John Hollinger Thinks Conley May Opt Out

[Handlogten's Heros]

Mike is going to make a lot of people look really silly next year. The dude is still really good. If you can secure him as a long term backup PG after this coming season, you absolutely do it. And if doing so happens to also give you extra financial breathing room for 20/21, that’s just free money.

He makes the haters look dumb when he has a couple good games but he struggled this year. Those saying he will be waaaaaay better over the whole season aren’t really making evidence based decisions. They may end up being right which would be great... but more likely than not it will be a mixed bag again.

 

[idiot]

I’m getting interested in the idea of Horford + minor haul of assets + improved financial flexibility this offseason + improved defense instead of.... Conley.

What's your best, most realistic scenario for this? I think my eyes glazed over from earlier on this thread trying to imagine why we'd want Horford's contract for several more years and how Horford would fit as a PF, in addition to backup C. Maybe I was too dismissive then (though I'm still struggling to see these working out as well as you see them, apparently).

I'm still skeptical that Philly's as eager to send us Horford + goodies as the earlier discussion seemed to be suggesting, particularly since all the talk about how Conley would help the Sixers seems to come from Jazz fans rather than Philly fans. But, for the sake of discussion, what do you see as the best trade that Philly could be persuaded to make?

 

[NAOS]

What's your best, most realistic scenario for this? I think my eyes glazed over from earlier on this thread trying to imagine why we'd want Horford's contract for several more years and how Horford would fit as a PF, in addition to backup C. Maybe I was too dismissive then (though I'm still struggling to see these working out as well as you see them, apparently).

I'm still skeptical that Philly's as eager to send us Horford + goodies as the earlier discussion seemed to be suggesting, particularly since all the talk about how Conley would help the Sixers seems to come from Jazz fans rather than Philly fans. But, for the sake of discussion, what do you see as the best trade that Philly could be persuaded to make?

@Handlogten's Heros is definitely the guy to ask for the gritty details.

I don’t think Horford + Thybulle + a late first is out of the question. Their cap sheet is ****ing awful. And Conley fits pretty damn well with their needs.

 

[idiot]

@Handlogten's Heros is definitely the guy to ask for the gritty details.

I don’t think Horford + Thybulle + a late first is out of the question. Their cap sheet is ****ing awful. And Conley fits pretty damn well with their needs.

Thanks for responding.

But I'm sorry. I really don't consider this realistic. If it happens, great! I don't mind being proven wrong.

As much as I'm not convinced that Horford over Conley is a clear upgrade, Thybulle would probably tip the scales. And another 1st would certainly help, too. (As long as someone persuades me that taking on Horford's contract isn't going to hurt badly down the line.) But I think you're seeing through Jazz-colored glasses on this one.

 

[NAOS]

Thanks for responding.

But I'm sorry. I really don't consider this realistic. If it happens, great! I don't mind being proven wrong.

As much as I'm not convinced that Horford over Conley is a clear upgrade, Thybulle would probably tip the scales. And another 1st would certainly help, too. (As long as someone persuades me that taking on Horford's contract isn't going to hurt badly down the line.) But I think you're seeing through Jazz-colored glasses on this one.

You must’ve fainted when you saw what Utah gave up for Conley, then.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

@Handlogten's Heros is definitely the guy to ask for the gritty details.

I don’t think Horford + Thybulle + a late first is out of the question. Their cap sheet is ****ing awful. And Conley fits pretty damn well with their needs.

That’d be the minimum I’d do it for. Unless they want to move Ben or Joel they will need to put assets with Al to get off his money... they are like 12-22M in the tax already and have serious fit issues. Tough to sell owners on a 25-50M tax bill when you are a 5/6 seed in the East.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

You must’ve fainted when you saw what Utah gave up for Conley, then.

Also do we remember what Sixers paid to rent Jimmy and to overpay Tobias? People acting like a team would never pay a pick or young player to get a win now piece that fits... it also gets them off a bad contract.

I’d honestly want a little more than that. I’m not sure they are ready to go for that yet. It would be a potentially bad deal for us one year from now... but would put us in the tax for one year and then we’d be okay. We’d be able to avoid it if we make some other maneuvers but we don’t operate that way so we’d likely view ourselves as stuck. I just laugh at what the heat can do... they got off of so much ****** money this season and some how came out with Iggy. I think all they gave up was busted *** Winslow. Say you get a first, a second, and one of their young guys... wait a year and if it’s bad can you get off of ALS money with the first? Maybe. I’d want light protections on the pick so maybe by then it’s a late lotto pick. I don’t see a lot of teams giving them both:

1-salary relief they desperately need.
2- a player that fits what they need.

