Paul/Al: Who should we re-sign, how much should our offer be, and what will the other get in FA?

[QuinSnydersHair]

I realize trying to keep one but not the other while both are UFA's at the same exact time without simply overpaying isn't that easy. That said, what do you do?

I say we offer Paul to 4 years, 42M @ 12, 11, 10, 9. I think that would barely be enough to retain him yet keep him happy, while keeping his figures at a rate that will be very easy to trade two years later should we be shelling out big money for our young guys.

I think Al will get something like 4 years, 56M.

 

[carolinajazz]

....NBA minimum. If they don't like it.....take a hike!

 

[Zulu]

Thread #28!!!

 

[GVC]

Millsap's only averaging 15 and 7 this year. Is he really going to get $10.5mm per season? I'd love to sign Millsap to a 5 year deal, as frontloaded as possible, with a full 15% signing bonus. The extra year should make it possible to get him at a lower number per season. The frontloading and signing bonus make him much more tradeable in the future.

5-year, $50.15mm contract would look like this:

Cap Hit (with max 7.5% decreases based on base salary)

13/14: $11.5345mm
14/15: $10.78225mm
15/16: $10.03mm
16/17: $9.27775mm
17/18: $8.5255mm


Actual Salary Paid ($7.5225mm signing bonus)

13/14: $17.5525mm
14/15: $9.27775mm
15/16: $8.5255mm
16/17: $7.77325mm
17/18: $7.021mm

 

[QuinSnydersHair]

Millsap's only averaging 15 and 7 this year. Is he really going to $10.5mm per season? I'd love to sign Millsap to a 5 year deal, as frontloaded as possible, with a full 15% signing bonus. The extra year should make it possible to get him at a lower number per season. The frontloading and signing bonus make him much more tradeable in the future.

5-year, $50.15mm contract would look like this:

Cap Hit (with max 7.5% decreases)

13/14: $11.8mm
14/15: $10.915mm
15/16: $10.03mm
16/17: $9.145mm
17/18: $8.26mm


Actual Salary Paid ($7.5225mm signing bonus)

13/14: $17.818mm
14/15: $9.4105mm
15/16: $8.5255mm
16/17: $7.6405mm
17/18: $6.7555mm

Yes, I do. Unless I'm forgetting someone, the best 4/5 options out there are going to be Howard, Bynum, West, Al and Paul. The first two might as well not even count because they'll somehow or another go to one of the big city teams. That leaves three legit guys for everyone else. They'll get paid. Probably even overpaid. In fact, it wouldn't shock me if someone paid 12M per for Millsap. I wouldn't though. I'd offer him the deal I proposed (or a five at the same rate I suppose) on 7/1. If his uncle plays games and we lose him, we lose him, and like others have mentioned, Landry becomes the guy we go for at a much cheaper price tag.

Having said that, I am obviously in complete agreement on frontloading and forgot about throwing the signing bonus up front as well which I'd definitely be for. Just not sure if the Millers would.

 

[GVC]

Yes, I do. Unless I'm forgetting someone, the best 4/5 options out there are going to be Howard, Bynum, West, Al and Paul. The first two might as well not even count because they'll somehow or another go to one of the big city teams. That leaves three legit guys for everyone else. They'll get paid. Probably even overpaid. In fact, it wouldn't shock me if someone paid 12M per for Millsap..

Which teams in the market for a PF have the cap space to sign Millsap to a $12mm/year contract?

I'd offer him the deal I proposed (or a five at the same rate I suppose) on 7/1.

The salaries in your contract decrease at too high a rate. Decreases (and raises) are limited to 7.5% of the first year salary for free agents re-signing with their previous team (if there is a signing bonus, the 7.5% applies to the base salary sans bonus).

 

[GVC]

Having said that, I am obviously in complete agreement on frontloading and forgot about throwing the signing bonus up front as well which I'd definitely be for. Just not sure if the Millers would.

Teams have to spend at least 90% of the cap on payroll (actual payroll not cumulative cap hit). If the Jazz let everyone else go, and strike out on other big ticket free agents, they'll have to spend the money one way or another. Signing bonuses to free agents is the best way to bridge that cap and create longterm flexibility.

 

[Stifle Tower]

Teams have to spend at least 90% of the cap on payroll (actual payroll not cumulative cap hit). If the Jazz let everyone else go, and strike out on other big ticket free agents, they'll have to spend the money one way or another. Signing bonuses to free agents is the best way to bridge that cap and create longterm flexibility.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it was my understanding that a signing bonus was paid up front, but allocated evenly over the life of the contract in terms of calculating the cap hit. I know that's how it worked with Millsap's contract. Jazz are actually paying him less than what his cap number is for this season.

AS for declining contracts, how many players actually sign those? I think it's a pipe dream to get Paul or Al to agree to one. And it's equally unlikely to think Paul accepts an offer for less than $12M and Al for less than $15M. Al will be expecting a raise and Paul will be expecting a BIG increase.

