Game Thread Mar 18, 2023 07:00PM MT: Jazz vs. Celtics

[Nate505]

Yeah… think of how happy all those San Antonio fans would have been had they brought back David Robinson like they should have and went on to win like 10-15 super memorable games and never had to endure the brutal Tim Duncan era… man what a disaster.

Or how happy the Blazers were when they miarcously won the lottery and got that stud Greg Oden, when the jabroni Kevin Durant was just waiting there. What a disaster.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

Or how happy the Blazers were when they miarcously won the lottery and got that stud Greg Oden, when the jabroni Kevin Durant was just waiting there. What a disaster.

You mean the #2 pick? How is that a point? lol

 

[Zombie]

Just cant really know that. The odds say it drops with every win but odds can be wrong. Sometimes horrible players are drafted early and hall of famers are drafted later.

I'm sure the response to this is going to be something along the lines that this isn't a rational way of looking at things. But lets be real, very little of sports fandom is rational. It's especially irrational to be a fan of a small market NBA team- there are so many barriers in place to winning a championship.

This is why I just can't get too upset about the Jazz not tanking properly this season. I just try to enjoy it for what it is, and celebrate the successes when they come, in whatever form.

 

[Nate505]

You mean the #2 pick?

Yeah, the Blazers won the lottery that year, and still managed to **** it up. Having a better pick, even when it's #1, doesn't guarantee success.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

Yeah, the Blazers won the lottery that year, and still managed to **** it up. Having a better pick, even when it's #1, doesn't guarantee success.

Okay. You still have to stink to get the #2 pick and Durant though.

 

[Nate505]

Okay. You still have to stink to get the #2 pick and Durant though.

For sure. The thing is though that unless the team falls out of the lottery in general, who knows where they'll pick. Winning 5 or whatever more games here and there gives you a slight edge, but not an amazing one. I think the difference between 12th (where the Jazz stand now) and 7th (if the Jazz say lost five more games) is a 1.5% chance of winning the lottery vs. a 7.5% chance. Obviously the 7.5% chance is a lot greater, but it's about the odds of rolling a 4 vs rolling a 2 with a pair of dice. It's just not worth it to me to root for losses for that.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

For sure. The thing is though that unless the team falls out of the lottery in general, who knows where they'll pick. Winning 5 or whatever more games here and there gives you a slight edge, but not an amazing one. I think the difference between 12th (where the Jazz stand now) and 7th (if the Jazz say lost five more games) is a 1.5% chance of winning the lottery vs. a 7.5% chance. Obviously the 7.5% chance is a lot greater, but it's about the odds of rolling a 4 vs rolling a 2 with a pair of dice. It's just not worth it to me to root for losses for that.

That is an absolutely massive difference imo. And easily worth the five wins that are essentially meaningless to me. The odds of jumping into top 3 are also way higher.

But I appreciate how you cut right to the heart of it. You either want those five wins or you want 5(+)% better odds. And that’s how the board has divided itself.

 

[Nate505]

That is an absolutely massive difference imo. And easily worth the five wins that are essentially meaningless to me. The odds of jumping into top 3 are also way higher.

But I appreciate how you cut right to the heart of it. You either want those five wins or you want 5(+)% better odds. And that’s how the board has divided itself.

Yeah, I really don't care about the odds. Especially after witnessing what the Jazz have done with the rare Top 5ish pick they get. And after witnessing teams who are constantly lottery pickers and the horrible culture their teams are mired in.

 

[Thee Jazz Fan]

Actually though, after this thread and all the tanker tears, the likelihood of remembering this victory is going to exponentially increase.

And add to your realization had we lost just 5 more games maybe we can draft a guy in a strong draft that would’ve made us a better team

Way more than any more theoretical lottery balls they may or may not have. Oh no, we might have had the 12th pick instead of the 15th. How horrible. Just think, if that didn't happen in 2011, the Jazz could have drafted Kwahi Leonard instead of Alec Burks. What a tragedy that would have been.

This makes no damn sense what so ever I can’t even read or get what kind of logic you’re trying to convey?

