Mavs or Warriors? Who do we want 1st round?

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

The Mavs aren't as athletic defensively as the Warriors. They also aren't as potent shooting from mid-range as the Warriors would be with Steph, Klay and OPJ. Jalen Brunson wouldn't be able to stop Mitchell or Clarkson when they're matched up. If the Mavs go small with DFS at the 5, the Jazz should be able to dominate in the paint. So on paper, the Mavs would be a better matchup for the Jazz.

However, if Steph is going to miss games, the Warriors aren't going to win a series, imo.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The Mavs aren't as athletic defensively as the Warriors. They also aren't as potent shooting from mid-range as the Warriors would be with Steph, Klay and OPJ. Jalen Brunson wouldn't be able to stop Mitchell or Clarkson when they're matched up. If the Mavs go small with DFS at the 5, the Jazz should be able to dominate in the paint. So on paper, the Mavs would be a better matchup for the Jazz.

However, if Steph is going to miss games, the Warriors aren't going to win a series, imo.

In the playoffs Luka is a murderer. Look at his stats against a great defensive team with wings on wings on wings. They have the personnel to switch everything… so tons of one on one. Because the offense runs through one dude it is more consistent and will limit turnovers. I think we legit have a shot to beat GS but would put it at 35% if Steph is somewhat healthy. I think the only way we beat Dallas is if Luka gets hurt. Luka might be the individual player you’d want to see least in the playoffs.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

In the playoffs Luka is a murderer. Look at his stats against a great defensive team with wings on wings on wings. They have the personnel to switch everything… so tons of one on one. Because the offense runs through one dude it is more consistent and will limit turnovers. I think we legit have a shot to beat GS but would put it at 35% if Steph is somewhat healthy. I think the only way we beat Dallas is if Luka gets hurt. Luka might be the individual player you’d want to see least in the playoffs.

Luka's great, but the rest of the Mavs team isn't that special. Luka's never won a playoff series, though he's made them competitive. If the Jazz trap Luka, the ball will go to Brunson or Dinwiddie, and it will be up to one of those guys to break us down. I like our chances, tbh. Between Royce O'Neale and Danuel House, the Jazz should be able to harass Luka full court.

It's just as important for the Jazz that the Mavs don't have shut-down defenders to put on Mitchell and Clarkson.

 

[Ujfanatic]

I don’t think it matters. I am expecting a quick playoff exit either way.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

This is a tough choice for me. I think we should be able to beat either team, but would not be surprised at melt downs against either team.

Golden State has both more deadly shooters as well as more non shooters. With Poole, Klay, and Steph, those are 3 guys that could get hot and kill us. They also have plenty of not great shooters in their rotation that you can have Gobert guard while also protecting the paint. If Steph isn't 100%, then Golden State isn't nearly as scary.

Dallas has less experience and less guys that I would be scared of, but Luka would be very difficult for us to handle. They can potentially play a 5 out style of offense that would be difficult for us to guard, but for some reason I'm just not that scared of their 5 out.

This season we have looked good against both teams, but also struggled against both teams. Again, tough choice for me. I went with Dallas as the team I think we would play better against, but it would be so satisfying to beat Golden State.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Luka's great, but the rest of the Mavs team isn't that special. Luka's never won a playoff series, though he's made them competitive. If the Jazz trap Luka, the ball will go to Brunson or Dinwiddie, and it will be up to one of those guys to break us down. I like our chances, tbh. Between Royce O'Neale and Danuel House, the Jazz should be able to harass Luka full court.

It's just as important for the Jazz that the Mavs don't have shut-down defenders to put on Mitchell and Clarkson.

Brunson and Dinwiddie are good secondary creators. They also have the personnel to do the exact thing that has caused us issues. DFS and Kleber can manage the glass while spreading the defense. So you trap Luka it’s either with Rudy doing it or one of our tiny guards… he hits an open shooter or Brunson/Dinwiddie and Rudy can either protect the paint or they get a wide *** open corner three. DFS shoots 45% from the corner. GS you don’t have the 5 out stuff that murders us. Mike actually guards Steph pretty well. House can likely do a decent job on Klay… we haven’t seen playoff Wiggins yet so who knows there… add all of that plus the fact that Steph won’t be 100% and likely has some rust.

Luka also feasts on small guards. They also have insider knowledge with Igor…

It really isn’t close imo but to each their own.

 

[Sean]

I wouldn't feel much differently than I do now, to be honest. I think we're all past the point of moral victories...it feels like it's at least conference finals or bust for this team. Conley will be 35 next season, Gay 36, Bogey 34 by next years playoffs. Even if your scenario came to fruition, I still feel like at the very least we need to re-tool around Rudy and Donovan in the offseason to try and get younger, more athletic and better defensively.

Agreed. This was supposed to be Utah's window to get it done. Losing to Phoenix or Memphis, who would then potentially go on to win it all, would be a bitter pill to swallow considering a year ago, the Grizzlies were 8th and two years ago, Phoenix needed a historic run to even get a shot at the playoffs.

Those scenarios can't be salvaged, imo

Basically, the only way I'd feel good about this team is if they went out and shocked their way to the NBA Finals ala Houston in 1995. But anything short of that will just be confirmation that this team's run has ended and there isn't going to be a real season where we've contended, which, unfortunately, has been almost every season since the lockout 1999 one.

