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Game Thread Mar 13, 2023 05:30PM MT: Jazz at Heat

Added to Calendar: 03-13-23

Great season so far. Fun to watch. Even if we end up 13th, we have plenty of fun. Guys improving, Lauri is an all star.... nothing to complain about .
 
I went back and re-watched the end of the 4th quarter, because I thought I saw something interesting, but wanted to confirm it. At about the 5 minute mark Ochai is about to check in, but then Simone hits a contested 3 to pull us within 1 and Hardy has Ochai go back to the bench and leaves Simone in to finish the game (eventually replacing KO with Ochai). Simone goes on to miss two open 3s, get a layup blocked, and commit an offensive foul to help seal the loss.

I think this brings up an interesting discussion, on coaching by feel vs coaching by logic. I think logic would say that Ochai is the better player and should have been in the game earlier, but obviously Hardy went by feel after watching Simone nail a 3 after having an incredible first half of the game as well. Ultimately I'm not sure it would have made too much of a difference, but it's something interesting for me to think about.

I do think it's nice to be able to reward a player who is playing well, especially over someone who isn't significantly better. On the negative side, I think it can throw off rotations. Also, by keeping someone in that has played well, you are likely giving them extended minutes vs what they are used to, meaning they are likely to be more fatigued.

Thoughts?
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I went back and re-watched the end of the 4th quarter, because I thought I saw something interesting, but wanted to confirm it. At about the 5 minute mark Ochai is about to check in, but then Simone hits a contested 3 to pull us within 1 and Hardy has Ochai go back to the bench and leaves Simone in to finish the game (eventually replacing KO with Ochai). Simone goes on to miss two open 3s, get a layup blocked, and commit an offensive foul to help seal the loss.

I think this brings up an interesting discussion, on coaching by feel vs coaching by logic. I think logic would say that Ochai is the better player and should have been in the game earlier, but obviously Hardy went by feel after watching Simone nail a 3 after having an incredible first half of the game as well. Ultimately I'm not sure it would have made too much of a difference, but it's something interesting for me to think about.

I do think it's nice to be able to reward a player who is playing well, especially over someone who isn't significantly better. On the negative side, I think it can throw off rotations. Also, by keeping someone in that has played well, you are likely giving them extended minutes vs what they are used to, meaning they are likely to be more fatigued.

Thoughts?
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I think it makes a difference whether player development is the priority or winning. In this instance I think it was the right call. Simone is having pretty much the best game he has had in the NBA. Give him a chance to finish and give him an opportunity that maybe he earned and hopefully get a little development out of him. If this is a game we really need/want to win then no, you go with ochai who has proven to be the better player consistently so far. As for a hypothetical situation in regards to this it depends what's happening. If the player is abusing a matchup then yeah you keep him in. But if it's just a guy hitting some lucky shots who usually isn't good, then no you go back to the better player. Unless it's a player that occasionally gets really hot and keeps hitting then you give him a little more time until he misses I guess.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I went back and re-watched the end of the 4th quarter, because I thought I saw something interesting, but wanted to confirm it. At about the 5 minute mark Ochai is about to check in, but then Simone hits a contested 3 to pull us within 1 and Hardy has Ochai go back to the bench and leaves Simone in to finish the game (eventually replacing KO with Ochai). Simone goes on to miss two open 3s, get a layup blocked, and commit an offensive foul to help seal the loss.

I think this brings up an interesting discussion, on coaching by feel vs coaching by logic. I think logic would say that Ochai is the better player and should have been in the game earlier, but obviously Hardy went by feel after watching Simone nail a 3 after having an incredible first half of the game as well. Ultimately I'm not sure it would have made too much of a difference, but it's something interesting for me to think about.

I do think it's nice to be able to reward a player who is playing well, especially over someone who isn't significantly better. On the negative side, I think it can throw off rotations. Also, by keeping someone in that has played well, you are likely giving them extended minutes vs what they are used to, meaning they are likely to be more fatigued.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
Every stats class I have taken always has a segment in it entitled "Beware of the Hot Hand." I think Hardy was going to ride the heater as far as he could.
 
homeytennis said:
Every stats class I have taken always has a segment in it entitled "Beware of the Hot Hand." I think Hardy was going to ride the heater as far as he could.
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Yeah, I purposefully worded my post to not include, "hot hand" since that concept has been studied and debated at length. It is an interesting statistical phenomenon though, and the research around it is interesting as well.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I went back and re-watched the end of the 4th quarter, because I thought I saw something interesting, but wanted to confirm it. At about the 5 minute mark Ochai is about to check in, but then Simone hits a contested 3 to pull us within 1 and Hardy has Ochai go back to the bench and leaves Simone in to finish the game (eventually replacing KO with Ochai). Simone goes on to miss two open 3s, get a layup blocked, and commit an offensive foul to help seal the loss.

I think this brings up an interesting discussion, on coaching by feel vs coaching by logic. I think logic would say that Ochai is the better player and should have been in the game earlier, but obviously Hardy went by feel after watching Simone nail a 3 after having an incredible first half of the game as well. Ultimately I'm not sure it would have made too much of a difference, but it's something interesting for me to think about.

I do think it's nice to be able to reward a player who is playing well, especially over someone who isn't significantly better. On the negative side, I think it can throw off rotations. Also, by keeping someone in that has played well, you are likely giving them extended minutes vs what they are used to, meaning they are likely to be more fatigued.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
Momentum is a real thing. If a coach makes a read that someone is "in the zone" you dont take him out even if he is just a slightly lesser player.

If that is what happened, Hardy made a bad read in hingsight but it was still the correct decision in that moment.
 
HermanG said:
Momentum is a real thing. If a coach makes a read that someone is "in the zone" you dont take him out even if he is just a slightly lesser player.

If that is what happened, Hardy made a bad read in hingsight but it was still the correct decision in that moment.
Click to expand...
I think it's a less real thing than maybe you do, but agree it should be taken in to consideration when you have two similar players.
 
Ochai should have passed that one to Kessler. His first step was good but went right tru one of the leagues best defender. Kessler was expecting it. Need to polish that one next time
 
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