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Likely Rebuild Timeline / Strategy

l Abach l

l Abach l

Well-Known Member
I've been thinking about Danny Ainge's actions to-date. It is clear that he attempted to his 2013 Celtics/Nets trade—sending star players away for future draft picks that would end up being lotto picks. It worked for Boston - trading washed, aging superstars like Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce to the Nets paid off - the Nets were cheeks (as everyone predicted). ending up in Tatum / Brown.

Key difference with Gobert and Donovan trades: Gobert and Mitchell are still very much in their primes, not past them.

Ainge bet on two things:
  1. Anthony Edwards not reaching his ceiling / potential
  2. Donovan Mitchell leaving Cleveland via free agency
In typical Jazz luck, neither of these have and will pan out. Edwards will likely sign a super-max and keep the Wolves as a 1-4 seed, and Don signed an extension, locking him up for the foreseeable future in a weaker eastern conference.

Ainge is seeing this - he's not an idiot. This has increased his pressure on Hardy / coaching staff to ramp up the forced tank. That maximizes our ability to end up with a top-4 superstar potential young talent.

I'm guessing the rebuild over next few years is the following-
  • Embrace full tank over next two seasons to secure two top-four draft picks.
  • Focus on player development to ensure our young guys today turn into solid role players
  • Maintain cap flexibility to acquire disgruntled superstars by 2026 season
By the 2026 season, the goal would be to have:
  • Two young, foundational high-ceiling / low-floor stars from high draft picks
  • A strong supporting cast of developed players
  • Lauri Markkanen still being in his prime
  • 1-2 disgruntled superstars via either free agency or us trading away the farm (future draft picks)
Thoughts?
 
There is no timeline at this stage. The Jazz have some young talent that looks to be rotational and they have some trade assets to go along with Lauri. However, they don’t have a perennial All Star they can build around. Almost no one’s role is set.

Where would Orlando’s rebuild be if they didn’t get Paolo? Where would the Spurs’ rebuild be if they didn’t get Wemby? Jazz need to draft at the top of the lottery, maybe more than once. This is going to be long, hard climb.

Also, Rudy and Mike Conley maybe showing some signs of age in Minnesota. The Twolves trade for Randle might not pan out. Hence, the Twolves could be vulnerable, but it’ll take a few years to play out.

Donovan extended with Cleveland, but only for two years. So that kicks the can a bit down the road.

The Lakers ‘27 pick could have value.
 
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It all depends on if there is a good trade out there. You make a trade for a top 20 guy, you get Flagg, you are in business.

If you get some bad luck and end up with a Ron Harper, you are probably tanking for at least another year and being awful again.
 
I'm resigned to it being 2 tank seasons unfortunately. Hopefully a miracle happens next offseason but not very optimistic. Ainge pulled off miracles in Boston but Utah is just another animal.

Initially thought they could get lucky draft, someone like Flagg and use their warchest to bring in another star such as Giannis (or whoever). Unfortunately I don't think those Cle/Minn picks are going to have much value. The Bucks have already traded all their picks so they can't tank unless a team like Houston trades them the Phoenix unprotected FRPs. The Jazz have a warchest but can't compete with OKC or Houston in terms of pick quality or high potential rookie contract players to send back in a deal for a star.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
I also dont think Ainge "bet" on those two things. I think he just got the best possible package he could at the time.
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The picks we received in those two trades were never going to be top-5 picks to begin with. Teams no longer do complete teardowns when they owe picks and swaps in consecutive years. If the pick the Jazz owed to OKC was unprotected, I assure you the Jazz wouldn't be 0-5. There's no logic in helping another team get a franchise player by losing.

Add to that the reality that teams don't go all-out during regular season any more and no one is trying to win 73 games at all costs, and you have a league in which it's not that hard to win 30-35 games. Heaven knows we found that out the last two seasons. The really bad teams are teams that both set up that way in the offseason and actively make decisions during the season to that end. Like what we're witnessing in SLC right now.

Even if Mitchell bolted in free agency or made enough of a stink to force a trade to a place where he would extend, the Cavs current roster boosted by whatever DM replacement would win 30 games and we'd have another 10th pick we don't need. There would be 0 incentive for the Cavs to lose 65 games and give us a number 1 pick.

