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Mock Draft 3.0 (Full Draft)

Handlogten's Heros said:
But is that the plan? It is not. So I don't really think that is relevant. You don't assume perfect health but you also don't assume you will miss your best player. Outside of a fairly catastrophic injury being around 26 wins is kind of just wild. Even Charlotte who was as injury plagued as anyone... got to that number this year.

Danny cleared space for some purpose. If we let JC walk (which is a real possibility) we don't think he does anything meaningful with 50M in space? I doubt Danny is all excited about finding the next big salary dump. Either through trade or in FA he will find a player or two with that space. If he is able to add a player and then you have an injury to Lauri or someone else... well you might end up in the same 35 win range. Its hard to be really good in this league... its also hard to be really bad if you are competent and play hard.

Put it this way. We have at least 5-6 moves this offseason... I consider each draft pick a move. Do we assume we whiff on all 5-6? How many hits will it take to push us over 40 wins? I think we hunt for young FA talent or young-ish guys in trades. I don't see a team offering up something intriguing for our 50M in space as a salary dump. So if we end up there its because we found nothing good and everything dried up. I don't think we are targeting 35ish wins and the 8-10 range... I think we could end up there if things go south.

I'm going to pause this discussion with everyone because like I said... its way too early. We have 5-6 moves... I want to see a few of them first before I project how many wins we will be lined up for.
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A dream mock was posted in the 2023 thread. Whitmore, Black, Bufkin. Imagine that happens. We definitely want those three dudes getting a ton of development time, right? Playing three rookies major minutes, often together, it’s just not something that historically leads to wins. We’d all love that draft, we’d all want them to play. And doing that might make our wins cap around 35 or so.

Agreed on letting these moves play out. But sometimes it’s that simple. Those three make our ceiling as a team way higher, makes us way more fun and exciting. But winning with them next year? That could be tough.
 
Bawse Dawg said:
A dream mock was posted in the 2023 thread. Whitmore, Black, Bufkin. Imagine that happens. We definitely want those three dudes getting a ton of development time, right? Playing three rookies major minutes, often together, it’s just not something that historically leads to wins. We’d all love that draft, we’d all want them to play. And doing that might make our wins cap around 35 or so.

Agreed on letting these moves play out. But sometimes it’s that simple. Those three make our ceiling as a team way higher, makes us way more fun and exciting. But winning with them next year? That could be tough.
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If that played out then I think our win total is still closer to 36 than 26. I am not saying we can't end up worse. But OKC is starting two rookies and a sophomore. They also added Dieng who developed in the G League.

I don't know that gifting guys major minutes is great for development and think 20-25 minutes to the best guys is plenty... if they show they deserve more then they aren't counterproductive to winning. If they aren't good enough 1 gets the G League dev path. If we did that and Black and Whitmore were getting 25 minutes a nigh and Bufkin is getting 10-15... and they are supplemented with Lauri, Walker, Dunn, KO, Ochai(hopefully he is a bit better), Sexton... it isn't the end of the world.

I think the old adage of rookies don't help you win is a little bit over-used. Rookies have very little shot helping a contender... which is why its hard for GS to find time for their guys, but Keegan Murray is starting for the Kings... OKC's young guys are helping... I think if they are so bad they hurt our chances of winning significantly that Hardy won't ride with them for major minutes. We saw it this year with two very competent and solid rookies.
 
Bawse Dawg said:
A dream mock was posted in the 2023 thread. Whitmore, Black, Bufkin. Imagine that happens. We definitely want those three dudes getting a ton of development time, right? Playing three rookies major minutes, often together, it’s just not something that historically leads to wins. We’d all love that draft, we’d all want them to play. And doing that might make our wins cap around 35 or so.

Agreed on letting these moves play out. But sometimes it’s that simple. Those three make our ceiling as a team way higher, makes us way more fun and exciting. But winning with them next year? That could be tough.
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And my last longwinded post isn't to fully disagree here... I just don't think we go Houston mode and give the keys to someone that will hurt our chances of winning. I think the biggest exception would be if we drafted Amen Thompson. If that happens I would change my projections.
 
Bawse Dawg said:
A dream mock was posted in the 2023 thread. Whitmore, Black, Bufkin. Imagine that happens. We definitely want those three dudes getting a ton of development time, right? Playing three rookies major minutes, often together, it’s just not something that historically leads to wins. We’d all love that draft, we’d all want them to play. And doing that might make our wins cap around 35 or so.

