Malone's # 2 spot is safe....Kobe is TOAST!

[LogGrad98]

If Lebron plays 11 more years (match the Mailman, retiring at 40) and if he can maintain the pace of scoring the Mailman did over his last 11 years (not counting the year he played in LA due to the injury messing up his stats), which is 25 ppg, then Lebron could end up with 50k points. I'm not saying it will happen, but becoming the top scorer in league history is well within his reach.

 

[b_line]

Lebron is 30. Malone retired at 41. Lebron came right out of high school. I could see him passing not only Malone but probably Kareem too. Unless he has a srs injury I think he will end his career with ~40,000 pts.

If Lebron plays 11 more years (match the Mailman, retiring at 40) and if he can maintain the pace of scoring the Mailman did over his last 11 years (not counting the year he played in LA due to the injury messing up his stats), which is 25 ppg, then Lebron could end up with 50k points. I'm not saying it will happen, but becoming the top scorer in league history is well within his reach.

Alright hot shots. You are forgetting that Carolina Jazz did the math, it's impossible for someone with tattoos to be better than the mailman.

 

[LogGrad98]

OK here is some math.

Let's say Lebron averages only 22 pts per game starting right now and into the future (for whatever time frame he continues to play), ignoring the fact that right now he is averaging 26 ppg and has averaged better than 26 ppg every single year of his career except the first. And let's say he doesn't play the rest of this season, so we start with his career point total right now, which is 24145. Also, let's assume starting next season he only averaged 75 games played per season going forward.

So at 22 ppg and 75 games per season, how many years will it take him to catch the top 3 (Kareem, Malone, and Kobe)?

Kareem = 38387 pts, 8.6 years
Malone = 36928 pts, 7.7 years
Kobe = 32482 pts, 5.1 years

At his current career averages how long will it take?

Current averages = 27.5 ppg and 79 games per season (adjusting for current season and lock-out shortened season)

Kareem = 6.6 years
Malone = 5.9 years
Kobe = 3.8 years

This would make him 36-37 years old when he surpasses Kareem.

So what if he plays as long as the Mailman did (till he is 41, so 11 more years), and only plays 75 games per season and his averages drop to the afforementioned 22 ppg?

In that scenario he finishes his career with 42295 pts, 3908 pts ahead of Kareem.

What if he finishes his career exactly as Malone did (again excluding Malone's injury shortened last season), which is about 79 games played per season and 25 ppg over 11 years?

In that scenario he ends with 45870 pts for his career, a full 7483 ahead of Kareem. Close to 9k pts ahead of Malone.

So let's take a reasonable educated guess. Let's assume that he decides to retire at age 36, after chasing another ring or 2, maybe getting 1 in the process. And let's say he does drop off a bit his career averages, say 26 ppg and 77 games played per season (against his averages of over 27 ppg and 79 games per season). Where does he end up then?

In that scenario he ends up at 36157, ahead of Kobe and just shy of Malone.

Now remember, we excluded the rest of this season from our calculations to this point, so for this last more realistic scenario let's assume his current scoring rate and games played rate for the rest of this season, which is 26.4 ppg for the next 45 games, so 1188 more points, or a total of 37345, which is just ahead of Malone and just behind Kareem.

So at that point is it that big a stretch to think he might play one more season to take the top spot? He would only need 1043 pts to do it. So if we do stretch it to 7 more seasons he then passes Kareem by 960 pts.

All in all I would say, barring some major injury or a car accident or something, that it is fairly certain that Lebron gets at least to the 2nd spot, and highly likely he takes the top spot by the end of his career.

 

[carolinajazz]

OK here is some math.

Let's say Lebron averages only 22 pts per game starting right now and into the future (for whatever time frame he continues to play), ignoring the fact that right now he is averaging 26 ppg and has averaged better than 26 ppg every single year of his career except the first. And let's say he doesn't play the rest of this season, so we start with his career point total right now, which is 24145. Also, let's assume starting next season he only averaged 75 games played per season going forward.

So at 22 ppg and 75 games per season, how many years will it take him to catch the top 3 (Kareem, Malone, and Kobe)?

Kareem = 38387 pts, 8.6 years
Malone = 36928 pts, 7.7 years
Kobe = 32482 pts, 5.1 years

At his current career averages how long will it take?

Current averages = 27.5 ppg and 79 games per season (adjusting for current season and lock-out shortened season)

Kareem = 6.6 years
Malone = 5.9 years
Kobe = 3.8 years

This would make him 36-37 years old when he surpasses Kareem.

...that is some impressive research and calculations you made there! Still don't think his body will hold up and the easy baskets needed to pass Malone and Kareem are just not in his future! 7 more years at 22 points a game? Possible....but not probable!

 

[Jazz Insider]

OP - do u ever wonder why ur rep is so negative? i mean, we're bout to hit quadruple digits. thats uncharted territory. not sure if neg rep even goes that far. might be in danger of breakin dis site. anyways, u ever wonder why? just curious to get in the mind of a historical figure on dis board. ill hang up 'n listen now, thx for ur time sir.