My idea on how to fix lottery/tanking

[jazznik]

If you decide to argue a point then at least have the decency to read it. There is no 1 in 8 chance to get the 4th pick in that system, and actually 50% of the teams in 9-14 range would pick in top 6.

If there is some generational guy then the best odds you get for that guy are 12.5% and since there are 8 teams who get those odds you dont really need to "tank hard" to get there unless you are a legit playoff caliber team to begin with. So the question is whether you are willing to sabotage your team/franchise to get an outside shot at "that guy" or whether you would rather be building up and keeping the team feisty while knowing that if you happen to miss the playoffs then at least you have a coin toss chance to get a really good prospect to add to that feisty group.

You still do not understand the main flaw in your proposed system. The current draft system gradually decreases the draft odds so that in general the teams have no strong incentives to drop 1 or 2 places down. Your system creates crazy incentives to drop down from one group to another. Teams from 9-14 will be fighting for a chance to drop to the bottom eight, while the 8-place teams have a strong incentive to not make playoffs and instead have a great chance for the 4-6 pick.

Also, you are absolutely killing the very idea of the play-in. The teams will be putting their G-league squads on the floor to start the play-in games. The only teams not incentivized to tank in your system will be teams with the 1-4 worst record, while teams in the 5-16 standings will all be dropping games like crazy. Under your system only 6-7 teams in each conference will play meaningful basketball, while all other games will be unwatchable.

 

[bopahull]

I think my idea of making the first 6 picks a flat out lottery with all teams getting equal odds then go by record. This wouldn't eliminate tanking completely, but the incentive to tank would be lower.