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Keeping Lauri seems increasingly pointless

Schrödinger's Gerbil said:
Basing the success of one's strategy on getting lucky may work for dance hall lotharios, but it's not necessarily the most reliable strategy for building a winning basketball team.

I infer from Houston's action that they were sick of losing, didn't see winning in their near future with the current crop of players or a strategy of continuing to speculate in the lottery ad infinitum, and decided to pivot to bring capable veterans on board, notwithstanding the criticism they initially took for it.
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Exactly. Tanking sucks because its based so much on luck. We agree.
 
karl malone said:
No reason to force anything. Aside from tanking.

As long as Lauri doesn't interfere with that, you let him recoup his value if there isn't a good offer available right now. Which there doesn't appear to be.

But if we're going to tank via roster construction like it sounds, & appear to have already started doing, I do think at least one of Lauri or Kessler will need to be traded. And we may still have to trade Collins on top of that depending on how our young core looks.

Personally, I'd prefer to recoup LM's trade value vs committing significant long-term money to Kessler as his skillset is easier to replace & his trade value is likely much closer to it's peak.

Also, the removal of his skillset may actually have as much or possibly even more of an impact on our ability to organically tank.

Maybe we can get away with keeping both by just trading Collins & banking on our young core to struggle out of the gate. But I'm not sure it's worth risking missing out on finding a potential 2nd star to pair with Bailey. Especially not in such a loaded draft class when we're a single season away from retaining our draft pick entirely.

Ideally, a great offer comes in for Lauri. But if not, I hope we don't move him just for the sake of it unless it's completely unavoidable in order to preserve a top 8 pick for next year.
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Good post. Does Austin want to keep Lauri or not? If the plan is to tank again next season, which I think we could do if we move Collins, would Lauri be OK with that? He has said he loves Utah, but does he like it so much that he would want to do it? Maybe Austin tells him it’ll be one more year before we pivot and hit the gas. Or maybe he doesn’t say anything, just keeps him. Or he trades him. I would trade Lauri if we can’t move Collins this offseason. Otherwise, I’d keep him, and if he threatens the tank, then I’d trade him before the trade deadline. It seems Lauri is in his home country now, apparently getting ready for the EuroBasket tournament.

Jazz Lead on X: "Lauri Markkanen making 24 pull-up 3-pointers in a row https://t.co/YtOMILwLU8" / X
 
underdog said:
Good post. Does Austin want to keep Lauri or not? If the plan is to tank again next season, which I think we could do if we move Collins, would Lauri be OK with that? He has said he loves Utah, but does he like it so much that he would want to do it? Maybe Austin tells him it’ll be one more year before we pivot and hit the gas. Or maybe he doesn’t say anything, just keeps him. Or he trades him. I would trade Lauri if we can’t move Collins this offseason. Otherwise, I’d keep him, and if he threatens the tank, then I’d trade him before the trade deadline. It seems Lauri is in his home country now, apparently getting ready for the EuroBasket tournament.

Jazz Lead on X: "Lauri Markkanen making 24 pull-up 3-pointers in a row https://t.co/YtOMILwLU8" / X
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I think AA wants to do whatever is best for the long-term future of the team & keeping Lauri could be the right move if we are able to tank with him still on the roster without getting fined again. Depending on how things play out. My guess is that our main priorities this season are:

(Non negotiable)
1. Top 8 pick
2. Develop young core via playing time
3. Acceptable basketball (ball movement/defense/hustle/etc)
(Fluid)
4. Trade/rehab value/potentially retain Lauri
5. Trade/extend Kessler

As far as Lauri being on board with another year of tanking, especially if we plan to start trying to seriously compete the following year (which I believe is the plan), I don't think he would have signed without being okay with it. I think he likes it in Utah, sees the vision, & wants to be here when it comes to fruition.

Whether that will be in the best interest of the team is the question. I think it will depend on: A) does he threaten the tank? B) can we tank with him & Kessler both on the team? C) who do we value more Lauri vs Kessler on their respective contracts? & D) does it disrupt the development of our young core by limiting minutes/touches?

I do question whether we'll be able to tank with both of them (& maybe even just one of them) as I'm expecting major improvements/contributions from our recent draft picks. I just think Lauri's value is too low for them to be able to find an acceptable offer right now but ultimately it will likely come down to if they can tank with him/Kessler & who they value more if not.

I'm not sure either are in the long-term plan but personally I would prioritize Lauri between the two as he has the rarer skillset, could be a great 2nd/3rd star for a few years depending on who we draft assuming we're close to being ready to compete, & has a contact that won't interfere with extending our potential stars when the time comes (as far as I know).

