Making Lauri better

[jazznik]

It is apparent that the Jazz want to move forward with Lauri being one of the core players to build around. And we know that the impact that Lauri has on the game is highly dependent on what kind of players he is surrounded with. So I dived in the last season lineups to see who Lauri thrived with and which players were a bad fit. That's what I found:

1. Pretty much all of his best 2 and 3-players lineups included Olynyk or Dunn. A few where it was not the case where the ones when Lauri played with Fontecchio.
2. The lineups where Lauri played with Collins, Kessler or (especially!) Hendricks were really bad. Sure, playing with Kessler or Hendricks improved the defense but the offensive rating simply plummeted.
3. Markkanen played markedly better with Clarkson than with Sexton or Keyonte. For example, the Markkanen - Sexton pairing, while being very good on offense gave up an ungodly amount of points defensively. Also, his pairing with THT was surprisingly better than with any other guard not named Dunn.

The takeaways: it looks that Lauri really thrives playing with players who are big, mobile, good passers and playmakers and, preferably, have a reliable 3-pont shot creating spacing for Lauri's drives. His efficiency plummets when he has to play with good defensive players who are not great passers and not moving a lot on offense (Kessler, Hendricks). Also, Lauri is much, much more effective when he plays with veterans (although, to be fair, everybody struggled playing with Brice last season). The Jazz do not need more defense around Lauri: they just need experienced, mobile passers with size.

Going forward, ideal players to surround Lauri with would be someone like Sabonis, Draymond, LeBron, Ben Simmons... or, even, Ingram. For guards it would be someone like Haliburton, Booker, Giddey. Unfortunately, it looks like Kessler, Hendricks, Collins and Sexton do not fit that well with Markkanen. Intriguingly, another player who could theoretically fit with Lauri like a glove would be Filipowski. The Jazz should REALLY try playing him alongside Lauri this season to see if there is a lot of potential in there.

On the bright note for tankers, Lauri almost certainly would be way less impactful this season: all of his best pairings are gone so he will be forced to play either with non-passing bigs or inexperienced young players, and he has struggled mightily with both. Also, it would really benefit the tank if Clarkson is stuck on the bench: he is the only guard who will make Lauri better.

 

[HermanG]

Just to clarify, are you looking at Lauri's actual personal stats in those lineups or the ratings of those lineups?

 

[jazznik]

Just to clarify, are you looking at Lauri's actual personal stats in those lineups or the ratings of those lineups?

I was looking mostly at the net rating, as well as offensive and defensive ratings. But I think that his personal stats would correlate really highly with them. For example, Kessler and Hendricks make the offense really stagnant and Lauri struggles in it. He also struggles without the spacing that was previously created by Olynyk and Simone: Collins and Kessler cannot create it as well, while the shot of Hendricks is not being respected yet (and he moves way, way less than Fontecchio).

It is kind of wild how much Olynyk, Fontecchio and Dunn complemented not just Lauri but pretty much every teammate and that the Jazz got rid of them all. Nine out of ten best 2-players lineups by the net rating (mins>100) included one of them. We have zero glue guys on this team now (besides, maybe, Juzang). Filipowski can became the one but he will make a lot of mistakes next season.

 

[jazznik]

Just to throw in some numbers. Here are the 2-player lineups with Lauri by net ratings from the nba.com.

Lauri-Olynyk +6.5
Lauri-Dunn +6.1
Lauri-Fontecchio +4.6

Lauri-THT +2.2
Lauri-Agbaji +1.4
Lauri-Clarkson +1.0

Lauri-George -0.4
Lauri-Sexton -0.6
Lauri-Kessler -0.7
Lauri-Collins -3.2
Lauri-Hendricks -5.9

 

[SoberasHotRod]

If you are just looking for the types of players then I would look at 2022/2023 vs 2023/2024. Last season was such a mess, I'm not sure that there's much to take away from it.

One pattern that I would expect is that Lauri is much better with a competent passer. I'm guessing that is part of the effect you see with Olynyk.

 

[jazznik]

If you are just looking for the types of players then I would look at 2022/2023 vs 2023/2024. Last season was such a mess, I'm not sure that there's much to take away from it.

One pattern that I would expect is that Lauri is much better with a competent passer. I'm guessing that is part of the effect you see with Olynyk.

...and Dunn. Interestingly, then when Olynyk and Fontecchio were gone, the net ratings of all pairings became worse (which is totally understandable, since the Jazz were losing a lot of games), but the efficiency of Lauri-Sexton and Lauri-Kessler plummeted in the depths of hell, with -8.4 and -20.9 (!), respectively. And Sexton and Kessler are, supposedly, two best players on the team aside from Lauri. I just don't think they are a good long-term fit with him.

The player who played the best with Lauri post All Star break was Collins, which makes total sense he is not great but at least experienced and has some offensive game, size and a little bit of passing and 3-point ability. He is the best of the worst.

