Marvin, Carroll, Hayward and Jamaal, Earl, Burks - Do statistics back up your eyeballs?


mhindy

Well-Known Member
I think most of us have complained quite a lot recently about the lack of PT for Demarre, the fact that Marvin hasn't been exiled to Siberia, and the constant assertion that Watson or Tinsley should be playing backup PG minutes over Burks. I got curious, and decided to look at the stats from Basketball Reference to see how they relate to what I see when I actually watch the games. I'm looking at player efficiency rating, true shooting percentage, offensive rating, defensive rating, win shares, and win shares/48 as measures.

Hopefully this is somewhat enlightening.

First, Marvin, Carroll, and Hayward:

Marvin Williams
PER 10.2
TS .521
ORTG 102
DRTG 109
WS 1.3
WS/48 .049

Demarre Carroll
PER 16.7
TS .548
ORTG 119
DRTG 106
WS 2.6
WS/48 .149

Gordon Hayward
PER 16.8
TS .556
ORTG 110
DRTG 110
WS 2.8
WS/48 .110

I think this is pretty clear. Marvin is having the worst season of his career and honestly, he's been awful. A TS% of .521 for a guy who shoots almost entirely threes is terrible and from his PER, Ortg and Drtg it's evident he's not impacting the floor at all while he's out there. The fact that he's averaging more minutes than Carroll is criminal. Seriously, Carroll should consider suing Corbin for defamation and criminal negligence for damaging his future value.

Jamaal Tinsley
PER 10.7
TS .458
ORTG 96
DRTG 108
WS .7
WS/48 .031

Earl Watson
PER 8.4
TS .380
ORTG 93
DRTG 108
WS .3
WS/48 .02

Alec Burks
PER 11.1
TS .499
ORTG 99
DRTG 110
WS .5
WS/48 .038

Considering how poorly Burks started the season the fact that he's already caught up to both Earl and Tinsley in every singe category but defensive rating (although his ortg and drtg differential is better) is kind of astounding. When you factor in that Burks is 21 while both Tinsley and Earl will probably strongly consider retirement after this season, it's pretty bad.

Anyways, just thought some of you might find this interesting and kind of confirm and quantify how you feel about Corbin's idiotic rotations and inexplicable player preferences.
 
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mhindy

Well-Known Member
TS = True Shooting
True shooting percentage is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.

Drtg = Defensive Rating
Defensive Rating is points allowed per 100 possessions on the court

Ortg = Offensive Rating
Offensive Rating is points scored per 100 possessions on the court

WS = Win Shares
an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player, you can read more about it at this link https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html

WS/48 is just making this proportional to minutes played.
 

zman1527

Well-Known Member
So, what you are trying to say is that Hayward and Carroll > Marvelous, and Burks is > Watson or Tinsley? Whodathunkit? LMAO
 

mhindy

Well-Known Member
So, what you are trying to say is that Hayward and Carroll > Marvelous, and Burks is > Watson or Tinsley? Whodathunkit? LMAO

All I'm really trying to show here is that every single relevant measure shows the same thing. It's not that Corbin has any justification, it's that he's legitimately an idiot.

Demarre may well have diminishing returns of sorts (in fact, I highly suspect this is the case), meaning that he will somewhat regress at least on a per minute basis playing more than 15-20 minutes per game, but I'm showing here that he'd have to regress a **** of a lot to come even close to Marvin's level of incompetence.
 

zman1527

Well-Known Member
All I'm really trying to show here is that every single relevant measure shows the same thing. It's not that Corbin has any justification, it's that he's legitimately an idiot.

Demarre may well have diminishing returns of sorts (in fact, I highly suspect this is the case), meaning that he will somewhat regress at least on a per minute basis playing more than 15-20 minutes per game, but I'm showing here that he'd have to regress a **** of a lot to come even close to Marvin's level of incompetence.

Agreed. Corbin has no cojones so he just chooses the easy way out, play the vets.
 

Jazz4ever

Well-Known Member
Win shares is just a tweaked PER stat, relying heavily on box score stats. Most just use PER due to its simplicity. Carroll definitely needs more time over not so marvelous Marvin.
 

jope

Well-Known Member
demarre has mad WS, yo.

seriously though, who has the best WS in the league?

Win Shares
1. LeBron James-MIA 13.5
2. Kevin Durant-OKC 13.5
3. James Harden-HOU 9.4
4. Chris Paul-LAC 8.9
5. Tony Parker-SAS 8.8
6. Tyson Chandler-NYK 8.2
7. Blake Griffin-LAC 7.9
8. Kobe Bryant-LAL 7.9
9. Marc Gasol-MEM 7.7
10. Russell Westbrook-OKC 7.6
11. David West-IND 6.9
12. George Hill-IND 6.9
13. Paul George-IND 6.8
14. Dwyane Wade-MIA 6.6
15. Chris Bosh-MIA 6.4
16. Tiago Splitter-SAS 6.4
17. David Lee-GSW 6.4
18. Stephen Curry-GSW 6.2
19. Al Horford-ATL 6.1
20. Carmelo Anthony-NYK 6.1
 

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