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MoneyBall in the NBA

Batman

Batman

Well-Known Member
Check this out:

In the game against Houston, we shot a better FG percentage 45.6 Vs. 44.7 for the Rockets

We shot a better 3 point % 29.4 vs. 26.1

We had less turnovers 14 Vs. 15 for the Rockets

We also had More assists 19 Vs. 15 for the Rockets

All of this and we still lost the Game

The reason? Just look at this link... It is staggering.

https://weareutahjazz.com/lockedonjazz/2013/03/21/insider-moneyball-basketball-via-shot-charts/

We more than doubled the amount of mid range J's that the Rockets took.

The Mid range J has less value than the 3 ball based on points per shot

Thus in taking 3 pointers and shots at the rim most of the time, the rockets are getting more points per shot because they are getting to the line, getting high percentage shots at the rim and getting an extra point with every 3 they make. This is interesting.
 
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Even going back to when the Jazz played the Rockets in the playoffs most recently, I remember reading that the defensive strategy of the Rockets was to force you to take long 2 point shots. It's a sound strategy.
 
jazz strategy is to give them open 3s and force them towards the middle for open lay ups.
 
Batman said:
Check this out:

In the game against Houston, we shot a better FG percentage 45.6 Vs. 44.7 for the Rockets

We shot a better 3 point % 29.4 vs. 26.1

We had less turnovers 14 Vs. 15 for the Rockets

We also had More assists 19 Vs. 15 for the Rockets

All of this and we still lost the Game

The reason? Just look at this link... It is staggering.

https://weareutahjazz.com/lockedonjazz/2013/03/21/insider-moneyball-basketball-via-shot-charts/

We more than doubled the amount of mid range J's that the Rockets took.

The Mid range J has less value than the 3 ball.

Thus in taking 3 pointers and shots at the rim most of the time, the rockets are getting more points per possesion because they are getting to the line, getting high percentage shots at the rim and getting an extra point with every 3 they make. This is interesting.
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jefferson i'm looking at you
 
From a fascinating piece on advanced analytics from Grantland found here.

An example: The analytics team is unanimous, and rather emphatic, that every team should shoot more 3s — including the Raptors and even the Rockets, who are on pace to break the NBA record for most 3-point attempts in a season.
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For Rucker and his team, this is a question that gets at the value of particular shots, the impact of the shot clock, and how coaches teach players. "When you ask coaches what's better between a 28 percent 3-point shot and a 42 percent midrange shot, they'll say the 42 percent shot," Rucker says. "And that's objectively false. It's wrong.
Click to expand...

But the analytics team argues that even sub–35 percent 3-point shooters should jack more 3s,8 and that coaches should probably spend more time turning below-average 3-point shooters into something close to average ones.
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I read this just after I heard Dennis O'Lindsay talking about how the NBA has evolved and changed, and about the same time the Jazz were getting thier butts kicked. O'Lindsay gave me hope.
 
mellow said:
From a fascinating piece on advanced analytics from Grantland found here.








I read this just after I heard Dennis O'Lindsay talking about how the NBA has evolved and changed, and about the same time the Jazz were getting thier butts kicked. O'Lindsay gave me hope.
Click to expand...





Crazy the way the League is going... The day of the dominant big man is clearly over. The midrange game is also on the downward trend, especially when all the Gm's and Coaches wise up and realize that advanced metrics has an important place in evaluating team success as well as players... Advanced metrics has likely hurt Big Al's Market a lot or it should.
 
After reading the Grantland piece it made sense to me why the Jazz struggle. Why the Bulls, Rockets, Blazers always beat them in the playoffs. Why Sean Elliot makes fun of the Jazz offense, and why it was probably good that Jerry left.

Also makes me think that Derrick and Kanter can't both stay. Ty Corbin must go.

If everyone in teh NBA buys into the analytics of the 3pt shot and the NBA changes accordingly then I beleive the next logical progression for the game is to either eliminate the 3pt shot or to create a 4pt shot 3-4 feet further out. Maybe in 10 years or so?
 
Flex is supposed to create layups. Corbin seems oblivious to this. Corbinfense is 1 part Alfense & 1 part mid-range. It's maddening stupid.

Hayward wouldn't look like crap in his off games if Corbin didn't make him take so many long, semi-contested jumpers.
 
mellow said:
After reading the Grantland piece it made sense to me why the Jazz struggle. Why the Bulls, Rockets, Blazers always beat them in the playoffs. Why Sean Elliot makes fun of the Jazz offense, and why it was probably good that Jerry left.

Also makes me think that Derrick and Kanter can't both stay. Ty Corbin must go.

If everyone in teh NBA buys into the analytics of the 3pt shot and the NBA changes accordingly then I beleive the next logical progression for the game is to either eliminate the 3pt shot or to create a 4pt shot 3-4 feet further out. Maybe in 10 years or so?
Click to expand...

I actually am of the mindset that you could still win big with our two bigs becasue they are not the same kind of Big. You'll always need a Rim Protector and that is what Favors can be. To be good defensively, you need to rebound the basketball and they can certainly both do that. just look at the Mavs! they won with a front court of Dirk and Chandler. Favors is Chandler and Kanter could be Dirk with his offensive efficiency. ultimately, you just need 3 guys who can dfend the parimater and shoot the 3 ball along with one of those 3 guys being a PG that can drive and Kick. if you have that, Favors and Kanter would Fit perfect... Just look at Memphis. not a perfect example, but a good one.
 
