My Jazz salary projections.

[jazzfan1971]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14Ql1-MPBawvhGyUxh7IyRebAFK_xrnliUYcRq3DnUQg/edit?usp=sharing

I'm trying to wrap my head around what the Jazz future salary situation is going to be. So, I created this spreadsheet. I've made a ton of assumptions on who will be staying and how much player will be making. You can't really do this exersize without making those sort of assumptions. They are listed at the bottom of the spreadsheet.

Long story short, it looks like the Jazz will be below the luxury tax pretty comfortably for the next 2 years, then it starts to get ugly. Meaning at that point either we can't afford Dante or Hood or will have to trade off one of Favs, Gobert, or Hayward.

If one of Dante or Hood doesn't pan out then that problem solves itself, in a not so good of fashion.

(different assumptions will of course lead to different conclusions)

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14Ql1-MPBawvhGyUxh7IyRebAFK_xrnliUYcRq3DnUQg/edit?usp=sharing

I'm trying to wrap my head around what the Jazz future salary situation is going to be. So, I created this spreadsheet. I've made a ton of assumptions on who will be staying and how much player will be making. You can't really do this exersize without making those sort of assumptions. They are listed at the bottom of the spreadsheet.

Long story short, it looks like the Jazz will be below the luxury tax pretty comfortably for the next 2 years, then it starts to get ugly. Meaning at that point either we can't afford Dante or Hood or will have to trade off one of Favs, Gobert, or Hayward.

If one of Dante or Hood doesn't pan out then that problem solves itself, in a not so good of fashion.

(different assumptions will of course lead to different conclusions)

So no Hill or Hill replacement?
I think that may be a bit high for Ingles but who knows.
I think the first round picks will have a higher salary in new CBA.

Overall not bad.

 

[jazzfan1971]

Can we afford Hill? Lets say someone offers him 20 mil a year, look what that does to our salary structure. It basically kills us, for a guy that's never played this well before and has always been a middle of the road PG.

I'm counting heavily on Dante with this projection. For better or worse, he's the horse I'm hitching my wagon to.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Can we afford Hill? Lets say someone offers him 20 mil a year, look what that does to our salary structure. It basically kills us, for a guy that's never played this well before and has always been a middle of the road PG.

I'm counting heavily on Dante with this projection. For better or worse, he's the horse I'm hitching my wagon to.

Could trade Burks or favors to clear some room.

The more I look at the George hill conundrum it seems more likely he is not back.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Can we afford Hill? Lets say someone offers him 20 mil a year, look what that does to our salary structure. It basically kills us, for a guy that's never played this well before and has always been a middle of the road PG.

I'm counting heavily on Dante with this projection. For better or worse, he's the horse I'm hitching my wagon to.

If Hayward re-signs and is okay hitching his wagon there too I'd be okay with it but I'd want another vet in to help.

 

[Chargers Jazz Angels]

I think favors is going to get less. Unless he comes back next year and plays injury free he is hurting his worth.

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[Chargers Jazz Angels]

That is another problem favors has 1 more year left on his current deal

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[Chargers Jazz Angels]

I am sure the jazz would trade Burks before losing hill

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[vegas]

I think this paints a reasonable picture. Also I believe they reduced the tax projection to 123 next year.

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[BTP]

I'm pretty sure 7.5% is the max change from season to season, which is why $2M raises shouldn't work.

 

[jazzfan1971]

I need to re run this with the Jazz keeping Hill and see how it looks.

 

[jjscap]

We need to let Hill walk if he demands $22m+ /year, which he likely will and you can't judge him, this is his final contract.
If Exum keeps improving and stays healthy, we should add another veteran PG like Deron Williams and keep rolling.

These are the players we should keep:
1. Hayward .. $30m He's become a true star this year
2. Ingles.. $11m Dude is a key clog, one of the best 3P shooters in the game, smart, unselfish and fearless.. great locker room guy too.
3. Burks.. $11 he brings a unique skillset that can't be replaced easily. Undervalued as hell too.