And re: the 90% rule, if a team comes up short one year, doesn't that team just pay the difference into a player pool?

 

[GVC]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it was my understanding that a signing bonus was paid up front, but allocated evenly over the life of the contract in terms of calculating the cap hit.

Yep. That's why I listed both cap hit and salary for a hypothetical 5-year, $50.15mm Millsap contract.

AS for declining contracts, how many players actually sign those? I think it's a pipe dream to get Paul or Al to agree to one.

Why? They get just as much money, they just get it sooner. Seems to me that's better than an increasing contract.

And it's equally unlikely to think Paul accepts an offer for less than $12M and Al for less than $15M. Al will be expecting a raise and Paul will be expecting a BIG increase.

Someone has to actually agree to pay them that much. Which teams with cap space do you see offering Millsap $12mm per year?

And re: the 90% rule, if a team comes up short one year, doesn't that team just pay the difference into a player pool?

Yep. If they're going to pay that amount anyway though, they might as well pay it in a way that betters their situation down the road. Signing bonuses and frontloaded contracts do just that in years where teams would otherwise be under the 90% threshold.

 

[Stifle Tower]

AS for the question, I say keep neither. Just too expensive and not enough bang for the buck. Kanter may not be ready to start, but he needs to be at some point next season. And then you'd have a player making >$10M coming off the bench, If Kanter fails, then Utah is lottery-bound and can pick up another big. That's why both players need to be traded for assets. But KOC is too short-sighted for that. He and the Millers believe a few more wins, and perhaps grabbing the 6th seed instead of the 8th will make a HUGE difference in terms of fan support and season ticket renewals.

Jazz need to get two more 1st round picks, then have starting 5 of Mo, Burks, Hayward, Kanter and Favors. Or start Carroll at SF and bring Hayward or Burks off the bench. Those 4 draft picks can be used to obtain depth, or combined to move up and nab a good prospect at PG. A third big can be brought in on a 1-2 year deal (just like Brooklyn did with Humphries).

 

[Stifle Tower]

Yep. If they're going to pay that amount anyway though, they might as well pay it in a way that betters their situation down the road. Signing bonuses and frontloaded contracts do just that in years where teams would otherwise be under the 90% threshold.

But how do signing bonuses really matter that much. The bonus is averaged over the life of the contract. Pay out a $10M bonus and it counts $2M-$2.5M towards the 90% threshold if a contract is for 4-5 years. Players in their prime won;t want to sign declining deals. That sets their value lower for their next deal, especially now that most will be getting 4 year contracts as FA's.

AS for Millsap at $12M, Brooklyn could step in and offload Humphries in a trade. Houston will have room if they don't land Howard. Lakers could be in play if they unload Pau (or lose Howard). There are way too many scenarios to list. Jefferson and Millsap will get big contracts. You can count on it!

 

[Hotdog]

Sign neither. Trade both yesterday.

Are we seriously considering making a 3rd overall pick with a lot of upside our 3rd big?

 

[QuinSnydersHair]

Which teams in the market for a PF have the cap space to sign Millsap to a $12mm/year contract?

The salaries in your contract decrease at too high a rate. Decreases (and raises) are limited to 7.5% of the first year salary for free agents re-signing with their previous team (if there is a signing bonus, the 7.5% applies to the base salary sans bonus).

1) Houston, Charlotte, Milwaukee, Atlanta (if they want to have Horford at the 5), Cleveland (very doubtful) I think...shamsports isn't working right now for some reason; a S&T as well.
2) Thanks.

 

[GVC]

But how do signing bonuses really matter that much. The bonus is averaged over the life of the contract. Pay out a $10M bonus and it counts $2M-$2.5M towards the 90% threshold if a contract is for 4-5 years.

Team payroll, not salaries, have to reach 90% of the cap. I'm pretty sure this would include the full signing bonus. Further, actually paying a player less than their cap hit in future years makes both going over the tax more palatable and trading said player easier (since the receiving team is paying these players a more reasonable amount).

Players in their prime won;t want to sign declining deals. That sets their value lower for their next deal, especially now that most will be getting 4 year contracts as FA's.

I'm not sure why this would be the case. If Millsap were to get a 5 year deal from the Jazz this summer, he'll next be a free agent at 33.

AS for Millsap at $12M, Brooklyn could step in and offload Humphries in a trade. Houston will have room if they don't land Howard. Lakers could be in play if they unload Pau (or lose Howard). There are way too many scenarios to list. Jefferson and Millsap will get big contracts. You can count on it!

Even if Brooklyn and LA are able to unload Humphries and Pau, they'll be way over the cap. I think Houston would be a perfect spot for Millsap, but that leaves only two teams bidding against each other, with the Jazz able to give an extra year. I just don't see another team paying $12mm per year for a 15 and 7 big under the new salary cap. Look what David West got 2 years ago.

