My whine about the amnesty rule

[northeast]

Last 13

Lakers 7 (5), Spurs 3 (3), Heat 3 (2), Celtics 2 (1), Pistons 2 (1), Nets 2, Mavericks 1 (1), Cavs 1, Magic 1, Sixers 1, Pacers 1, Thunder 1 = 12 different teams

so I was right, basketball is less competitive than football or baseball, if competitiveness is defined as having a lot of different teams making it to the finals or winning the finals over a period of time.

 

[Chad Feldheimer]

In order to determine competitive balance, I think you have to consider the longevity of bad teams, not the randomness of good teams.

In MLB, the following teams have not even been to the playoffs in a considerable amount of time:

Seattle Mariners- 10 Years
Baltimore Orioles- 14 Years
Toronto Blue Jays- 18 Years
Pittsburgh Pirates- 19 Years
KC Royals- 26 Years
Washington Nationals- 30 Years

Can you imagine being a fan of a team that hasn't even made the playoffs in 30 years? 30 YEARS!!!!! If you are under 30 years old, this franchise has not made the playoffs during your existence!

Only 6 teams have have not made the playoffs in the past 3 years in the nba. Look at the list of 6 mlb teams above and how long they have been out of the playoffs. Of the 6 nba teams, a few would be considered likely or possible playoff teams next year (Brooklyn, Minnesota, Golden State).

Baseball sometimes gets off the hook because rarely do teams repeat as champions, but I think that has more to do with the randomness in outcomes in a 7 game series. Only two teams in MLB currently have won more than 60% of their games (Yanks and Rangers). In the last NBA full season (10-11) 9 teams had a winning percentage over 60%, and 3 were over 70%. Baseball just has more randomness to it than do basketball. That's why they need to play 162 games to really determine which teams are any good. Then when teams play a best of 7, it's almost a crap-shoot determining who will win.

Eh it's a pretty decent argument until you realize that the NBA HAS SIXTEEN TEAMS IN THE PLAYOFFS EVERY YEAR. That's more than half the league.

Baseball has a 8 teams a year. Just over 1/4 of the league, and that's only since '94 after they added the wildcard. Before that it was it 4. Much tougher to make the playoffs in baseball by far.

 

[northeast]

In order to determine competitive balance, I think you have to consider the longevity of bad teams, not the randomness of good teams.

nah, its a matter of personal preference.
You certainly don't HAVE to, so no.
You can it look at it that way you want, but most attention in sports revolves around who wins it all, not the race to get into the middle of the pack. I would suppose my formula could be improved upon by incorporating more factors, but the fact that football and baseball get more teams competing for the top spot in a given time period than basketball does says it fine for me. Given Chads point, it sounds like a more complex analysis will reach the same conclusions anyway.