There is the rumored Sacramento deal with Buddy but theyd still have a cash crunch and still need someone that can create a shot off the dribble. They’d likely have to put an asset in that deal too.

If we retain JC and use the MLE on a good big we will end up in a similar cash crunch as we would if we took Al... you just likely get a worse player but don’t have any other assets to show for it. You’d be without Mikes services but we were able to make due pretty damn well.

The alternative is roll it forward... get a cheap big and hope it works... and end of the year you are in great shape with the cap but really can’t add anything meaningful. We likely need to pay the tax if we want to be a big boy contender. Problem is the goal may be to be a cute story contender... that remains profitable.

 

[NAOS]

The alternative is roll it forward... get a cheap big and hope it works... and end of the year you are in great shape with the cap but really can’t add anything meaningful. We likely need to pay the tax if we want to be a big boy contender. Problem is the goal may be to be a cute story contender... that remains profitable.

I’m not sure how many JFCers realize how stuck we are. Even if you think Mike is gonna be better next year—there’s no way you think he’s gonna be THAT piece.

If I were running things, I’d pivot away so fast.... get back to defense and let it ride on that strength.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I’m not sure how many JFCers realize how stuck we are. Even if you think Mike is gonna be better next year—there’s no way you think he’s gonna be THAT piece.

If I were running things, I’d pivot away so fast.... get back to defense and let it ride on that strength.

And get something that adds value beyond this year. DL will die in this hill though.

 

[416Klawzz]

Mike Conley is up there with the biggest flops/ mistakes of our franchise history.

How does DL still have a job?

 

[latin jazz]

It’s about constructing a team to compete for a title over the next 6-10 years. Not next year. When we have no shot anyway.

Not really. You can't foresee what's gonna happen in 4 years, let alone 10. Title windows last much less in today's NBA. Long gone are the days of slowly bulding your team around a superstar like Duncan, Dirk, Wade, Kobe, etc. If you are a small market team, it's more likely a superstar will stay until the end of his second contract (or force his way out before it).

If you have a small window, you must take a crack at it (see Toronto). Even the freaking Lakers. They 've done everything wrong the last few years but they get AD and suddenly the go from non-playoff team to winning the title. That's how quickly the landscape changes.

On the other hand, see Boston & Philly. Both hoarding assets for the next big move: they fail to pull the trigger (Kawhi) or made horrendous moves and suddenly their chances are not as obvious.

My take is that our title window with this group is the next 2 years (maybe 3). We have an All-NBA Center in his prime, a young superstar, a great third option (Bogie), good role players around them (Joe, Royce, Mike). Great scorer from the bench (JC if he stays). We are on par with Denver, Clippers and perhaps a bit ahead of Dallas and OKC. With a healthy Bogey (or even without him but at least one decent defender), we could have reached the Conf Finals: then you are one AD twisted ankle away from reaching the Finals.

Our top 6-7 players are very good. The FO just screwed up the bench. If we hit home runs with the MLE and the draft, we are right back a it. The margin of error is thinner due to our lack of assets, but I say, go for it now and if it doesn't work, hit a rebuild while Rudy is still in his prime. Don't plan for the next 10 years because Rudy, DM, the coaching staff or even the FO might not be here that long (remember, 10 years ago we had DWill, Haywood, Kirilenko , Okur, Raja Bell, etc on the roster and Jerry was still our coach)

 

[idiot]

Here are some results from last year's season that are sure to change nobody's mind in the Conley discussion.

With the games/percentages up to the hiatus (since the Bubble had too much funny business going on), I charted the outcomes of Jazz games (winning/losing margin) against the opponents' season winning percentage. I did that with both Conley playing and without him playing.

View attachment 9831

The result? Virtually no difference. You'll see that the trend line for both crosses 0 at almost precisely the same location on both graphs. (The trend lines basically show how much the Jazz should have been expected to win or lose by versus an opponent with any particular winning %.)

In other words, once you factor in opponent strength, the Jazz accomplished almost precisely the same thing with or without Conley. I ran a few more less interesting calculations along these lines, as well, but they all pointed to the same thing; in fact, all the with-vs-without-Conley calculations were almost eerily close . The Jazz's odds of winning last year were essentially the same with or without Conley.