 

[GVC]

Sign neither. Trade both yesterday.

Are we seriously considering making a 3rd overall pick with a lot of upside our 3rd big?

Why not? There are 96 minutes at the 4 and 5, and Millsap can play spot minutes at the 3. Does Kanter need 50 minutes per game?

 

[GVC]

1) Houston, Charlotte, Milwaukee, Atlanta (if they want to have Horford at the 5), Cleveland (very doubtful) I think...shamsports isn't working right now for some reason; a S&T as well.

Fair enough. David West was 30 when he signed with Indiana 2 years ago. He got a 2 year, $20mm contract for similar production.

 

[QuinSnydersHair]

Fair enough. David West was 30 when he signed with Indiana 2 years ago. He got a 2 year, $20mm contract for similar production.

With Lin, Harden, and Parsons, I think he'd fit really nicely in Houston actually. Up tempo!!!

 

[GVC]

With Lin, Harden, and Parsons, I think he'd fit really nicely in Houston actually. Up tempo!!!

Yeah. Millsap is best running the court and playing off the ball in the halfcourt. You put him on a team with perimeter players who can push the tempo and break defenses down off the bounce, and he becomes a pretty dangerous player. Millsap would be a huge signing for Houston.

 

[Jazz4ever]

Millsap's only averaging 15 and 7 this year. Is he really going to $10.5mm per season? I'd love to sign Millsap to a 5 year deal, as frontloaded as possible, with a full 15% signing bonus. The extra year should make it possible to get him at a lower number per season. The frontloading and signing bonus make him much more tradeable in the future.

5-year, $50.15mm contract would look like this:

Cap Hit (with max 7.5% decreases)

13/14: $11.8mm
14/15: $10.915mm
15/16: $10.03mm
16/17: $9.145mm
17/18: $8.26mm


Actual Salary Paid ($7.5225mm signing bonus)

13/14: $17.5525mm
14/15: $9.27775mm
15/16: $8.5255mm
16/17: $7.77325mm
17/18: $7.021mm

I would do either one in a heartbeat. But see several teams doing 60 million over 5 years.

Indiana - may choose to go after Sap instead of resigning West who is 4 years older. Granger expires in a year so gives them the overhead to do it. They are in win now mode and Sap in his prime makes sense.
Dallas - Cuban is unpredictable but his bank account must be respected. As long as they have Dirk he will be in win now mode and Millsap would would be a talent infusion for them.
Philly - they have nothing resembling a PF, although if they choose to max Bynum Sap will likely be too rich for them.
Phoenix - Sap would be an attractive piece to pair with Dragic and Gortat. They have no future prospects at all they have to worry about paying.
Portland - Always a threat for our players of course and thanks to the Roy amnesty have a ton of space next year. They might like Hickson enough to resign him cheaper but consider them a huge threat.
Houston - they have a ton of middling lottery PFs but none are looking promising. Being in semi win now mode, and Morey being an advanced stats guy, Sap seems to be a fit.
Charlotte - they flat out just need talent at any position and probably won't draw interest from many FAs. Sap himself may decline them.
Atlanta - The Hawks have about 18 million on the books next year and Smith most likely won't resign. Teague will require a little cash to keep but they could still afford to give both Jefferson and Millsap huge contracts.

 

[Hotdog]

Why not? There are 96 minutes at the 4 and 5, and Millsap can play spot minutes at the 3. Does Kanter need 50 minutes per game?

Why not?


Because there is something called the human element.

No, we don't want to bend over backward kissing players asses, but we have to reasonable in our understanding what players want.

Lets just assume Kanter becomes a 20/10 allstar level talent. I don't think thats a giant leap of faith. Do you think he is goung to be cool with riding the bench for the next 4 years here? We are already playing with fire with what we are doing. You think they don't notice they are missing out on Allstar festivities and endorsement deals? You think their agent, family, friends, and media won't be in their ears telling them they would be a lot better off somewhere else? This is a real issue. We can't pretend it doesn't exist and that he will be a team guy and take the pay cuts, the playing time cuts, and the recognition cuts in stride because he is a good guy. This isn't the Malone and stockton era. Or are we ok with having to start all over again when we have to trade him because we don't think we can re-sign him, just like Dwill. Is the sloution then to bench whoever we re-sign in favor of Kanter then? How well do you think that goes over with them? That just asking for chemistry issues and a player unhappy who will want a trade

We already made our bed. Favors and Kanter should be the projected two starters starting next year. Not Millsap or Jefferson. We should be using their value to plug obvious holes in our roster. We don't want all our value stuffed away in 3 bigs when we could use some help at the 3 and the pg. Get an obvious back up big that would be willing to except his role.

Believe it or not, chemistry and roles play a big part in building a team.


Mark my words, if we sign Jefferson or Millsap, at some point one of our bigs will be unhappy, guaranteed.