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Nate Silver's NBA Playoff Predictions

Et tu Brute said:
Nate Silver has really outdone himself.
Giving the Cavs an 11% chance of making the Finals and a 2% chance of winning it all is the stupidest statistical prediction everrrrrrrr.
Yep, apparently the Celts and Wizards have a better chance.

If that is what the numbers are saying - they don't tell us a single thing.
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Cavs have been playing like ***. The only reason Lebron won last year is because Green got suspended for punching nuts. Eastern Conference road is much tougher this year.
 
For those that hate Silver, please show your own statistical model. Note that you saying Silver sucks is not a statistical model.
 
Rounds 2 and 3 could be very tough for the Cavs. V an improved Raptors team and then likely v the Celtics without home court advantage. Unlike previous years the Cavs are not a lock for the finals.
 
Et tu Brute said:
Nate Silver has really outdone himself.
Giving the Cavs an 11% chance of making the Finals and a 2% chance of winning it all is the stupidest statistical prediction everrrrrrrr.
Yep, apparently the Celts and Wizards have a better chance.

If that is what the numbers are saying - they don't tell us a single thing.
Click to expand...

Totally agree. Another thing I disagree with is the huge probability of the Warriors winning it all. They are definitely weaker this year without rim protectors like Bogut and Ezeli. They are also minus Harrison Barnes but I think the rim protection is where they are much weaker and if they lose, I think this will be their Achilles heal. I think the Spurs are weaker too, another year older for Parker and Ginobili, and no Tim Duncan. No way are they as good. Gasol helps but not enough to compensate.
 
Et tu Brute said:
Nate Silver has really outdone himself.
Giving the Cavs an 11% chance of making the Finals and a 2% chance of winning it all is the stupidest statistical prediction everrrrrrrr.
Yep, apparently the Celts and Wizards have a better chance.

If that is what the numbers are saying - they don't tell us a single thing.
Click to expand...

The model uses the regular season to forecast the playoffs. Not sure why people would want to use this methodology without adding their own judgment -- and ignore other non-modellable factors such as the possibility that the Cavs underachieved and have another gear. This would miss the point of statistical modeling. It is no supposed to replace judgment, but rather to add insights that people might miss and therefore improve (not replace) our judgment.

All that aside, I would bet on Silver's model over 90% of NBA fans, including myself. Humans miss many factors that the model picks up.
 
LifeOnaPlate said:
So game by game Silver's model has the Clippers winning in 7, tho.
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True, but that kinda misses the point. 52% of the time the Jazz winning in 4,5,6,or 7 games and 48% of the time have the clippers winning in 4.5.6 or 7 games.
 
I just created a playoff prediction thread. All you guys can show that you are smarter than Nate's algorithm.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Cavs have been playing like ***. The only reason Lebron won last year is because Green got suspended for punching nuts. Eastern Conference road is much tougher this year.
Click to expand...

Hey I was rooting for the Warriors in that series.
But that argument that they lost cause Dray missed game 5 is so lameeeeeeee.

They had TWO chances at home to close it out.
And Draymond was there for 6 and 7.

Reason Warriors lost is cause Curry was hampered and couldn't dribble round friggen Kevin Love.
 
NAOS said:
Well, because it's the Leastern Conference, they can continue to play mediocre and still beat the Pacers; and maybe they can find a way to fix things with another 1st-round free pass (and all the rest and practice time afforded). I know they'd be in a ****load of trouble if they were facing the Grizzlies instead. Hell, even the Blazers would give them fits right now.
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Blazers? Really.

Who covers Kyrie and Bron?
 
Where is the 52% upset prediction coming from? The link shows the Jazz with a 42% to make the semis (i.e. making it out of the first round vs Clips)
 
Et tu Brute said:
Hey I was rooting for the Warriors in that series.
But that argument that they lost cause Dray missed game 5 is so lameeeeeeee.

They had TWO chances at home to close it out.
And Draymond was there for 6 and 7.

Reason Warriors lost is cause Curry was hampered and couldn't dribble round friggen Kevin Love.
Click to expand...

Momentum is a fickle thing...
 
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