Opponent 3 pt shooting

[HermanG]

One thing that puzzles is that on transition defense we are still super slow in communicating and picking up free runners. Its "all eyes on the ball" mentality, where opponent can go 2 against 3 and run the other guy to the corner and all our guys are almost guaranteed to just focus on the ball carrier.

An example from last game:
How on earth does this transition play lead to a wide open 3? We have all 5 guys under the ball and 3 against 1 in our side of the court. Yet Juzang just keeps pointing at Conley instead of picking him up and Sexton doesnt pick up anyone until its too late.



Conley missed the shot but its a shot he never should have had.

 

[HermanG]

I went to deep dive a bit and its definitely not entirely clear by the numbers why those percentages are that high.

In that same stretch of 20, we have allowed the 8th fewest corner 3's to our opponents. We have seen the most above the break 3 attempts out of any team at 29.4 with a 44.6% success rate which is absurdly high.



We rank 9th in giving up wide open 3s, so there are 8 teams that give up more:



We rank 14th in giving up open 3's, and there are 4 teams (Suns, Hornets, Raptors and Bulls) that give up more 3s in both categories ("open" and "wide open").

I dont think it is luck though.... I think one key part of it is the fact that opponents feel pretty comfortable playing against us. Neither our offense or our defense puts a ton of pressure on the opponents. We are definitely not a good 3 point defending team, but if that kind of stat was mostly a result of bad defense, the other metrics would also light up like a christmas tree.

 

[Step-Back Lauri]

I went to deep dive a bit and its definitely not entirely clear by the numbers why those percentages are that high.

In that same stretch of 20, we have allowed the 8th fewest corner 3's to our opponents. We have seen the most above the break 3 attempts out of any team at 29.4 with a 44.6% success rate which is absurdly high.

View attachment 16148

We rank 9th in giving up wide open 3s, so there are 8 teams that give up more:

View attachment 16149

We rank 14th in giving up open 3's, and there are 4 teams (Suns, Hornets, Raptors and Bulls) that give up more 3s in both categories ("open" and "wide open").

I dont think it is luck though.... I think one key part of it is the fact that opponents feel pretty comfortable playing against us. Neither our offense or our defense puts a ton of pressure on the opponents. We are definitely not a good 3 point defending team, but if that kind of stat was mostly a result of bad defense, the other metrics would also light up like a christmas tree.

Yeah, definitely we make it too easy. Remember, when at one point it seemed someone threw season or career highs on us every second game or more? The lack of two way guards and the lack of good, defending wings makes it way easy for the hot hand if opponent's. That will naturally affect a lot for the 3pt success rate. Kris Dunn is good at holding back his guys on most nights, but that's not nearly enough.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I went to deep dive a bit and its definitely not entirely clear by the numbers why those percentages are that high.

In that same stretch of 20, we have allowed the 8th fewest corner 3's to our opponents. We have seen the most above the break 3 attempts out of any team at 29.4 with a 44.6% success rate which is absurdly high.

View attachment 16148

We rank 9th in giving up wide open 3s, so there are 8 teams that give up more:

View attachment 16149

We rank 14th in giving up open 3's, and there are 4 teams (Suns, Hornets, Raptors and Bulls) that give up more 3s in both categories ("open" and "wide open").

I dont think it is luck though.... I think one key part of it is the fact that opponents feel pretty comfortable playing against us. Neither our offense or our defense puts a ton of pressure on the opponents. We are definitely not a good 3 point defending team, but if that kind of stat was mostly a result of bad defense, the other metrics would also light up like a christmas tree.

It's luck.

Doesnt mean the defense is good or even passable, but it's not the worst 3pt defense in the NBA. Teams are shooting better than expected with the quality of shots the Jazz have given up.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Remember, when at one point it seemed someone threw season or career highs on us every second game or more?

Sure, but you only remember when this happens against the Jazz. Do you have any frame of reference for how much it happens against everyone else?

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

It wasn't meant to be a deep dive. But if 3 pt variance against us was just luck of the draw, as you concluded in the 2nd post of this thread, you wouldn't be seeing 19 out of 20 above average 3 pt performances (most of them well above league average), unless you think the Jazz are going through a 1 in 50,000 type of bad luck stretch.

Im not sure why you are being so argumentative with this.

I'm not saying it's luck as in the Jazz should have a great 3pt defense. They can be playing bad defense and be experiencing bad luck. Their defense is not as bad as the % are. You have to be stupid to think so.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I went to deep dive a bit and its definitely not entirely clear by the numbers why those percentages are that high.

In that same stretch of 20, we have allowed the 8th fewest corner 3's to our opponents. We have seen the most above the break 3 attempts out of any team at 29.4 with a 44.6% success rate which is absurdly high.

View attachment 16148

We rank 9th in giving up wide open 3s, so there are 8 teams that give up more:

View attachment 16149

We rank 14th in giving up open 3's, and there are 4 teams (Suns, Hornets, Raptors and Bulls) that give up more 3s in both categories ("open" and "wide open").

I dont think it is luck though.... I think one key part of it is the fact that opponents feel pretty comfortable playing against us. Neither our offense or our defense puts a ton of pressure on the opponents. We are definitely not a good 3 point defending team, but if that kind of stat was mostly a result of bad defense, the other metrics would also light up like a christmas tree.

The above the break 3% is a huge huge huge outlier.

 

[MTS]

Im not sure why you are being so argumentative with this.

I'm not saying it's luck as in the Jazz should have a great 3pt defense. They can be playing bad defense and be experiencing bad luck. Their defense is not as bad as the % are. You have to be stupid to think so.

Sure, and I'm not going to argue if you want to chop a handful of % points off the numbers due to the luck factor. The numbers are so high that you can definitely do that and have them still look bad.

Bad luck might be causing them to be astronomically bad instead of merely terrible, but I also think you'd have to be stupid to think that terrible defense isn't also a major contributing factor. Which brings us back to full circle and my concern with our defense going forward with Clarkson/Collins/Sexton all under contract for the next two seasons (Collins is less of a concern if we stop playing him heavy minutes at the 5).