All these Wolves and Cavs picks and swaps needed to be traded ASAP, before their value completely dissipates. It doesn't even matter if it's a trade for a disgruntled star any more.
 
JimLes said:
The picks we received in those two trades were never going to be top-5 picks to begin with. Teams no longer do complete teardowns when they owe picks and swaps in consecutive years. If the pick the Jazz owed to OKC was unprotected, I assure you the Jazz wouldn't be 0-5. There's no logic in helping another team get a franchise player by losing.

Add to that the reality that teams don't go all-out during regular season any more and no one is trying to win 73 games at all costs, and you have a league in which it's not that hard to win 30-35 games. Heaven knows we found that out the last two seasons. The really bad teams are teams that both set up that way in the offseason and actively make decisions during the season to that end. Like what we're witnessing in SLC right now.

Even if Mitchell bolted in free agency or made enough of a stink to force a trade to a place where he would extend, the Cavs current roster boosted by whatever DM replacement would win 30 games and we'd have another 10th pick we don't need. There would be 0 incentive for the Cavs to lose 65 games and give us a number 1 pick.

All these Wolves and Cavs picks and swaps needed to be traded ASAP, before their value completely dissipates. It doesn't even matter if it's a trade for a disgruntled star any more.
Click to expand...
Picks are still picks. They might not be great lotto tickets, but all-star are still picked every few years in the late teens-twenties.
 
Jazz need to take swings on upside with all their picks. They have plenty of rotation guys at this point, or they can find them. Jazz need to chase after high-ceiling players who improve upon what they currently have. They can afford to whiff on half of their picks or more, but they can't afford not to take big swings.
 
If you are going to do a timeline with Ainge, as if he has a plan, you have to back two years and explain why we waited until year 3 to tank. It makes no sense to have two years of being crappy but not crappy enough and then decide to do a real tank. I am fine with tanking, even if it is a 2 year tank. We are already on year 3.
 
I've been pretty consistent in my thinking that we tank for the 2026 draft as well. We are going to have the same motivations next Summer that we did this summer as far as elite talent in the draft and avoiding conveying the pick to OKC.

I think Ainge originally thought a star was going to become available and so he tried to keep some NBA guys on the roster that we could add a star to. We currently look so bad that even if Giannis becomes available, I can't imagine we get in on it.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I've been pretty consistent in my thinking that we tank for the 2026 draft as well. We are going to have the same motivations next Summer that we did this summer as far as elite talent in the draft and avoiding conveying the pick to OKC.

I think Ainge originally thought a star was going to become available and so he tried to keep some NBA guys on the roster that we could add a star to. We currently look so bad that even if Giannis becomes available, I can't imagine we get in on it.
Click to expand...

It's pretty hard to flip the switch and become a playoff team in the West in the first place. It doesn't feel like the West is getting any easier, and even through trade star players have some say about where they're going. We've failed to acquire "that guy" two off seasons in a row and I also don't see that becoming easier as we'll be one of the worst in the league. We can't really choose to be a winner, going that route is extremely difficult and there might not even be a star available.

I think you're right about tanking for 26, something drastic would have to change.
 
l Abach l said:
I've been thinking about Danny Ainge's actions to-date. It is clear that he attempted to his 2013 Celtics/Nets trade—sending star players away for future draft picks that would end up being lotto picks. It worked for Boston - trading washed, aging superstars like Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce to the Nets paid off - the Nets were cheeks (as everyone predicted). ending up in Tatum / Brown.

Key difference with Gobert and Donovan trades: Gobert and Mitchell are still very much in their primes, not past them.

Ainge bet on two things:
  1. Anthony Edwards not reaching his ceiling / potential
  2. Donovan Mitchell leaving Cleveland via free agency
In typical Jazz luck, neither of these have and will pan out. Edwards will likely sign a super-max and keep the Wolves as a 1-4 seed, and Don signed an extension, locking him up for the foreseeable future in a weaker eastern conference.

Ainge is seeing this - he's not an idiot. This has increased his pressure on Hardy / coaching staff to ramp up the forced tank. That maximizes our ability to end up with a top-4 superstar potential young talent.