Playing big - especially in a league moving away from that, where post scoring is evaporating, and opposing centers are shrinking and mostly guarding perimeter players at the basket - will increasingly give teams THAT DO IT WELL an exceptional advantage. A quicker but smaller opposing center whose job is to guard on the perimeter and rotate to block shots will get chewed up by a player like Kanter (who imposes his will with physical play). Nothing is as effective as a layup, and nothing distorts a defense easier than an offense that gets easy buckets. Get in the paint and score or shoot threes. Save mid-range for hero-ballers and bigs as a release valve/clear 3rd option in contrast to the other two.

Where the Jazz fail at this is that Al doesn't punish guys that bite on fakes and aren't strong enough or skilled enough to stop the post. He avoids contact any time he can and bails out his matchup. Additionally, the Jazz isolate the post in such an extreme way that Al (or whoever) HAS to beat his matchup because passing angles/lanes have been cut off. Al isn't good enough to make an idea like that count, and I'm sure a reason they have these plays where they go all-in with Al is because Corbin didn't trust the others to capitalize on the attention Al gets, or Corbin isn't confident Al can make the right pass. Anyway you slice it, the problems are - once again - Al and Corbin.
 
NUMBERICA said:
Playing big - especially in a league moving away from that, where post scoring is evaporating, and opposing centers are shrinking and mostly guarding perimeter players at the basket - will increasingly give teams THAT DO IT WELL an exceptional advantage. A quicker but smaller opposing center whose job is to guard on the perimeter and rotate to block shots will get chewed up by a player like Kanter (who imposes his will with physical play). Nothing is as effective as a layup, and nothing distorts a defense easier than an offense that gets easy buckets. Get in the paint and score or shoot threes. Save mid-range for hero-ballers and bigs as a release valve/clear 3rd option in contrast to the other two.

Where the Jazz fail at this is that Al doesn't punish guys that bite on fakes and aren't strong enough or skilled enough to stop the post. He avoids contact any time he can and bails out his matchup. Additionally, the Jazz isolate the post in such an extreme way that Al (or whoever) HAS to beat his matchup because passing angles/lanes have been cut off. Al isn't good enough to make an idea like that count, and I'm sure a reason they have these plays where they go all-in with Al is because Corbin didn't trust the others to capitalize on the attention Al gets, or Corbin isn't confident Al can make the right pass. Anyway you slice it, the problems are - once again - Al and Corbin.
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Out of rep.

Passing lanes, i.e. floor spacing, can't be thrown at Corbin enough. The only thing I'd build on is some mf'ing motion from every player on the floor all the time with hard v cuts and lots of misdirection. Corbin's set plays with few options might work with better skilled clubs but they're nothing less than sack riding critters with this group. I keep thinking he's building the offense slowly for the next group... running out of patience though.
 
The other point of difference in the Houston game was that the Rockets (Harden and Lin) generated a huge free-throw differential to their team's advantage. They shot 3s, they got to the rim, and they drew fouls. The Jazz have the ability to play this way too, but it requires having Hayward and Burks on the floor.
 
On a related note, look at the difference Steph Curry is making for the Ws this year. He fires away from 3 and does fairly well getting to the line too.
 
5-17 from behind the arc. Houston shot 6-23. Hardly a significant discrepency. The Jazz lost because (without getting into their putrid effort in the first-half) Houston made 11 more free throws. That's what happens when you run pick&roll with scoring threats and floor spacing.

One of the bigger misconceptions about "Jazzbasketball" is that they don't understand the value of the 3-pointer. The best Jazz offenses came when they had atleast three efficient 3-point shooters in their lineup. The difference is the Jazz thrived with the 3pt serving more as a threat than a primary tool (i.e. to create floor-spacing to create more layups & free throw opportunities) - with their 3pt accuracy keeping defenses honest when they would try to collapse inside.
You can argue on volume of 3pt-attempts all you want, but the Jazz had the #3 rated offense in 2006-07, the #1 rated offense in 2007-08, and the #8-rated offense in both 2008-09 and 2009-10.
The issues with the current Jazz team are they feature a starting lineup with players who are incapable of running any offensive system. Al Jefferson is a volume shooter that's allergic to drawing fouls. Mo Williams is a shoot-first and ask questions later point guard. Marvin, when starting, would simply be camped out at the 3pt-line as if he's Shane Battier (fyi he's not). Think of all the times Utah's offense breaks down leaving Foye to go 1-on-1 with disastrous results. And as a unit - they are horrid defensively. The 2nd-unit not only plays better defense - they execute on offense better - particularly screen-roll w/Hayward&Burks but also screen harder (Fav/Enes are often called for moving screens but they actually try to put their body on someone) and pass better.
The Jazz are on pace to break the franchise record for 3pt-attempts in a season and what has it gotten them? Their PPG, FG% and FT Att are the lowest they've been in 7 years and they're 35-36..
Utah's "system" under Jerry&Phil has proven to be effective with elite players (Stockton&Malone) and with above-average but not elite players (DWill, Booze, Okur). Unless an elite top-10 scorer/playmaker emerges on the Jazz - it's still imperative Utah runs some type of disciplined system ("disciplined" meaning they have the focus and ability to execute it properly and make the sum greater than the parts a la Jazz under Sloan, Spurs under Popavich, ect) that gets them quality shots, while also taking advantage of (rather than ingnoring) the promising defensive potential they possess.
The pressing issue remains can they find a coach who can put his best players in a position to succeed.
 
Being able to rep vslice for that makes me very happy. Continually outdoing himself with no frills like it is nothing.
 
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