 

[HermanG]

I was looking mostly at the net rating, as well as offensive and defensive ratings. But I think that his personal stats would correlate really highly with them. For example, Kessler and Hendricks make the offense really stagnant and Lauri struggles in it. He also struggles without the spacing that was previously created by Olynyk and Simone: Collins and Kessler cannot create it as well, while the shot of Hendricks is not being respected yet (and he moves way, way less than Fontecchio).

It is kind of wild how much Olynyk, Fontecchio and Dunn complemented not just Lauri but pretty much every teammate and that the Jazz got rid of them all. Nine out of ten best 2-players lineups by the net rating (mins>100) included one of them. We have zero glue guys on this team now (besides, maybe, Juzang). Filipowski can became the one but he will make a lot of mistakes next season.

Well I ran PBP search for any possessions that included only the key guys still in our roster, and it looks like Lauri played pretty well with a lineup consisting of those guys only. I mean its just little under 600 possessions, but its still somewhat decent sample. So these stats are from the possessions where the Jazz played any combination of Lauri, Kessler, Hendricks, Keyonte, Sexton, Collins and Clarkson.



That indicates that Lauri wasnt actually struggling without Dunn, KO and Tech on the floor.

However Lauri did struggle hitting his 3s when he and Kessler shared the court. In the 1391 possessions they played together Lauri took 179 threes (which is about the same as his usual rate) and hit "only" 36.31% of them. But the team actually scored 1614 points in those 1391 possesions... which gives a pretty decent PPP of 1.16 (not good really, but decent).

 

[HermanG]

One thing that might also distract all of us a bit here (including my last stats), is that KO, Tech and Dunn all had pretty low usage rates. So they deferred more and/or touched the ball less. That increases the usage of everyone else, including Lauri's whenever he was on the court. Lauri stats with Ochai were also similar.

Now the interesting thing here is, that Lauri's usage was actually higher whenever he played with Keyonte or Clarkson than it was when he played Sexton. His efficiency on the other hand was best with Keyonte (and these are all from 1500++ possessions) and worst with Clarkson.

In fact when Sexton and Lauri were both on the court at the same time, Sexton had a usage rate of 27.56% which is at All-star player level. And he actually hit 42.13% of his 3s and had a TS of 62.77% in those 2274 possessions. So you could say Collin benefits from playing with Lauri... lol.

 

[jazznik]

One thing that might also distract all of us a bit here (including my last stats), is that KO, Tech and Dunn all had pretty low usage rates. So they deferred more and/or touched the ball less. That increases the usage of everyone else, including Lauri's whenever he was on the court. Lauri stats with Ochai were also similar.

That's a really good observation. Collins, Sexton, Clarkson and Keyonte really like doing their own thing first. We would really, really benefit from having a good unselfish playmaker on the team. I know that most want Cody to become more aggressive and looking for his own shot first but he actually can mesh much better with Lauri if he focuses on getting everyone involved. The same is true for Flip.

 

[HermanG]

That's a really good observation. Collins, Sexton, Clarkson and Keyonte really like doing their own thing first. We would really, really benefit from having a good unselfish playmaker on the team. I know that most want Cody to become more aggressive and looking for his own shot first but he actually can mesh much better with Lauri if he focuses on getting everyone involved. The same is true for Flip.

I do agree that unselfish playmaker type is the best, but I think Lauri will have a nice season even without adding such a guy.

But if you were to find him a star level floor general who would develop great chemistry with him, then he could reach whole new levels.

 

[jazznik]

If you are just looking for the types of players then I would look at 2022/2023 vs 2023/2024. Last season was such a mess, I'm not sure that there's much to take away from it.

Well, the 2022/23 season was a mess too: lots of new players, a new coach, several players traded mid-season. I did look at it and it largely followed the same pattern: the most effective two-main lineups for Lauri were the ones were he was paired with Agbaji, Clarkson, Conley, Vanderbilt, Olynyk... Fontecchio was just getting used to the NBA then and was horrible, Olynyk and Dunn were also getting used to the new team and have not been as instrumental for playmaking playing beyond Conley. Two best 3-player lineups with Lauri were Lauri-Clarkson-THT and Lauri-Olynyk-THT, which again underscores that Markkanen is at his best when he is partnered with passers that have a good size for their position. The two worst ones were Lauri-Beasly-Sexton and Lauri-NAW_Kessler.

One thing that stood up to me that Lauri-Kessler pairing was much better on both offense and defense in 2022-23: not the best but not bad either. Which really underscores how much worse Kessler played last season. The same was true for Agbaji: he was a consistent feature on the very best 2-player and 3-players lineups. That makes me wonder if Kessler can bounce back and if the Jazz gave up on Agbaji a bit too early.

 

[idiot]

I appreciate the numbers discussion provided by @jazznik and @HermanG in this thread. Very interesting and worth some consideration.

