N.B.A. Scouting Report on Fredette: Good but Not Great
Gerald Herbert/Associated Press
Jimmer Fredette, the nation's leading scorer at 28.8 points a game, led B.Y.U. into the Round of 16 after forgoing last year's N.B.A. draft.
By PETE THAMEL
Published: March 23, 2011
NEW ORLEANS — From conjuring up memories of Pete Maravich with his scoring binges to carrying Brigham Young to its first
N.C.A.A. tournament Round of 16 since 1981, Jimmer Fredette has put together one of the most remarkable college basketball seasons of this generation.
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Fredette, a 6-foot-2 shooting guard, has secured his legacy at Brigham Young, but questions remain on how his game will translate in the N.B.A.
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Fredette has improved his stock enough this season to be considered a mid-first round N.B.A. draft choice.
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Bulls guard Steve Kerr, a player whom Brigham Young's Jimmer Fredette has been compared with, pulling up for a jump shot in 1996.
Fredette, a 6-foot-2 shooting guard, has a chance to lead the Cougars even deeper into the tournament on Thursday night when third-seeded
B.Y.U. faces No. 2 Florida in a Southeast Region semifinal. And while Fredette’s legacy at B.Y.U. is secure, one of the biggest questions hovering over him is how his game will translate to the
N.B.A.
Interviews with a half-dozen N.B.A. scouts and front-office personnel provide a portrait of Fredette as a professional prospect. He is generally considered offensively gifted, defensively challenged and destined to be a solid rotation player in the N.B.A.
Stardom, however, is unlikely, the scouts and front-office personnel said. Comparative players that came up were Jeff Hornacek, Steve Kerr, Kyle Korver and Jason Kapono.
“I think he’ll be a really good pro, but not great,” said a Western Conference executive, who would not be named because he is not permitted to talk about prospects. “He’ll be a guy who is a better Steve Kerr, a better Kyle Korver. A better Kapono. Both those guys can’t put the ball on the floor.”
Fredette
leads the nation in scoring this season at 28.8 points a game. He averaged more than 4 points a game more than the No. 2 scorer, Marshon Brooks of Providence.
But Fredette’s approach to defense is a cause for concern, N.B.A. personnel said, because he appears to put in little effort so he can stay out of foul trouble and conserve energy for offense.
Dave Rice, a B.Y.U. assistant, said some of Fredette’s defensive deficiencies were by design.
“A lot of that is really on us,” Rice said. “We expect so much of him on the offensive end. We can’t afford to have him in foul trouble. He’s a much, much better defensive player than he’s given credit for. A lot of that is part of our game plan.”
An Eastern Conference personnel director said that much of Fredette’s success in the N.B.A. could be predicated by what team he ends up on. He might flourish in a system like those of the
Knicks, the
Phoenix Suns or the Golden State Warriors, where the emphasis is on offense and scoring. A team like the
San Antonio Spurs would likely not be as good a fit.
“I think he will translate fine as a pure shooter,” the personnel director said. He added: “He will need to go to a team that is either stacked with good defenders or a team that doesn’t emphasize defense. For as sharp a shooter as he is, he’s just as bad of a defender.”
Fredette declared for the
N.B.A. draft last year and worked out for four teams before deciding to return for his senior year. He was projected as a fringe first-round pick and may have improved his stock to where he will likely be selected in the middle of the first round.
The N.B.A. personnel said they expected the
Utah Jazz, which should pick around No. 12, to feel pressure to draft Fredette. If it does not, few expect him to slip lower than No. 20.
The B.Y.U. strength coach, Justin McClure, said he expected Fredette to test well in the physical drills. He said Fredette has a vertical jump of 36 inches, can bench-press 265 pounds and should be able to lift 185 pounds 9 or 10 times.
“I think he surprised people with that,” McClure said. “He’s a lot quicker and more agile than people give him credit for.”
Fredette said he was pleased with his decision to return to B.Y.U., which has likely made him millions of dollars because of his improved draft status. He has stressed all season that B.Y.U.’s success has been his main focus.
“It was definitely a tough decision, but it’s what I expected and what I wanted to do and what I needed to do to get this type of hype leading into this tournament and later on in my career for the draft,” Fredette said.
Fredette cringed a bit at a comparison to the former Gonzaga forward Adam Morrison, who was perhaps the last scorer this dominant in college basketball. Morrison was the third overall pick in the 2006 draft, by the
Charlotte Bobcats, but has been with three teams and was waived by the
Washington Wizards last October.
Fredette also said he thought he was “a pretty good defender.”
“I don’t think people give me as much credit as maybe I deserve on the defensive end because I do play well on the offensive end,” he said.
Florida’s coaches need no reminder of that. Fredette scored 37 points against the Gators last year in B.Y.U.’s double-overtime N.C.A.A. tournament victory. The Florida assistant Larry Shyatt said that when watching film of Fredette
score 52 points against New Mexico this month, Maravich’s name came up.
Shyatt said there was no blueprint for guarding Fredette. “They could sell it at Walgreens, I’m not buying it,” he said.
Florida Coach Billy Donovan said Fredette’s biggest questions in the N.B.A. would come in the nuances of defense, as he said there was no question his shooting would translate.
“Can he play in pick-and-roll defensively?” Donovan said. “Can he get over screens and keep people in front? I think he’s got good enough size and good enough speed. I think that’s going to be the biggest question mark.”
Jonathan Abrams contributed reporting from New York.