I guess if the Jazz beat the Mavs, stun the Suns but lose a hard-fought series against Golden State in the WCF, I'd feel good about this team. But that's about the only scenario that is acceptable for me where Utah doesn't get to the NBA Finals and only because the Warriors have been there and give me Duncan era Spurs vibes where they're capable of winning another title, even a year after getting knocked out early in the playoffs.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Luka against the clips in a 7 game series that included Kawhi… 36/10/8 on 49/41 shooting splits.

I just want no part of that… he will set scoring records against us.

 

[LogGrad98]

Luka's great, but the rest of the Mavs team isn't that special. Luka's never won a playoff series, though he's made them competitive. If the Jazz trap Luka, the ball will go to Brunson or Dinwiddie, and it will be up to one of those guys to break us down. I like our chances, tbh. Between Royce O'Neale and Danuel House, the Jazz should be able to harass Luka full court.

It's just as important for the Jazz that the Mavs don't have shut-down defenders to put on Mitchell and Clarkson.

We don't trap. That isn't the system. Royce will take his ball, that is the only course of action. Done and done.

The system is love, the system is life.

 

[Hekate]

Hard to choose really.

Luka is a beast. He would methodically dissect the Jazz defense but if we switch some or blitz him and keep things in front of him, it may kinda slow him a little bit. Brunson has a tendency to wilt come playoff time and if he can't take the load off Doncic, it's a huge advantage as Doncic won't be able to keep up the same energy.

Brunson is a fine secondary creator but he struggled immensely last year and somewhat focused defenses neuter him. His drop last year was one of the biggest reasons they lost last year. Dinwiddie helps a lot there, though as another option.

They can also go small with DFS and Kleber but it also takes away some Doncic's strengths.

GSW is different. Jazz have played at the level against Steph before and it worked and Gobert can sag off Draymond to play safety. I think GSW is a fine matchup but Klay can absolutely go off and they have some other movement shooters that I don't think our perimeters defenders can follow. I don't think I can take a series of Mitchell and Clarkson getting lost every screen trying to catch Steph, Klay and Poole

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Hard to choose really.

Luka is a beast. He would methodically dissect the Jazz defense but if we switch some or blitz him and keep things in front of him, it may kinda slow him a little bit. Brunson has a tendency to wilt come playoff time and if he can't take the load off Doncic, it's a huge advantage as Doncic won't be able to keep up the same energy.

Brunson is a fine secondary creator but he struggled immensely last year and somewhat focused defenses neuter him. His drop last year was one of the biggest reasons they lost last year. Dinwiddie helps a lot there, though as another option.

They can also go small with DFS and Kleber but it also takes away some Doncic's strengths.

GSW is different. Jazz have played at the level against Steph before and it worked and Gobert can sag off Draymond to play safety. I think GSW is a fine matchup but Klay can absolutely go off and they have some other movement shooters that I don't think our perimeters defenders can follow. I don't think I can take a series of Mitchell and Clarkson getting lost every screen trying to catch Steph, Klay and Poole

The problem with the Warriors is that when they're playing frantically hard and in sync, their defense is top of the league. For the Jazz to win a series, their offense needs to work. When the Jazz have played the Warriors, Wiggins has guarded Bogdanovic well, they trap Mitchell, and Draymond is pretty disruptive. I just worry about the Jazz's offense holding up over a 7-game series.

The Warriors are high-variance, as they rely on certain shooters getting hot, but they have the potential to reach a level on defense that might cause the Jazz to wilt. There's also an aura of confidence about them, and as we know, the Jazz aren't the toughest mentally.

If Steph is going to miss games, then they're not the same team obviously, but otherwise they have 3 or 4 guys who have the ability to play at an All Star level. No one has seen them all healthy and playing together since the beginning of the season when they were pretty elite.

 

[Hekate]

The problem with the Warriors is that when they're playing frantically hard and in sync, their defense is top of the league. For the Jazz to win a series, their offense needs to work. When the Jazz have played the Warriors, Wiggins has guarded Bogdanovic well, they trap Mitchell, and Draymond is pretty disruptive. I just worry about the Jazz's offense holding up over a 7-game series.

The Warriors are high-variance, as they rely on certain shooters getting hot, but they have the potential to reach a level on defense that might cause the Jazz to wilt. There's also an aura of confidence about them, and as we know, the Jazz aren't the toughest mentally.

If Steph is going to miss games, then they're not the same team obviously, but otherwise they have 3 or 4 guys who have the ability to play at an All Star level. No one has seen them all healthy and playing together since the beginning of the season when they were pretty elite.

Mavs are probably a better defensive team now. They have been on the uptick for a while and it's made a huge difference.

GSW hasn't been the same defensively. They lost Draymond and they were fine for a few games and they lost their identity. I thought Draymond being back would help but they are far from their early season performance. May be Draymond becomes fully healthy in the playoffs (if he isn't now) and the playoffs ignite some fire for them.

I think Jazz need to execute against both teams but if they find their automatic offense of last year, they would be better equipped against GSW as they help a ton and that was pretty much how Jazz kept killing teams. They would punish almost every help. I miss that.