it happens it happens, but I wouldn't purposely tank the season.
This only illustrates payoff if you happen to get a "that guy". Not the chances of getting "that guy".
Um we actually have TWO top three picks right now. How many do we need exactly?
Yes great plan. We have 2 #3 picks and 2 top ten picks in the last couple drafts. The best way to develop them is to let them play a lot but not at their best so we lose every game in hopes of a high pick. Hopefully we can break them of their confidence and any good habits they have so we can combine them with 1 more top ten pick and then suddenly we will be champions. I think we could sign Adam Morrison to give us another top 3 pick as well.
Data pluck lolzz.
Let's go by championships:
Michael Jordan, #3 pick, 7 championships. Hawkeem Olajuwon was the #1 that year. That top 3 draft class won every championship from 1990 to 1998.
1998-99 San Antonio Spurs Duncan #1 pick
1999-00 Los Angeles Lakers Shaq #1 pick
2000-01 Los Angeles Lakers Shaq #1 pick
2001-02 Los Angeles Lakers Shaq #1 pick
2002-03 San Antonio Spurs Duncan #1 pick
2003-04 Detroit Pistons Billups #3, Wallace #4,
2004-05 San Antonio Spurs Duncan #1 pick
2005-06 Miami Heat Shaq #1 pick, Wade should have gone 4th.
2006-07 San Antonio Spurs Duncan #1 pick
2007-08 Boston Celtics Exception, but two #5 picks (Allen, Garnett), and Pierce was 10th.
2008-09 Los Angeles Lakers Pau Gasol #3 pick
2009-10 Los Angeles Lakers Pau Gasol #3 pick
2010-11 Dallas Mavericks Tyson Chandler #2 pick, Jason Kidd #2 pick
There is a one year exception over the last 21.