It’s not about the 12th pick or low odds at a top 3 pick. It’s about being in the best position possible to have the best odds possible to getting an allstar. Winning as zero advantage for us unless you think there’s a good chance we can go far and odds are ever not in our favor

Yeah, the Blazers won the lottery that year, and still managed to **** it up. Having a better pick, even when it's #1, doesn't guarantee success.

Them are the risks. What’s worse? 1. Getting the first pick and Vic busts, fine we just try again next year, continue to build depth have a top 8 pick next year. Or we get the 12-14 pick and good not great the next five years as a second round team. I’ve endured this for god knows how many years now and I’m done with that strategy.

For sure. The thing is though that unless the team falls out of the lottery in general, who knows where they'll pick. Winning 5 or whatever more games here and there gives you a slight edge, but not an amazing one. I think the difference between 12th (where the Jazz stand now) and 7th (if the Jazz say lost five more games) is a 1.5% chance of winning the lottery vs. a 7.5% chance. Obviously the 7.5% chance is a lot greater, but it's about the odds of rolling a 4 vs rolling a 2 with a pair of dice. It's just not worth it to me to root for losses for that.

Wut?????

Yeah, I really don't care about the odds. Especially after witnessing what the Jazz have done with the rare Top 5ish pick they get. And after witnessing teams who are constantly lottery pickers and the horrible culture their teams are mired in.

Remember the year we got the fifth pick and drafted Exum. Near the end of the year with 4-5 games remaining the jazz hit a buzzer beater three from Burk of all players, well because of that win over Orlando they ended up with the 4th pick, us the 5th we get Exum they took Gordon

 

[NUMBERICA]

That is an absolutely massive difference imo. And easily worth the five wins that are essentially meaningless to me. The odds of jumping into top 3 are also way higher.

But I appreciate how you cut right to the heart of it. You either want those five wins or you want 5(+)% better odds. And that’s how the board has divided itself.

Forget odds. Without lucking into the lottery, those 5 wins might drop the Jazz from ~6th pick to ~14th (ooooooooooooooo the play in!!!!!!1).

I wish I was a rube like some of the galaxy brains here but I’m stuck caring about basic realities.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

Remember the year we got the fifth pick and drafted Exum. Near the end of the year with 4-5 games remaining the jazz hit a buzzer beater three from Burk of all players, well because of that win over Orlando they ended up with the 4th pick, us the 5th we get Exum they took Gordon

**** happens.

 

[Nate505]

And add to your realization had we lost just 5 more games maybe we can draft a guy in a strong draft that would’ve made us a better team

This makes no damn sense what so ever I can’t even read or get what kind of logic you’re trying to convey?

It’s not about the 12th pick or low odds at a top 3 pick. It’s about being in the best position possible to have the best odds possible to getting an allstar. Winning as zero advantage for us unless you think there’s a good chance we can go far and odds are ever not in our favor

Them are the risks. What’s worse? 1. Getting the first pick and Vic busts, fine we just try again next year, continue to build depth have a top 8 pick next year. Or we get the 12-14 pick and good not great the next five years as a second round team. I’ve endured this for god knows how many years now and I’m done with that strategy.

Wut?????

Remember the year we got the fifth pick and drafted Exum. Near the end of the year with 4-5 games remaining the jazz hit a buzzer beater three from Burk of all players, well because of that win over Orlando they ended up with the 4th pick, us the 5th we get Exum they took Gordon

Maybe, maybe not. If the NBA draft has proven anything over the years it's that a high pick isn't necessarily a stronger player, especially around the 5-15 range. There are so many examples it would be tough to list them all.

I'm sorry you can't grasp the rest of it. Perhaps you should look at the past drafts and see. Like in 2011 when the Jazz could have drafted Kwahi but drafted Burks instead. Those extra losses weren't worth much that season.

And I remember the Exum draft well. Most people were thrilled Exum fell to the Jazz and the Magic took Gordon. I also remember that being a really strong draft with can't miss prospects like Wiggins and Parker and Embiid and Exum. Well, at least one of them was a can't miss.

I must say though, these tanker tears get better and better