 

[Keefe]

While we def need to address the 4 in this draft, I also think we need to go hardcore after one or two snipers. The game has evolved and shooting is soooooo important. Hayward is just a slightly above average perimeter shooter. Exum stinks. Hood is inconsistent, misses games due to injury, and could be too expensive when the time comes, so I think we need to look at that now. A backup to Gobert needs to be considered too.

 

[Keefe]

We need to let Hill walk if he demands $22m+ /year, which he likely will and you can't judge him, this is his final contract.
If Exum keeps improving and stays healthy, we should add another veteran PG like Deron Williams and keep rolling.

These are the players we should keep:
1. Hayward .. $30m He's become a true star this year
2. Ingles.. $11m Dude is a key clog, one of the best 3P shooters in the game, smart, unselfish and fearless.. great locker room guy too.
3. Burks.. $11 he brings a unique skillset that can't be replaced easily. Undervalued as hell too.

I think we could get a pure scorer in the draft or cheaper in FA than Burks at his 11M. Field offers for him or include him in deals if it means we are upgrading somewhere but in no way do I feel we should unequivocally keep him. He's replaceable.

 

[Hekate]

While we def need to address the 4 in this draft, I also think we need to go hardcore after one or two snipers. The game has evolved and shooting is soooooo important. Hayward is just a slightly above average perimeter shooter. Exum stinks. Hood is inconsistent, misses games due to injury, and could be too expensive when the time comes, so I think we need to look at that now. A backup to Gobert needs to be considered too.

Hay shoots %40 from 3 and is also around %40 on pull-up 3s. That's great for a player who shoots 5 of them per game and is mostly on-ball. It's one of the reasons he has been in top 5 in stats that measure effiency.

But, yeah, I wouldn't say no to a shooter.

 

[Keefe]

Hay shoots %40 from 3 and is also around %40 on pull-up 3s. That's great for a player who shoots 5 of them per game and is mostly on-ball. It's one of the reasons he has been in top 5 in stats that measure effiency.

But, yeah, I wouldn't say no to a shooter.

He's def better this year but I worry this may be a slight anomaly. Prob not though since kid works his *** off.

 

[jjscap]

I think we could get a pure scorer in the draft or cheaper in FA than Burks at his 11M. Field offers for him or include him in deals if it means we are upgrading somewhere but in no way do I feel we should unequivocally keep him. He's replaceable.

These days you can't draft an NBA-ready guy that can contribute right away and we can't wait for another teenager to develop, we already have two of them.
Also you can't get good offers for Burks. Dwade replied "Alec Burks" when asked about the most underrated player in the league. Add the injury history.. So he's undervalued.

I don't think he should start Burks over Hood or anything. Still he is the Utah Jazz's #1 player in terms of some key attributes: athleticism, slashing, dunking, individual scoring, drawing fouls.... Good luck with replacing with a $5m dude.

 

[jazzfan1971]

I've been running scenarios where we keep Hill. Even if we dump Burks AND Favors, we are still looking at the luxury tax in a couple of years. It's an ugly scenario if we try to keep Hill at anywhere around what his agent thinks is available.

Makes me wonder if the owners are willing to pony up for 30mil + luxury tax payments.

 

[Jazz Traveler]

Exum and Lyles are 21. Bolomboy is 23. We don't have any teenagers. I think we have to keep looking for hidden gems in the draft. Productive players on rookie contracts are so valuable.

 

[Ellipse]

I've been running scenarios where we keep Hill. Even if we dump Burks AND Favors, we are still looking at the luxury tax in a couple of years. It's an ugly scenario if we try to keep Hill at anywhere around what his agent thinks is available.

Makes me wonder if the owners are willing to pony up for 30mil + luxury tax payments.

Only if the Jazz make it to the Finals this year. If this team does not have a legitimate shot at winning it all, then the owners would be stupid to go into the luxury tax to keep them together.