Knight and Freshmen Leading Teams to Final 4

[vslice02]

Sometimes in play-offs, when you get into defensive type of games, with refs calling it tight, you end up with lower shooting %. You need to find a way to win, and Knight did that.

Agree, and one thing we know about Knight, he's not afraid to take big shots in big situations and you can't say that about every player. That's something we saw with Deron against Arizona in the 2005 regional final. You have to like players who have the onions to want to be in those situations - rather than shrinking from them.

 

[somebody]

Sometimes in play-offs, when you get into defensive type of games, with refs calling it tight, you end up with lower shooting %.

But apparently not in the case of Love, Oden, and Melo, who all shot above their regular season averages. And you posted TJ Ford's sophomore numbers.

I can say with 100% certainty that without Knight we [Kentucky] don't get out of the first round.

You mean the game where Knight went something like 1 of 9, and then made the winning layup? This is precisely the sort of praise being heaped on Knight that makes me very hesitant about the Jazz picking him 3rd.

 

[Borat]

But apparently not in the case of Love, Oden, and Melo, who all shot above their regular season averages. And you posted TJ Ford's sophomore numbers.

True, but then again Dirk's example still stands. You are right about Ford. I did find that Deng was a freshman when he made final 4, but he did score about half a point less than Reddick. Knight is in good company still.

You mean the game where Knight went something like 1 of 9, and then made the winning layup? This is precisely the sort of praise being heaped on Knight that makes me very hesitant about the Jazz picking him 3rd.

Agree that it is a concern, but these were poor shooting, low scoring games, and Knight put enough points to win and scored when the team had to score. Like Dirk. Plus the fact his regular season FG% was good in the toughest conference in NCAA is encouraging.

 

[somebody]

When Dirk went 1-11 or whatever it was in the first half, I would argue that he was not leading his team, and that if not for Jason Terry shooting the lights out and several other players playing extremely well that they would have lost. (Dirk said this himself in the post-game). But overall, Dirk did lead in the playoffs. He shot only a slightly lower percentage in the playoffs than he did in the regular season (49% to 51%) and he shot much better from beyond the arc (51% to 39%). Contrast that with Knight shooting 32% in the tourney and 42% in the regular season, and 33% from 3 in the tourney and 37% in the regular season.

Luol Deng shot 54.2% in the tourney and 47.5% in the regular season.
jj redick shot 40.5% in his freshman tourney and 41.3% in the regular season. Less, but not by much.

It would be interesting to me if you could find a good player in the NBA who, in their freshman year, had a 10% drop-off from their regular season average to their tourney average. Of the people you have mentioned so far, only Redick has shot less (and only .8 percent less).

It is becoming less and less likely that the drop-off in Knight's performance was the typical result of the circumstances of a competitive environment (in which most players actually play better) and instead is becoming more and more likely that he simply ended his season on a fizzle.

 

[Borat]

When Dirk went 1-11 or whatever it was in the first half, I would argue that he was not leading his team, and that if not for Jason Terry shooting the lights out and several other players playing extremely well that they would have lost. (Dirk said this himself in the post-game). But overall, Dirk did lead in the playoffs. He shot only a slightly lower percentage in the playoffs than he did in the regular season (49% to 51%) and he shot much better from beyond the arc (51% to 39%). Contrast that with Knight shooting 32% in the tourney and 42% in the regular season, and 33% from 3 in the tourney and 37% in the regular season.

Luol Deng shot 54.2% in the tourney and 47.5% in the regular season.
jj redick shot 40.5% in his freshman tourney and 41.3% in the regular season. Less, but not by much.

It would be interesting to me if you could find a good player in the NBA who, in their freshman year, had a 10% drop-off from their regular season average to their tourney average. Of the people you have mentioned so far, only Redick has shot less (and only .8 percent less).

It is becoming less and less likely that the drop-off in Knight's performance was the typical result of the circumstances of a competitive environment (in which most players actually play better) and instead is becoming more and more likely that he simply ended his season on a fizzle.

I know D Rose had quite a bit of a drop off in shooting in first round and finals of the play-offs in NBA this year, yet he was still far and away the best player on the team. But, I would agree, the fact Knight shot poor in tourney is a concern.

 

[somebody]

I'm not opposed to taking Knight. He shot Deron William's career average, so clearly there's much more to a player's game than percentages. I have not seen Knight play and I've heard mostly good things. It's just that I'm not thrilled about taking a player at 3 who almost certainly would not be taken at 4, or maybe even at 5 or 6. On the other hand, there is very good chance that Kanter would be taken at 4.

If the Jazz like what they see from Knight, then I hope they find a way to trade down for him.

 

[Dr. Jones]

But apparently not in the case of Love, Oden, and Melo, who all shot above their regular season averages. And you posted TJ Ford's sophomore numbers.


You mean the game where Knight went something like 1 of 9, and then made the winning layup? This is precisely the sort of praise being heaped on Knight that makes me very hesitant about the Jazz picking him 3rd.

You seriously think the only thing Knight did well in that game was making the final shot? I certainly wasn't saying that ..

 

[Borat]

I'm not opposed to taking Knight. He shot Deron William's career average, so clearly there's much more to a player's game than percentages. I have not seen Knight play and I've heard mostly good things. It's just that I'm not thrilled about taking a player at 3 who almost certainly would not be taken at 4, or maybe even at 5 or 6. On the other hand, there is very good chance that Kanter would be taken at 4.

If the Jazz like what they see from Knight, then I hope they find a way to trade down for him.

The fact Knight shot well below his solid regular season 44% in tourney is a concern, and that makes him a notch below top 2 guys in the draft: Irving and Williams. But, he did shoot well in regular season against top competition and found a way to lead his team to #3 rankings. His overall %, while not as good as in regular season, is still fairly decent for a PG. So, yeah, he is below top 2, but I think clearly #3. As far as trading down to get him, yes, if Cavs pick Irving 1st, he is unlikely to go #4, since the same team is picking at 4 and he plays the same position. But he would likely be gone by 5. That's only one spot we are talking about here. As far as Kanter, he might slide also, like Podz and Lampe did. I would not assume. I would pick the best guy at #3, and moved on. After Knight I feel there is quite a bit of a drop-off in this draft.