Last 10 Years Draft Choices Ranked

[idiot]

I’ve gone off and done something way too time consuming again. I’ve devised a ranking system for the 600 NBA draft choices over the past 10 years. It includes 3 basic elements, with the lower ranking better for each (1 is better than 600).

• “Cards Left on the Table”: How does this draft choice compare to the best player in the next five draft selections?
• “Value vs. Neighbors”: How does this player’s production compare to the average production of nearby draft selections (2 prior and 3 following for first rounders; 2 prior and 4 following for second rounders)?
• “Value vs. Expected”: Compares player’s production to a generalized expected-production curve at that point of the draft (based on the last 10 years)

Anyone trying to evaluate the Jazz (or any other team’s) choices or search for patterns that can be used for overachieving in the draft might find this worksheet helpful. Hopefully the Googlesheets functionality allows for sorting.

Spoiler: The Jazz drafted fairly average overall, probably slightly above average; though greatly aided by having the best draft choice among both centers and SGs (Rudy & Donovan).



EDIT: It looks like the sorting isn't available. Sorry. Anyone have a suggestion for how to make it available?

EDIT2: Maybe going to this link will work?

 

[idiot]

Best Drafted Centers:

Gobert, Jokic, Towns

Worst Drafted Centers:

Justin Patten, Jalen Smith, Mitch McGary



Best Drafted PFs:

Giannis, Sabonis, Siakam, Brandon Clarke

Worst Drafted PFs:

Thomas Robinson, Anthony Bennett, JaJuan Johnson



Best Drafted SFs:

J. Butler, Kawhi, Tatum, Middleton, Tobias Harris

Worst Drafted SFs:

Poku, Kevin Knox, Josh Jackson



Best Drafted SGs:

DM, Norman Powell, Clarkson

Worst Drafted SGs:

Jimmer, Dion Waiters, Malik Monk



Best Drafted PGs:

Lilliard, I. Thomas, Brogdon, Luka, Kyrie, Monte Morris

Worst Drated PGs:

Norris Cole, Killian Hayes, Michael Carter-Williams, Dennis Smith Jr., Fultz

 

[idiot]

Notes:

• This is not an evaluation of the best players. Instead, it evaluates how good the draft selection was, given the context surrounding it.
• Unfortunately, draft selections are noted in B-Ref by the team making the official selection (such as Gobert by Denver and Trey Burke by Minnesota). So I didn’t include the team that drafted because there are too many cases like this to allow for useful team-by-team comparison.
• All scores are based on B-Ref’s win shares, modified by position (since WS especially tends to rank centers high and wings poorly). So when you see Gobert or Mitchell high, for example, be assured that the adjustment by position has already been taken into account to equalize across all positions.
• High draft choices tend to be more prone to be ranked either high or low, because the stakes are so high. By contrast, late draft choices most often cluster toward the middle since usually little is gained or lost with these choices. Of course, relatively late choices that become All-NBA quality usually get the highest ranks.
• All scores are based on yearly averages of career totals since players have came into the league. Beware of high variability among young players (esp. rookies) that may moderate somewhat over time. Scores are thus also affected by injury (a quality player may get a relatively poor score if injured frequently).