Al Jefferson–Derrick Favors, Utah Jazz
Jefferson and Paul Millsap will both be free agents this summer, and with Favors and Enes Kanter onboard, it makes sense for Utah to pick just one — especially since the Jazz can re-sign one and still have max-level cap room leftover.2 But which one? The same choice could apply at the trade deadline, should Utah decide to move one outgoing free agent for assets it could use this season or in the future.
Favors has played many more minutes with Jefferson than with Millsap, with the idea that his shot-blocking and quickness could cover up Jefferson's plodding pick-and-roll defense. It worked last season, when the Jazz were much stingier with this pairing, but on the surface, it hasn't done the trick this season; the Jazz are surrendering an untenable 112.2 points per 100 possessions — far worse than the league's worst defense. Opponents are lighting up these groups with a 40 percent-plus mark from deep, and they are earning even more foul shots than the always foul-prone Jazz give up overall.
The offense is worse, too, with Favors struggling at times to figure out how to be of use during Jefferson's post-ups on the left block. His mid-range jumper is unreliable, though he has shown an ability to flash into the lane, catch, and make little 10-footers. The timing on those cuts can sometimes be off, especially since Utah's wings, especially Gordon Hayward, also like to cut to the hoop around Jefferson post-ups. Favors still hasn't polished his timing when he catches near the foul line and has a step or two to take before arriving at the rim; he reminds me of a less experienced Serge Ibaka in that way.
Still: Favors is an explosive athlete and decent pick-and-roll screener, and this setup worked last season. More encouraging: Opponents have done most of the scoring damage when Jefferson and Favors play with Millsap in ultra-big lineups; the two most-used such groups have both allowed more than 125 points per 100 possessions. Remove Millsap, and Utah is defending at an acceptable level with just the other two bigs. Downside: The offense has dipped far below the league's average without Millsap's jack-of-all-trades game.
The jury's out on whether Favors-Jefferson will be the foundation of a functional, well-spaced offense this season. But how much does this season matter for Utah, assuming they at least make the playoffs?