But I think it's all fluid right now & depends on a lot of factors. Including what's on the table for him, what a Kessler extension would look like, & how they asses the development of the young guys. And whether they think he can recoup trade value/fit long-term. Both of which I see as very possible.

Will be interesting to see how everything plays out.
 
The Thriller said:
I agree, it does seem pointless. We should’ve gutted this team years ago. Keeping sexton, Clarkson, and Lauri on this team for years has been a complete waste… for all parties. I feel bad for these guys. And it hasn’t done us any good. We’ve prolonged our rebuild by years because our management held onto veterans for some odd reason.
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The FO knows 2023 and 2024 were weak draft classes (except Wemby), so it was pointless to tank and make the fanbase go through it.

They also used that time to accumulate assets (which didn't materialised in the end due to a number of factors, the effect of the new cba being one).

It’s really the 2025 and 2026 draft classes that they were gunning for, and we’re seeing the fruit of that right now with Ace and potentially another franchise changing player next year.
 
The Midnight said:
The FO knows 2023 and 2024 were weak draft classes (except Wemby), so it was pointless to tank and make the fanbase go through it.

They also used that time to accumulate assets (which didn't materialised in the end due to a number of factors, the effect of the new cba being one).

It’s really the 2025 and 2026 draft classes that they were gunning for, and we’re seeing the fruit of that right now with Ace and potentially another franchise changing player next year.
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The cope is super strong.

You're giving Ainge WAY too much credit. He's a confused old man set in his ways, not some 4D chess playing galaxy brain.
 
Utah has/had a winning tradition & is/was a proud franchise. I don't believe they were willing to openly tank for 4 straight years so I believe that they looked at the 2023 & 2024 draft classes vs the 2025 & 2026 draft classes as well as the protections on our draft pick owed to OKC & made a conscious decision to soft tank for 2 years, prioritizing potential role players/complimentary starters in the draft, as well as flippable trade assets, while waiting for 25/26 to go after their potential superstars.

It makes sense logically & contractually as you would expect the superstars to come in ready to contribute just as the 2nd/3rd year guys are developing. Also allows you to carry a max contract like Lauri or use the space for asset allocation while your core is still on their rookie contracts.

Not saying it was necessarily the right move but DA wasn't just out here winging it.
 
Lauri currently leads the league amongst active players in number of games played (450) without ever making the playoffs.

Here is the current list in case anyone is interested:
Markkanen 450
Miles Bridges 424
Collin Sexton 407
Keldon Johnson 370
Deni Avdija 359
Christian Wood 339
Dennis Smith Jr 326
KJ Martin 309
Devin Vassell 303
Tre Jones 297
Corey Kispert 292
Lonzo Ball 287
 
Terrible thread and terrible takes in here all around.

Lauri is a perfect #2 and is just barely hitting his prime and will be there many more years. You don't trade away that kind of talent who wants to be in Utah unless someone is sending over the farm and that isn't happening.
 
karl malone said:
Whether that will be in the best interest of the team is the question. I think it will depend on:
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I think what it depends on most of all is lottery luck.
 
Lauri is as good as gone. Playing with mostly rookie deal guys will only keep his asset value sinking. There's no point for now to keep him. I expect two first rounders and salary fillers as teams will know this exact thing. Maybe Jazz will get someone decent young guy in a trade as well, and should. But not bargaining it to death. It's all about big picture for Jazz now.
 
Ron Mexico said:
Terrible thread and terrible takes in here all around.

Lauri is a perfect #2 and is just barely hitting his prime and will be there many more years. You don't trade away that kind of talent who wants to be in Utah unless someone is sending over the farm and that isn't happening.
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Lauri is a seven footer with very extensive injury history, he's not going to be good in 4 years when Hendricks and Ace and their 2026 pick are hopefully good.
 
Ron Mexico said:
Stongly disagree. He'll still be good then. Plus we don't even know if those guys are anything yet.
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1. He probably won't be mobile enough to defend in the postseason at 32, I would be pretty shocked if he was effective in a postseason setting at 32.
2. Yes, they could all be bad... And then we're even further away...
 
Lauri won't be traded for nothing... but we really need to end top 3 in the draft
 
Lauri has to show a pulse on defense to start the year or he's going to have zero trade value based on what we've seen this year. Teams are reacting to OKC winning the title by completely deprioritizing bad defenders.
 
Seeing as we’re clearly gunning for top 5 in 2026, it may be worth keeping him in the event we need to wheel and deal during draft season and include him in a trade package then.

As we just saw you never know who’s going to be picking 1-3.
 
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