I'd just caution a bit that numbers with other players are likely much more prone to variation/noise over different seasons than anybody's individual numbers. This is especially so when the sample sizes are relatively small and/or there hasn't been a lot of time for players to spend getting used to each other.

 

[homeytennis]

I suspect that whoever plays the best defense, limits offensive turnovers and isn't a total bricky ricky on offense will make Lauri look the best. I know that's going out on a limb.

 

[Ron Mexico]

It's really hard to draw conclusions from statistics the last two years. The extreme tanking measures and the team pretty much quitting the second half wrecks the stats.

 

[jazznik]

It's really hard to draw conclusions from statistics the last two years. The extreme tanking measures and the team pretty much quitting the second half wrecks the stats.

To some extent, that's true. On the other hand, tanking and quitting could muddle the data along the edges but it would not dramatically change the playing styles and fits: good passers would not magically turn into bad ones, bad 3-point shooters would not become snipers and start creating the space for the teammates.

The stats that I saw confirm the eye test: Lauri needs teammates who can find him in a good position with precise, timely passes and those who can create spacing for his drives to the basket. And, since he at best a neutral defender, he needs either good perimeter defenders or, at least, players with size - because Lauri is not Kessler and cannot effectively stop guards and wings who got free and are rolling to the hoop.

The problem that I see for the Jazz is that they traded away or let go ALL players who have these characteristics and now their best players and most promising young guys - Kessler, THT, Sexton, Collins - don't have those qualities and do not mesh well with Markkanen. Keyonte kinda does (mobile, can pass) but he is a wide-open sieve on defense and does not have a good size for a SG. The only player who theoretically should match really well with Lauri is Filipowski and we still do not know if he will be good enough defensively to play as a starter.

The Jazz will need to turn almost all of their current roster over to find players who would multiply the impact of the guy that they want to build around. Isn't it strange?

 

[jazznik]

It's really hard to draw conclusions from statistics the last two years. The extreme tanking measures and the team pretty much quitting the second half wrecks the stats.

Here are the stats for the season before the All-Star break, when the team has not been taking yet (net rating, min>100):

2-player lineups

Lauri-Dunn +8.5
Lauri-Olynyk +6.5
Lauri-Fontecchio +4.6
Lauri-Kessler +3.3
Lauri-Clarkson +1.8
Lauri-Agbaji +1.4
Lauri-Sexton +1.3
Lauri-George +1.0
Lauri-THT +1.0
Lauri-Collins -4.3


The stats for that part of the season are pretty much mirroring the data for the entire season: all three players who played the best with Lauri were traded. Kessler is doing a bit better and Collins is even a bigger negative outlier (he really struggled in the beginning of the season). When it mattered, Dunn was playing with Lauri infinitely better than any other guard.

 

[jazznik]

I was curious and decided to look who complemented well another important player on the Jazz, Kessler. We all know that he can be very effective but he needs good players to maximize his impact, at least on offense. Pre-All Star breaks best net rating for Kessler.

Kessler-Dunn +18.7 (!)
Kessler-Fontecchio +5.1
Kessler-Markkanen +3.3
Kessler-THT +0.7
Kessler-Olynyk -0.1

Four out of the five players who meshed with Kessler the best are gone now.

And Dunn is a very special case. Five best offensive pairs for the Jazz pre-All Star break were the ones with Dunn (with Markkanen, Fontecchio, Kessler, Sexton, and Clarkson). When Kessler played with Dunn they was putting the 124 offensive rating, which is pretty bonkers - and they also had the second best defensive rating for the team. Dunn was also the player with whom 8 Jazz players reached the highest OFFRATING (Markkanen, Fontecchio, Kessler, Sexton, Clarkson, Collins, Hendricks, George). He was simply making almost everyone on the team (even Kessler!) much, much better both offensively and defensively and the Jazz could have resigned him for very little money.

 

[KqWIN]

I tend to agree with others that the numbers deep dive might be futile given the circumstances…but I think we all know the deal with Lauri. He’s the best off ball offensive player in the league and has natural synergy next to ball handlers. He makes there job easier and if the better they are it makes his job easier.

As far as making Lauri better, I initially thought about how he might improve as a player rather than making him look better. I think he’s one of the most portable players in the league that’s going to help in ever team situation. I don’t think we need to overthink which players (especially when we’re talking about role players) that he needs to be surrounded with. But there are areas I think he could potentially improve in with his personal play.

The first place I see potential improvement for would be doing things with the ball in his hands. That could be scoring with the ball in his hands or improving his ball handling/handoff game to create some for others. I’m not sure if he has it in him, but to me this season would be a perfect chance to let him explore and expand his game as wins are not the priority.

The other area is defense. I think he’s a neutral defender, but I think he can be even better. Personally, I see more potential for him if he moves more towards being a big rather than perimeter player. If he can enable more small ball ish lineups by offering more big man value himself it could be super valuable.