I'm guessing the rebuild over next few years is the following-
  • Embrace full tank over next two seasons to secure two top-four draft picks.
  • Focus on player development to ensure our young guys today turn into solid role players
  • Maintain cap flexibility to acquire disgruntled superstars by 2026 season
By the 2026 season, the goal would be to have:
  • Two young, foundational high-ceiling / low-floor stars from high draft picks
  • A strong supporting cast of developed players
  • Lauri Markkanen still being in his prime
  • 1-2 disgruntled superstars via either free agency or us trading away the farm (future draft picks)
Thoughts?
Click to expand...
I dont think Ainge has had any problem with the concept of tanking the past two years, but the real plug stopping him from doing so has been Ryan Smith who acts more like a superfan than a cold calculative business-first type of NBA owner. I think DA actually did try to go the route Smith wanted him to go (big game hunting), but the right opportunities just werent there.

For the plan going forward.. I'm not sure they have their mind set on exactly how it should go. What I do know though is there is no "secuing top 4" in existence, as top 5 is the absolute best draft position you can "secure".
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Picks are still picks. They might not be great lotto tickets, but all-star are still picked every few years in the late teens-twenties.
Click to expand...
We've had almost a two-digit number of first round picks the past 2 years and a bit. How many All-Stars do you figure we've picked looking at our current roster?
 
HermanG said:
I dont think Ainge has had any problem with the concept of tanking the past two years, but the real plug stopping him from doing so has been Ryan Smith who acts more like a superfan than a cold calculative business-first type of NBA owner. I think DA actually did try to go the route Smith wanted him to go (big game hunting), but the right opportunities just werent there.
Click to expand...

The right opportunities were there and are there, constantly. Stars get traded and have been traded every year, including this one. Aside from maybe 4-5 players in the league, everyone has a price. We've also seen what that price has been lately. The Jazz have the assets to outbid all but maybe two teams, and are located in a place players seem to hate passionately, so it's not like the organization are not aware that they'd have to overpay.

We've got like ten FRPs for the rest of this decade. If it takes seven of those to get Giannis, just ****ing do it.
 
Two years ago, we should of spent picks to move up to get Bilal. But that was still a guess. The road to rebuild is painful and not always magical.
 
JimLes said:
The right opportunities were there and are there, constantly. Stars get traded and have been traded every year, including this one. Aside from maybe 4-5 players in the league, everyone has a price. We've also seen what that price has been lately. The Jazz have the assets to outbid all but maybe two teams, and are located in a place players seem to hate passionately, so it's not like the organization are not aware that they'd have to overpay.

We've got like ten FRPs for the rest of this decade. If it takes seven of those to get Giannis, just ****ing do it.
Click to expand...

I don't agree with you on this, but it's important to distinguish a top 30 player star vs a top 10 player superstar.

Top 30 players are likely always going to be available, but even then to get one requires a very high price. We would have needed to include 5 picks to outbid New York for Bridges.

Top 10 players are not available for any price unless they are asking out or the franchise is going in to rebuild.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
I also dont think Ainge "bet" on those two things. I think he just got the best possible package he could at the time.
Click to expand...
I’m more and more convinced Ainge isn’t the “5 year plan” type. He is opportunistic and goes in a general direction as opportunities present themselves. I’d say we plan to be ****** for a year and see what happens in the lotto. After that we could be ****** again or he may see enough promise and get an opportunity to put the foot on the gas. For good or bad I don’t think there is a rigid disciplined 3-4 year plan. Every 12 months or so they look at where they are and have a few options to pursue.

I agree he didn’t bet on one particular thing happening. He bet on uncertainty and just general chaos that can happen.

I think right now I am as comfortable as I have been in the DA era at understanding the current plan and not makes sense. It may not work… that’s okay. We are giving ourselves a chance to get the kind of luck we need in multiple ways.
 
JimLes said:
The right opportunities were there and are there, constantly. Stars get traded and have been traded every year, including this one. Aside from maybe 4-5 players in the league, everyone has a price. We've also seen what that price has been lately. The Jazz have the assets to outbid all but maybe two teams, and are located in a place players seem to hate passionately, so it's not like the organization are not aware that they'd have to overpay.

We've got like ten FRPs for the rest of this decade. If it takes seven of those to get Giannis, just ****ing do it.
Click to expand...
That may be reality in NBA2K but in the real world most star players are in teams who are trying to win, and those teams dont trade good players in exchange for draft picks unless they first decide to enter a rebuild or the star asks out.

This is not even close to being a matter of debate.
 
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