Agreed on letting these moves play out. But sometimes it’s that simple. Those three make our ceiling as a team way higher, makes us way more fun and exciting. But winning with them next year? That could be tough.
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just speaking for myself, this season I wanted Ochai, sexton, kessler, simone, etc playing big time minutes from day one and wanted conley, KO, clarkson, gay to ride pine. Because I thought the goal was to lose and develop.
Next year I think the goal is to win so I would be fine with Cam, Black, Bufkin having to earn their minutes and ride some pine while vets get the bulk of the minutes..... if that is what is best for winning. I got no problem bring rookies along slowly next year.

I have no idea what the front office actual plan is but if its to tank again then I say just trade Lauri. I dont think that is the plan though. I think the plan is to make the playoffs and use cap space and draft assets to get as good as possible as quickly as possible. Maybe im wrong though and everyone in the jazz organization is cool with slow playing the rebuild and tanking another year.
 
fishonjazz said:
just speaking for myself, this season I wanted Ochai, sexton, kessler, simone, etc playing big time minutes from day one and wanted conley, KO, clarkson, gay to ride pine. Because I thought the goal was to lose and develop.
Next year I think the goal is to win so I would be fine with Cam, Black, Bufkin having to earn their minutes and ride some pine while vets get the bulk of the minutes..... if that is what is best for winning. I got no problem bring rookies along slowly next year.

I have no idea what the front office actual plan is but if its to tank again then I say just trade Lauri. I dont think that is the plan though. I think the plan is to make the playoffs and use cap space and draft assets to get as good as possible as quickly as possible. Maybe im wrong though and everyone in the jazz organization is cool with slow playing the rebuild and tanking another year.
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With the potential of having 3 rookies the goal should not be to win but to get the young guys more experience, even Markkanen as a #1 in a low pressure situation. If that gets the jazz into the playoffs or the lotto so be it.
 
Thee Idiotic Minivan K said:
With the potential of having 3 rookies the goal should not be to win but to get the young guys more experience, even Markkanen as a #1 in a low pressure situation. If that gets the jazz into the playoffs or the lotto so be it.
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Eh, I think the goal should pretty much always be to win. I felt this year was an exception because we LITERALLY traded away the entire starting lineup. I want to get back to winning. I hope that is the goal. Also, there is no rule that we use all 3 draft picks. Maybe we consolidate them or trade one or two for a player. No idea. I dont want to tank next year though. If that is the route we take then we better trade lauri or bench him somehow and we better get rid of hardy too. We will be too good to tank if those two are involved. Probably should bench kessler and sexton too. Ya, that doesn't sound fun to me. No tanks.
Also, rookies can now go to the G-league for development. Trying to win doesn't necessarily mean that we cant also develop the rookies. Let them play in the G-leauge, and let them cover for injuries and foul trouble. Or if they pull a kessler and are amazing very quickly then play the **** out of em.
 
fishonjazz said:
Eh, I think the goal should pretty much always be to win. I felt this year was an exception because we LITERALLY traded away the entire starting lineup. I want to get back to winning. I hope that is the goal. Also, there is no rule that we use all 3 draft picks. Maybe we consolidate them or trade one or two for a player. No idea. I dont want to tank next year though. If that is the route we take then we better trade lauri or bench him somehow and we better get rid of hardy too. We will be too good to tank if those two are involved. Probably should bench kessler and sexton too. Ya, that doesn't sound fun to me. No tanks.
Also, rookies can now go to the G-league for development. Trying to win doesn't necessarily mean that we cant also develop the rookies. Let them play in the G-leauge, and let them cover for injuries and foul trouble. Or if they pull a kessler and are amazing very quickly then play the **** out of em.
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I mean you can try and win, but development should be the top priority. We need to know if Simone is part of our future, and continue to develop Kessler and Agbaji, and and THT if still here, then we are going to potentially have 3 rookies, do you want them riding the bench simply because we want wins in a year we have no shot to go far in the playoffs? I mean I could be wrong but if we have three rookies on the team I don’t think we will be contenders. We need to primarily focus on development. Regardless of what you or I want we as of next year are in the developmental stage.
 
The worst thing would be to go tank like or whatever again and miss the playoffs and give our draft pick to OKC. **** that noise. If we gonna be bad then lets be real bad.
 
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